Hey there again, and welcome to the much-anticipated sequel to the first Shot Takers mailbag of mid-December. Dana O’Neil and I just couldn’t stop ourselves from answering another round of your questions.
What’s that? We needn’t bother? But, no, seriously, don’t bother? Please. It’s our pleasure.
In Part 1, we tackled Louisville’s demise, the state of the Big Ten and more. Part 2 promises to be just as exciting. Because Part 2s are always better than the first installment.
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How do you see the Big East playing out compared to preseason expectations? – Kevin D.
Dana: A lot of those expectations were based not merely on the top of the conference — Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton — being good but the middle being competitive, too. The first group has accorded itself appropriately; it’s the second I still have questions about.
There were probably a few too many presumptions, but then again, isn’t that what preseason expectations are about? We presumed Villanova would right itself. We presumed Rick Pitino would right St. John’s in five minutes. We presumed Xavier and Sean Miller would be Xavier and Sean Miller.
So far not quite. Villanova is as disjointed as its resume shows. Wins over North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA. Losses to St. Joe’s, Penn and Drexel. The Wildcats’ inconsistencies stem largely from lousy 3-point shooting (32 percent) and yet an insistence on launching 3s. Kyle Netpune is also still going with a 10-man rotation, which means he doesn’t yet have a rotation. The Wildcats sort of need to figure out who they are.
As for St. John’s, it was probably unfair to expect Pitino to essentially roll out an entirely new roster, recreated on the fly, and turn it into NCAA Tournament magic. But it’s Pitino, so we did that, and counting on the Red Storm weighed heavily on the Big East’s projections. It has not yet materialized. Losses to Michigan, Dayton and … ouch, Boston College. KenPom’s projected 16-15 finish suddenly doesn’t seem outlandish.
Xavier has 10 new players and no Zach Freemantle or Jerome Hunter because of injury. Bumpy is understandable. A loss to Delaware? Not so much. That spurred a players-only meeting, which led to the emotional catharsis of a win over crosstown rival Cincinnati, but can it hold up? Hunter at least is expected back for the Big East season. That will be big.
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Brian: Everyone might have underestimated the amount of continued transition in the league. We woke up Wednesday morning to find UConn, Marquette and Creighton ranked 4-5-6 nationally on KenPom, which tracks with every expectation. Those extremely high-end performances may have obscured the fact that only one other coach in the league is even in his third year on the job: Tony Stubblefield at DePaul, running the 203rd-best team in the country according to those same KenPom ratings.
The other coaches and programs? Still legitimately in the throes of building something, which almost inevitably creates inconsistencies. The transfer portal obviously allows coaches to amass talent and experience quicker than ever. But it doesn’t necessarily hasten the acceptance and execution of scheme and philosophies and whatever new rules the new coach set internally. The Big East is third in conference RPI, but those goliaths at the top certainly are doing the heavy lifting.
We had questions about Kim English’s first year at Providence … and my appraisal is that the Friars look like a team in their first year with a new coach. The offensive numbers in particular — Providence ranked 115th nationally in adjusted efficiency as of Wednesday — feel indicative of ongoing adjustments. But English has the Friars playing top 20 defense.
They’re on a decent trajectory, as are Butler and Georgetown and St. John’s, but that doesn’t mean they’re exceptionally good. That’s saved for the contenders at the top, who are who we said they were.
Is it time for Indiana to consider a coaching change? Woodson’s in his third season, and his past two teams never developed to their potential and this team is struggling. – Donnie H.
Brian: Isn’t it always time for Indiana to consider a coaching change? Like, isn’t that the operating principle of Indiana basketball since the turn of the century? Hoosiers fans need food, water, air, shelter and a prospective candidates list to survive.
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Anyway, they gave their head men’s coach a $1 million per year raise in — checks notes — August! So that’s $4.2 million a year, reportedly, through 2027. And unless something changed from the original contract Woodson signed with the school, his buyout before April 1, 2025 is 100 percent of the money left on his deal. Also, Indiana has made two straight NCAA Tournament appearances and won a game in the event last spring. Meanwhile, Kel’El Ware went from completely lost at Oregon to very much again an NBA prospect with some development by this coaching staff. You make quick changes when you’re Louisville or DePaul and the product is among the worst in the country and there are few signs of competency to fix it. This is not that.
I understand the angst. As of Wednesday morning, Indiana has attempted the second-fewest 3-pointers in the country (114) and is only making 27.2 percent of those, which, whoo boy. Stylistically, Woodson’s current scheme cuts against every accepted tenet of efficient modern offensive basketball. And the Hoosiers aren’t defending at a good enough level — good enough, never mind elite — to ignore that. All of this lies at Woodson’s feet. My guess is the price tag on a firing and the lack of utter bottoming-out earns him at least another year. But it’s Indiana, so I could be wrong by the time the Kansas game ends.
Dana: At some point, I believe exhaling would help. If you count the Dan Dakich temp job (and let’s), Mike Woodson is Indiana’s sixth coach in 17 years, and third in six. That’s, um, a lot of turnover in a sport where quick fixes are rare.
I am not arguing that the Indiana product is not currently ideal. Along with the aforementioned statistics from Brian, there are the results — the Hoosiers got tossed by UConn and Auburn, teams they expect to be competitive with and/or beat. But when Woodson first was hired, people thought he couldn’t recruit. He just grabbed Liam McNeeley, a consensus five-star over, among others, Kansas. That’s three five-stars in as many years. Of course one could argue the counterpoint — THEN HE CAN’T COACH. OK, fine.
But the Hoosiers have made the tournament in each of his seasons, which is more than Archie Miller could say and while perhaps folks would like to get into the Dusty May lottery, a little patience might be worth considering.
Which players look like they benefited the best from transferring through the portal? – Mike B.
Dana: The big question is how to measure that success, right? To me the answer is fit and opportunity. Move to find a place that suits you better, and/or offers you more of a chance to shine.
Taking that into consideration, I’ll start with Dalton Knecht. He was a very good player at Northern Colorado, and how many people really knew or cared? Now he’s tearing it up for Tennessee, the 12th-best team in the country, and everyone knows who he is. Per CBB Analytics, he ranks in the 98th percentile for points per 40 minutes (24.2) and 79th for effective field-goal percentage (55). He needs work defensively, especially at the level that Rick Barnes wants his team to play defense, but he’ll get better because Barnes won’t have it any other way. This is exactly why you transfer — find a place to succeed and work on your weaknesses.
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Things have gone similarly well for Lance Jones at Purdue. The Boilermakers needed more athletic explosion, and found it via the former Southern Illinois Saluki. He’s made the defense better (he leads the team in steal percentage) and is averaging 16.2 points per 40 minutes, according to CBB Analytics, on the No. 3 team in the country.
Win. Win.
Brian: I’m going with two guards who got what they wanted, which is not necessarily automatic these days — and certainly not when you leave a lot of production behind at your former stop. LJ Cryer went from among the top options at Baylor — where he scored 788 points across three seasons — to absolutely the top option at Houston. He’s taking about three more shots a game, and his usage rate is up about 3 percent, which are incremental but notable bumps. The key stat, though, is a Win Shares per 40 minutes rate of .319, as compared to .132 during his junior year in Waco. In short, Cryer is significantly more important for a team ranked No. 1 in both KenPom and Evan Miyakawa’s rankings as of Wednesday morning. That’s making the most of a change, on both sides.
And then there’s Caleb Love, whom I visited with during the preseason. The escape from North Carolina was turbulent and necessary. He could’ve landed at Michigan but for a transfer credit snafu and been immersed in yet another fiasco of bad vibes. Instead? He lands at Arizona, and while his overall shooting and scoring isn’t significantly better, he’s averaging seven rebounds and 6.3 assists per 40 minutes — both nearly doubling his previous best rates. Also, he’s playing for a No. 1 team that, this time, looks capable of actually staying there. Lots of chapters left in Love’s story but going from miserable to wildly happy sounds like a pretty strong trade, at minimum.
GO DEEPER
In Arizona, will Caleb Love see the light?
How good is Princeton? — Rich G.
Brian: We usually alternate who answers a question first, and it is my turn, but I’m also not the person who lives a short drive from Princeton’s campus and who may or may not be married to a Princeton employee. So I might not be the preferred expert here. But I’ll take a stab and then Dana can tell me how wrong I am.
It looks like Mitch Henderson’s best team, or at least looks capable of being that. The offensive efficiency is elite (22nd nationally as of Wednesday morning) but the size is not (299th nationally in average height, per KenPom), which means the Tigers are absolutely positioned to ruin someone’s NCAA Tournament. But their best win is Rutgers and they aren’t getting an at-large bid. So … they’re good? But also kind of the same as every good Ivy League team? Am I missing anything?
Dana: Some folks around here (in my house, perhaps) were trying to argue that the Tigers might merit an at-large bid. That was before they lost to St. Joe’s. Even before that I tried to temper expectations. Having watched Penn in person against Kentucky and spied a little bit of Malik Mack at Harvard, I think the Ivy League is pretty good and Princeton is the best of the bunch. But this is not the 1998 Tigers with Gabe Lewullis and Steve Goodrich, which earned a No. 5 seed after ranking as high as No. 8, and the body of work is the body of work.
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That said, I 100 percent believe that if the Tigers earn the automatic bid, some other coach is going to want to vomit on Selection Sunday. Because Princeton, no shock, runs really good stuff and executes its offense beautifully. Xaivian Lee is a revelation. He looks like my son — which is to say, like he needs a hamburger — and yet is dropping 19.5 points per game, after averaging 4.8 a year ago. Caeden Pierce and Matt Allocco are terrific, and if freshman Dalen Davis can continue as he has in the last three games, the Tigers will be incredibly hard to beat in the Ancient Eight.
(Top photo of Mike Woodson: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)