Not much has changed since my last Minnesota Twins mailbag column.
Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagán have signed elsewhere, I can now say I’ve been to Nashville, Tenn., and I’ve attended another Rule 5 draft where the Twins didn’t pick anyone, but for the most part their offseason remains in a holding pattern as they wait for the free-agent and trade markets to shake out.
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That’s not unexpected, but it’s also not very exciting, so let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your minds about an ever-patient team apparently letting the offseason come to them.
Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
Do you see the Twins being active at all in free agency? — Ben Z.
Not really. My assumption is that whatever free-agent signings the Twins make this offseason are likely to be of the inexpensive one-year variety. There just isn’t room for more than that given ownership’s self-imposed payroll limitations, but that could change if the front office clears some salary by trading away veterans.
Along those lines, I have three core predictions about the Twins’ offseason:
1. Their most impactful move(s) will come via trade, not free agency.
2. They will trade some or all of Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Christian Vázquez and Kyle Farmer.
3. They will acquire a playoff-caliber starting pitcher.
With news that payroll is to be cut, why should we have any optimism that the Twins will be better than last season? — Jim N.
Regardless of the circumstances, I believe lowering payroll following the team’s first playoff series win in two decades is a short-sighted mistake, but I’m neither a billionaire nor someone billionaires ask for advice. To me, spending some tiny fraction of personal wealth to keep a team’s momentum rolling and a fan base’s morale soaring should be a no-brainer, but Twins ownership disagrees. So be it.
With that said, it’s misguided to think that the 2024 payroll being $130 million instead of $155 million is some monumental, franchise-crippling change. Sure, it limits the Twins’ offseason options and reduces their margin for error, which rightfully has fans frustrated, but it doesn’t fundamentally alter the outlook for an upcoming season in which they may still have the division’s highest payroll.
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If the Twins are going to have a successful 2024, it will be because stars Carlos Correa, Pablo López, Byron Buxton and Jhoan Duran are healthy and thriving, Joe Ryan, Alex Kirilloff, Bailey Ober and Ryan Jeffers become reliable veterans and youngsters Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee, Louie Varland and Matt Wallner emerge as the next core. That has nothing to do with payroll.
Swing & a miss 🔥
Pablo Lopez keeps the Astros off the board!
📺: @FS1 pic.twitter.com/ROtthFlD5Q
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 9, 2023
What are the Twins’ odds of winning the division with this roster? — A.D.
It’s way too early for meaningful projections, but it’s safe to assume the Twins would be favored to repeat as American League Central champions if the 2024 season started today. It would also be really cold for the home opener.
FanGraphs’ initial projections, based on fluid depth-chart estimates, have the Twins at 90 wins, followed by the Guardians (85), Tigers (81), Royals (78) and White Sox (70). Those same projections have the Twins as the fifth-best team in the AL, behind the Astros (95), Yankees (95), Rays (94) and Blue Jays (91). They won 87 games and had the AL’s seventh-best record last season.
BetMGM has the Twins at minus-125 to win the division, which means you’d have to bet $125 to win $100, making them obvious favorites. By comparison, the same $100 bet on the Guardians (+300) or Tigers (+325) would win $300 and $325, respectively. And the Royals (+2000) and White Sox (+4000) are big long shots, paying 20-to-1 and 40-to-1, respectively.
There’s understandably been a lot of focus on the Twins’ plans to lower payroll and how that will limit their offseason options, but that’s unlikely to change the fact that they’re a good team in a bad division with a clear path to the playoffs.
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If the Twins are in one of the largest media markets, why are they considered a small-market team? Shouldn’t they be a mid-market team? — Nathan M.
Using market sizes as defined by Nielsen, the Twins rank 20th out of 30 teams.
During the past five seasons, the Twins’ payrolls have ranked 17th, 16th, 17th, 17th and 18th out of 30 teams.
There’s room to quibble about a spot or two, and about the “small” or “medium” labels, but the Twins’ spending has been commensurate with their market size.
What are Joe Mauer’s odds of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer? — Scott A.
I don’t think Joe Mauer will reach the 75 percent threshold on this first ballot, although most of the early ballots being made public with votes for Mauer have convinced me it’s at least possible.
What seems clear is that he’s going to get more than 50 percent of the vote in his first year of eligibility, which all but guarantees he’ll be inducted eventually, and probably within the next two to three years. That’s reading into the small sample of ballots made public, as well as personal conversations with voters at the Winter Meetings, but I feel confident in saying Mauer is going to be a Hall of Famer.
I’ve long suspected Mauer’s greatness would be more fully appreciated outside of Minnesota, where his flaws too often received an outsized level of focus, and thankfully that appears to be the case. Mauer is going to be a Hall of Famer. It’s just a matter of time.
🔓 Digital vault: unlocked. 🔓
When @Twins legend Joe Mauer suited up in catcher's gear one last time at Target Field. pic.twitter.com/LrgPX3BV41
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 19, 2020
How do you see Royce Lewis’ workload in 2024? Could you envision a lighter version of the Byron Buxton treatment? — Jacob L.
I’d expect Lewis to have a pretty standard workload. Between returning from an oblique injury on Aug. 15 and injuring his hamstring on Sept. 19, he started 32 consecutive games, 25 of which were at third base.
Asked about Lewis’ health status at the Winter Meetings, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said, “I think we are all pretty excited about getting to spring training with him healthy for the first time in a while.”
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They’re expecting big things from Lewis in 2024, and that includes playing just about every day.
Who will be the Twins’ starting center fielder on Opening Day? — Cory M.
Based on the Twins’ renewed sense of optimism, I’ll say Buxton, with the caveat that I’d hesitate to call it “likely” at this point in the long process. We’ve all been through this enough times to know better, obviously. If it’s not Buxton, then my guesses would be Willi Castro, an outside acquisition to be named, Austin Martin and Nick Gordon, in that order.
“We’ve gone through some challenges with Byron in center over the last couple seasons,” Falvey said at the Winter Meetings. “We also know if he’s healthy and in a good place, there is nobody we’re going to get that’s going to have as much of an impact as Byron Buxton playing center field. That’s pretty basic.”
Do the Twins view Alex Kirilloff as an outfield option or is he mostly a first baseman at this point? — Jonas B.
Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli indicated at the Winter Meetings that they see Kirilloff primarily as a first baseman/designated hitter, but it’s possible he could still get some outfield action depending on how the roster takes shape.
Kirilloff’s history of wrist and shoulder injuries is a factor. Twins officials fear the full-speed diving more common to the outfield put him at increased injury risk, although it’s worth noting that Kirilloff hurt his shoulder last season while playing first base.
To my eyes, at least, Kirilloff is slightly better at first base than in the outfield, but he’s yet to show the ability to be an above-average defender at any position. His usage will come down to comfort level, injury risk and roster fit, and right now all of them point more to first base.
Is there a chance Brooks Lee earns a spot on the big-league club right out of spring training? — Kris H.
Possible, but not likely. I’d view Lee’s situation as similar to Julien’s last spring, when Twins coaches were very clearly buzzing about Julien to the point that a midseason call-up seemed inevitable. Sure enough, Julien was called up for the first time in mid-April, got another call-up in mid-May and joined the lineup for good in mid-June. Lee is more or less at that point now.
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They’d love it if Lee crushed Triple-A pitching for a couple months and forced the issue, but if the need arises before then, the Twins won’t hesitate to turn to the 22-year-old prospect like they did with Julien last season. Lee is a big part of their future and pretty close to being a big part of their present, and Julien, Lewis and Wallner showed the impact MLB-ready top prospects can make.
BROOKS LEE GRAND SLAM 💣
His opposite field shot breaks the game open for the @StPaulSaints
🚀 104.1 mph
🚀 26 degrees
🚀 415 feet pic.twitter.com/cLmxJ8Ai5P— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) September 6, 2023
If the Twins trade Kyle Farmer, who fills in at shortstop when Carlos Correa isn’t in the lineup? — Josh D.
Lewis, Castro and Gordon are capable of playing shortstop to give Correa a day off, or even several days off. If a longer-term fill-in were needed, calling up Lee would be an option, especially midseason.
When the Twins traded for Farmer last November, they weren’t expecting to re-sign Correa and needed a starting shortstop. That’s no longer the case, meaning the 33-year-old Farmer and his projected $6.6 million salary could be moved.
How confident are the Twins in Chris Paddack staying healthy and throwing 160 innings in the rotation? — Scott A.
I’d probably take the under on Chris Paddack throwing 160 innings, but that’s true of nearly any pitcher. In general, the Twins seem very optimistic about his return from a second Tommy John surgery, slotting him into the rotation.
Paddack was very diligent with his rehab, the Twins avoided the temptation of rushing him back and when he returned in September as a reliever it was tough not to be impressed with how good he looked. I’d say 120-140 innings is a more realistic target, but much like we saw from Maeda last season, the Twins believe Paddack can return from elbow surgery to make a real impact in the rotation.
Do you see the Twins making a run at someone like Frankie Montas after an injury/poor season? — Jonny N.
If the Twins sign a free-agent pitcher for more than $5 million or so, I’d bet on it being a higher-upside starter coming off an injury. Frankie Montas definitely fits that description, and they had interest in him at the 2022 trade deadline.
Luis Severino would have been a similar bounce-back fit, but he already signed a one-year, $12 million contract with the Mets. James Paxton is also a perennial reclamation projection option, and there are others.
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How do the Twins feel about Josh Winder and his 2024 role? — Colby G.
Similar to last season, Josh Winder is likely to be used as a multi-inning reliever and figures to be a frequent passenger on the Triple-A shuttle.
He’s not without upside, but Winder is 27 years old with a mediocre 4.51 ERA and 75-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 101 2/3 innings for the Twins the past two seasons. He’s struggled way too much with injuries and durability to move forward as a starter, and he’s yet to show the bat-missing ability as a reliever to be counted on in a late-inning role.
If you could travel back in time to before you were born and see one baseball game, which one would it be? — Matt G.
I would go back in time to the first Twins game Patrick Reusse covered in the 1960s. I’d sit next to him in the press box and casually push the conversation to how on-base percentage and slugging percentage are more telling than batting average or how ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio are more revealing than wins, and various other now-common beliefs that would have been bizarre back then.
Why? I just think an alternate reality in which a new-school, stat-head Reusse wrote about baseball for the past 50 years would have been really fun. And as a bonus, I’d also get to watch Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew and Tony Oliva.
(Photo of Mauer: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)