Cover 7 | Thursday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Thursday, Mike Sando examines an emerging storyline around NFL quarterbacking.
Fifty NFL coaches and executives were not ready to crown San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy entering the 2023 season. Some were more optimistic than others about the new offense Lamar Jackson would be running for the Baltimore Ravens. There wasn’t much new to say about the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott entering his eighth season.
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What about now?
Four-plus months after publishing my 10th annual Quarterback Tiers survey, I’ve circled back with eight of the 50 voters for updated perspectives on the most interesting QBs. Their thoughts appear below.
Only veteran quarterbacks were included in the survey. They remain grouped below within the tiers as voted during the offseason. Purdy had started only five regular-season games and was coming off elbow surgery at the time. He will climb in the 2024 edition next summer, but how high?
Tier 1 revisited
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
| Rank | QB | Votes by Tier | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | 50 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 1.00 | |
2 | 49 | 01 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 1.02 | |
3 | 44 | 06 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 1.12 | |
4 | 30 | 20 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 1.40 | |
5 | 29 | 21 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 1.42 |
Three of the five top-tier quarterbacks suffered season-ending injuries, leaving Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as the survivors.
Most voters qualified their praise for Joe Burrow entering the season with concerns about his durability. One voter predicted Aaron Rodgers would be vulnerable to lower-leg injuries playing 14 games on artificial surfaces this season, compared to four while with Green Bay in 2022. Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles tendon only four plays into his season.
Top-tier quarterbacks typically enjoy longevity without missing many games. They know how to play and tend to be durable. In 2022, the six top-tier quarterbacks made all 100 regular-season starts available to them. In 2021, when Watson didn’t play, the four other Tier 1 quarterbacks started 64 of 68 games. This season, it will be 58 of 85 if Mahomes and Allen start their teams’ remaining games.
Offensive production is down across the league, even for some of the top-tier quarterbacks. While no one is necessarily reassessing Mahomes at this point, Justin Herbert and Allen invite conversation.
Herbert’s Chargers ranked fourth in EPA per play through Week 11. They plummeted to 11th with three successive abysmal games on offense before a beaten-up Herbert landed on injured reserve. Despite the Chargers’ losing record, the voters consulted here seemed unwavering on Herbert as a top-tier quarterback. Some called the talent around him overrated, while questioning the coaching in end-of-game situations.
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“He shredded us,” one voter whose team faced Herbert said. “Outstanding player. Not too many guys I would pick ahead of him. The argument will be, well, he doesn’t win and hasn’t been good in two-minute and end of games. I can’t speak to that. What I see is, it doesn’t feel like they are losing because of him. If anything, they are good because of him.”
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A different voter whose team faced Herbert said he would move the Chargers’ quarterback into the top tier after having Herbert in Tier 2 before the season.
“He took what we gave him, he made throws under duress, he made throws in big situations. We tried to rattle him and he still made a bunch of plays,” this voter said. “We would play him a little differently now. I think he’s up there with those top guys.”
Allen’s Buffalo Bills have also failed to meet expectations, but not because of their quarterback, who ranks fifth in EPA per pass play, one spot ahead of Mahomes.
“He is going to be questioned for some of the decision-making and rightfully so, but again, who are you going to choose over him?” one voter said. “No one I know wants any of the Tier 2 quarterbacks over him.”
Tier 2 revisited
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
| Rank | QB | Votes by Tier | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
6 | 10 | 38 | 02 | 00 | 0 | 1.84 | |
7 | 08 | 37 | 05 | 00 | 00 | 1.94 | |
8 | 03 | 33 | 14 | 00 | 00 | 2.22 | |
9 | 01 | 36 | 13 | 00 | 00 | 2.24 | |
10 | 01 | 32 | 17 | 00 | 00 | 2.32 | |
11 | 01 | 31 | 17 | 01 | 00 | 2.36 | |
12 | 00 | 25 | 25 | 00 | 00 | 2.50 |
Prescott stands out among Tier 2 while riding an eight-game stretch with 23 touchdown passes, two interceptions and a 118.5 passer rating. Since 1970, only Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan have posted higher ratings on as many pass attempts over an eight-game span within a season, per Pro Football Reference.
A hot eight-game stretch following an underwhelming start to the season isn’t going to override eight years of evaluation, but Prescott’s fresh start with coach Mike McCarthy calling plays does merit discussion.
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“I feel Dak needs to finish a season to show what he really is,” one voter said. “When you play the Arizona Cardinals and their game plan is to make Dak beat them, and he can’t beat them, you are not Tier 1. Now, everyone has bad games, but I feel like that is Dallas in general — blowing people out, getting killed by San Francisco.”
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The Cowboys have evolved their offense since losing to Arizona in Week 3 and San Francisco in Week 5. They are more effectively featuring CeeDee Lamb, making better use of motion and gaining momentum in McCarthy’s first season calling plays for Dallas. Oddsmakers favor Prescott to win MVP. QB Tiers voters have been impressed as well, although they would like more evidence in big moments.
“They do good stuff on offense, they have enough weapons and Dak can execute,” another voter said. “When they play the really good teams and the pressure gets on him, it can get hit or miss. I want to see Dak do it when it matters.”
There was hope entering the season that Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence might climb into Tier 1. Both have shown toughness by playing through injuries. Hurts has won without the defensive support he enjoyed last season, but his Eagles have been blown out by a combined 75-32 margin over the past two weeks. Voters want to see how these quarterbacks finish.
Lamar Jackson’s transition to a more conventional pass offense has gone well enough to bridge some of the gap between the eight voters placing him in Tier 1 before the season (the entire offense runs through him) and the five who had him in Tier 3 (pure-pass deficiencies are a deal-breaker, and Jackson has struggled to hold up physically).
“I think he’s a 2,” said one of the voters who placed Jackson in Tier 3 before the season. “Even though he is going to miss some throws, he can make enough — it’s more than enough. He is going to make some difference-making throws that beat you.”
Two of the eight quarterbacks who were voted into Tier 2 are finished for the season, which means five of the 12 players in the top two tiers are out. Kirk Cousins was validating his inclusion in Tier 2 before suffering a torn Achilles tendon. Deshaun Watson struggled enough before landing on injured reserve for one voter to suggest his days as a quality QB are finished.
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“Yeah, I think he’s done,” this voter said. “He has always been a guy who holds the ball. He has always pressured himself. They need to call the game with him like they need to call it without him: heavy screen game, heavy run game, 12 personnel, quarterback keepers.”
Matthew Stafford is the other Tier 2 quarterback of note. He appears reborn after age and injuries dragged him down last season.
“You could make him a 1,” an opposing defensive coach said. “He is still the Matthew Stafford of 10 years ago. Elite arm, tough as can be, will take shots, get up and keep slinging it. Will throw you a pick. Wherever you felt Stafford has been in his career — usually, people will say he is a 1 that will play to the level of a 2 at times — that is still where I would say he is at. He is a competitor. I weirdly hope he does not retire. He is good for the game.”
Tier 3 revisited
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
| Rank | QB | Votes by Tier | |
|---|---|---|---|
13 | 01 | 18 | 31 | 00 | 00 | 2.60 | |
14 | 00 | 18 | 32 | 00 | 00 | 2.64 | |
15 | 00 | 17 | 33 | 00 | 00 | 2.66 | |
16 | 00 | 11 | 37 | 02 | 00 | 2.82 | |
17 | 00 | 07 | 41 | 02 | 00 | 2.90 | |
18 | 00 | 07 | 38 | 05 | 00 | 2.96 | |
19 | 00 | 04 | 43 | 03 | 00 | 2.98 | |
20 | 00 | 07 | 36 | 07 | 00 | 3.00 | |
21 | 00 | 05 | 34 | 11 | 00 | 3.12 | |
22 | 00 | 01 | 42 | 05 | 02 | 3.16 | |
23 | 00 | 00 | 37 | 13 | 00 | 3.26 |
A case could be made for moving Tua Tagovailoa and Jared Goff into Tier 2.
“I think he is a 2 now,” a voter said of Tagovailoa after facing the Dolphins. “His vision is ridiculous. He is not overly talented. He can’t move. But he can throw it so early into holes nobody else will, so that he gets more than what his talent allows because of his mental capacity. I like him. He is as accurate as anybody in the NFL. But if they did not have those two receivers, he cannot carry the offense.”
That sounds like a 2.5.
“The system is good and he is getting the ball out, but to me, part of being a 2 is being transferrable,” another voter said of Tagovailoa. “Can I pick him up and drop him onto another contender? I don’t know if that is the case.”
The love for Goff is also conditional.
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“I’m not paying him like a 2 if he hits free agency and I need a quarterback, unless I hire (Lions offensive coordinator) Ben Johnson as my head coach,” said a voter whose team faced the Lions.
Voters see Goff as very good when conditions are optimal.
“He did not look very comfortable out in the cold last week (in Chicago), and it wasn’t really that cold,” another voter said.
Justin Fields drew five Tier 2 votes in the offseason from voters betting on his upside. It’s difficult to imagine five voters tiering him that high now. The conversation surrounding Fields now sounds similar to the conversation surrounding him before the season.
“The Minnesota Monday night game is indicative of the kid,” said one of the five Tier 2 Fields voters. “He has some really good plays, he has some really bad plays. He has talent, but then, ‘Oh, man, what are you doing?’ I think they probably make a move at the position. They say potential can get you fired, but if you can hone in that ability he has — he can throw the ball, he can run the ball — there is no reason to say he could not develop on a Jalen Hurts-type track. I do not know if that is in the kid, but that is what you would envision.”
Voters see Russell Wilson as having stopped his free fall enough to remain in Tier 3 as a game manager.
“They are winning and he is doing a nice job, but Sean (Payton) is banking on turnovers, playing defense and Russell making one or two plays a game,” one voter said.
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Another voter predicted Wilson would not be in Payton’s long-term plans at the quarterback’s current price.
“You don’t think Jarrett Stidham can throw for 138 yards a game?” this voter asked, referring to the Broncos’ current No. 2 QB. “Do you really think Sean Payton wants to be this run-heavy, 21-, 22-, 12-personnel conservative offense? I think he is doing what he has to do to win right now.”
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Geno Smith, who replaced Wilson in Seattle, has also settled into Tier 3.
“I don’t think Geno can win a Super Bowl without an elite team around him,” said a defensive coach who faced Seattle. “He is going to keep his team right where they deserve to be. He is not bad. He is not going to turn a great defense and OK offense into a losing team. But he is not going to take the team they have and elevate it.”
Voters haven’t seen enough from Kyler Murray so far to make a meaningful judgment.
They’ve seen enough from Derek Carr to fear the New Orleans Saints’ quarterback could be nearing the end.
“I think Josh McDaniels was vindicated for moving on from Carr, which is ironic when you look at how bad his decision-making was to go with Jimmy Garoppolo,” said a voter whose team faced the Saints. “It just proves that last year Josh did a lot with something that just doesn’t work, leadership wise and the whole thing.”
A voter whose team faced Carr in the AFC West for years thought Carr’s fundamentals had suffered.
“It is almost like Jon Gruden reeled him in, got him playing well, he carried it over for a while last year, got loose with some stuff, got benched, came back this year, has a free rein and is taking advantage of it, and it is not as good,” this voter said.
Tier 4 revisited
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.
| RANK | QB | VOTES BY TIER | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
24 | 00 | 01 | 23 | 26 | 00 | 3.50 | |
25 | 00 | 00 | 24 | 26 | 00 | 3.52 | |
26 | 00 | 00 | 01 | 49 | 00 | 3.98 | |
26 | 00 | 00 | 12 | 27 | 11 | 3.98 | |
28 | 00 | 00 | 01 | 47 | 02 | 4.02 | |
29 | 00 | 00 | 01 | 44 | 05 | 4.08 | |
30 | 00 | 00 | 03 | 22 | 25 | 4.44 |
The 49ers’ Purdy fell on the border of Tier 3 (solid starter) and Tier 4 (not enough information) entering 2023 after producing at a high level through his first five starts and two full playoff games last season. My sense is that he’ll command a good number of Tier 2 votes in the coming offseason, if his current production continues.
“I think he’s smart, I think he’s accurate, I think he has more elusiveness than people give him credit for and he’s young, so he’s still got an opportunity to grow and get better,” said a defensive coach whose team faced the 49ers.
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This coach said he would place Purdy in Tier 2 right now.
“He has great command of the offense, he makes the throws he needs to make in that offense,” this coach said. “If they have to play at the end of a game in a two-minute situation and move the ball and win, that is the game you want to play with the 49ers. You want it to come down to the wire and see if they can drop back play after play and make the throws in an obvious passing situation.
“Can Purdy do that? Mmmm, yes and no. He did it well enough against Cleveland to get them in position to get the field goal, but needed a pass-interference penalty on third-and-10, and then he threw two picks against Minnesota.”
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Two types of quarterbacks tend to produce the widest spreads in voting. One is the quarterback whose rushing ability helps cover for passing imperfections that tend to show up in the playoffs or when his team’s defense falters. The other is the “system” quarterback who benefits disproportionately from his scheme and the players around him. Even when these types of quarterbacks are highly productive, they fall short of achieving top-tier recognition until voters think they can handle the “pure-passing” component.
Put another way: Whereas defenses braced themselves when circumstances required prime Peyton Manning or Tom Brady to throw on every down, they relish every opportunity to get the running or system quarterbacks into those situations.
“Purdy is a good player in that system, and saying that he is a system quarterback is not a bad thing because not every quarterback can run that system the way he does,” said a voter who added he would place Purdy in Tier 3.
Voters acknowledge Purdy moves through his progressions with lightning speed, recognizing what the defense is doing right away, so he can deliver the ball accurately and with anticipation. They also think the Shanahan scheme plays an outsized role in Jimmy Garoppolo, Tagovailoa and Matt Schaub ranking among the NFL’s all-time top 12 in net yards per pass attempt (minimum 1,500 attempts) with Mahomes, Manning, Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Brees, Philip Rivers, Steve Young, Dan Marino and Dan Fouts.
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“All the stars align for Purdy every week,” another voter said. “There is not the talent where I say, ‘Oh, wow, he should be this, but is not because he is not doing this.’ He is doing everything he possibly can, and he’s a 3. He is different from Lamar having a good defense, a good rushing attack and good players around him. Lamar has actual (elite) talent, so he is definitely a 2, and I am making a case for him to be a potential 1 because the offense is different and he has backed it up.”
As for the rest of Tier 4 heading into the season, Kenny Pickett keeps missing games and failed to produce much under since-fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, whose scheme could be seen as a mitigating factor. Desmond Ridder hasn’t gained much traction.
“Ridder can’t see the game or process it enough,” said a voter whose team faced the Falcons. “Lacks instincts, lacks the ability to react properly to the defense in front of him and he is not that accurate. Very average.”
Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love and Sam Howell might be headed for promotions, depending on how they finish.
A voter who wasn’t impressed with Love when facing Green Bay earlier in the season reported seeing growth after studying the Packers’ last two games. This voter singled out a play against Kansas City when an increasingly confident, comfortable Love recognized the all-out blitz and threw a touchdown pass on an “us-or-nobody” ball only his receiver could catch.
ANOTHER ONE FOR @ChristianW2017!
TOUCHDOWN! 🙌 #GoPackGo
📺: NBC pic.twitter.com/3MUEvPMWoo
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 4, 2023
“I’d like to see that development, and I’m seeing it, but the offense is so simplified for him, it’s nothing to get too excited about yet,” this voter said. “I see a lot of body postures, pass drops and fadeaways that look like Aaron Rodgers, except he can’t throw accurately when he does these things.
“I don’t hold that against him because if you worked three years with Michelangelo, of course you would come out of there speaking Italian. And that is what I see: fadeaway for no reason, throw it inaccurately; don’t have your feet set, try to flick it out there, can’t throw a runner’s ball. It reinforces that there are only two guys that can do that (Rodgers and Mahomes), which we have known all along.”
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Howell has reduced his historic sack rate over the Washington Commanders’ past six games.
“Howell is similar to Baker for me,” one voter said. “Hard to bring down, tough, live arm, can sling it, but ultimately he is a little bit of an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke and is similar to Baker. Keeps plays alive, keeps his eyes downfield, takes big hits, can get up, gives his guys a chance, guys kind of rally around him, has some really good arm talent, but is not sustainable.”
(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; top photos: Kyle Ross / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
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