NASHVILLE, Tenn. — As the Minnesota Twins explore the trade market in search of rotation help, Louie Varland’s role for next season remains fluid.
Varland is penciled in as the No. 5 starter behind Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack, and there’s a widespread organizational belief that the Minnesota native and two-time Twins minor-league pitcher of the year is ready for the job heading into his age-26 season.
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At the same time, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has talked openly during this week’s Winter Meetings about pursuing trades for a veteran starter following the free-agent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. If the Twins pull off an impact trade to boost the rotation, as they did in three of the past four offseasons to add López (2023), Gray (2022) and Maeda (2020), it would bump Varland from the season-opening starting five.
And if that happens, the Twins would have a difficult call regarding Varland’s present and future role. They could keep him in the majors as a reliever, where he finished last season so impressively by maxing out his raw stuff in shorter appearances. Or they could send him back to the minors to stay stretched out to provide in-season starter depth, as part of the Triple-A rotation.
It’s similar to the situation Ober, then 27 years old, found himself in last offseason, when he spent months as the Twins’ projected No. 5 starter, only to get bumped from the rotation by the trade for López in January. Ober began the season in the Triple-A rotation, making just four starts before rejoining the Twins in late April when Maeda went on the injured list.
It wasn’t ideal for Ober, who had already proven himself as a valuable big-league starter with a 3.81 ERA in 148 1/3 innings the previous two years, but being able to turn to him as in-season depth proved essential as the Twins’ rotation carried them to the American League Central title.
No team can count on making it through a 162-game season with five starters. Even during a 2023 season in which their rotation was among MLB’s best, eight Twins pitchers made at least five starts. That’s why stockpiling depth is crucial, and why stashing Varland in the minors to begin the season could be appealing as a way to guard against inevitable in-season injuries.
Four strikeouts in two scoreless innings for Louie Varland, who is consistently working at 97-100 mph out of the pic.twitter.com/wxziEvxf9y
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 16, 2023
Shifting Varland to the bullpen, where his velocity jumped to 97-100 mph and his low-90s cutter looked like a dominant pitch, might be even more tempting if the Twins feel comfortable with five other starters come Opening Day. Varland’s late-season bullpen performance made an impression on manager Rocco Baldelli, who has repeatedly marveled at how overpowering the rookie right-hander looked in short stints.
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“When he’s throwing 100, with a 90-to-92 cutter, and you’re sending him out there (in relief) against the best hitters you’re going to face and he’s going right through them, it makes you kind of open your eyes a little bit,” Baldelli said. “That’s exciting. But he can also start. It’s hard to develop starting pitching in this game, too.”
Baldelli noted that pitching coach Pete Maki is among the biggest believers in Varland’s upside as a starter.
“Pete is optimistic that he could be a very good major-league starting pitcher,” Baldelli said. “When you have those guys in front of you, you don’t look away. You don’t put a guy in the bullpen just because he ticks up when he’s in the bullpen. If you have a major-league starter, you’re going to want to start him and give you innings and help you win.”
Varland made seven relief appearances in September, posting a 1.50 ERA and 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 innings. He also has a respectable 4.83 ERA in 15 career starts for the Twins and profiles as a potential mid-rotation starter, so they’ll need to weigh the short-term temptation and long-term value of starting versus relieving.
“I love giving Louie Varland the ball,” Baldelli said. “The decision will probably be made later in the offseason or even going into spring training. Either way, Louie is going to be stretched out (in spring training). We’re going to let him get out there. He’s going to put innings under his belt. He’ll be ready.”
Miranda, Correa and Kirilloff injury updates
Dan Hayes has the story about Byron Buxton’s first post-knee surgery checkup making the Twins feel cautiously optimistic about his chances of returning to center field in 2024, but that wasn’t the only key injury update this week.
No surgery was required to address Carlos Correa’s plantar fasciitis, which typically heals with prolonged rest and treatment. Falvey said Correa is “tracking really well” two months after the Twins’ final game and “felt like he’s really turned a corner” with the months-long heel injury that contributed to a career-worst season.
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Jose Miranda, who essentially had a lost 2023 season due to right shoulder problems that began during spring training, underwent a “cleanup” procedure shortly after the playoffs and has already resumed hitting. He’s not expected to resume throwing until January, but that’s less of an issue now that the Twins view Miranda primarily as a first baseman and designated hitter rather than as a third baseman.
“He’s going to get a ton of work at first base in spring training,” Baldelli said, noting that the Twins have several other infielders who profile as better defensive third basemen than Miranda regardless of his health status.
Stay hot, Alex Kirilloff!! 💪💪@Twins // pic.twitter.com/SnWMj8e82i
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) July 22, 2023
Alex Kirilloff has yet to resume hitting following late-October surgery to remove a bursa sac from his right shoulder, but the Twins were encouraged that he didn’t need a more substantial operation after being taken off the playoff roster due to the injury.
“We feel very fortunate that it wasn’t (labrum damage),” Falvey said. “We don’t have any reason to believe this is a long-term issue now based on what was fixed here. His wrist was in a great spot last year. Shoulder should be in a good spot going in (to spring training).”
Despite rarely being fully healthy last season, Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.455 with 11 homers in 88 games, posting a 117 OPS+ on par with Max Kepler (121) and Jorge Polanco (115). By comparison, Miranda hit just .211/.263/.303 with three homers in 40 games for a 56 OPS+ that ranked last on the team.
Pairing two former top prospects coming off shoulder injuries by platooning the left-handed-hitting Kirilloff and the right-handed-hitting Miranda at first base could work. But for Miranda to carve out that niche, and be worth a roster spot for a relatively limited role facing lefties, he’ll need to be highly productive offensively after struggling for the Twins and the Saints in 2023.
“It’s all about the bat,” Falvey said of Miranda.
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Balazovic bullpen bound
Jordan Balazovic is out of minor-league options, which means the 25-year-old right-hander can no longer be sent to the minors without first passing through waivers. He’ll report to spring training likely needing to win a spot on the Opening Day roster to remain in the Twins organization, and he’ll do so as a full-time reliever.
“He’ll come in competing as a reliever,” Falvey said. “I think our view with the best way to get Jordan to be the most effective pitcher with where he’s at with the pitch mix and otherwise is to have him in that bullpen role.”
Balazovic was once the Twins’ top pitching prospect, ranking as a consensus top-100 global prospect in 2020 and 2021, but he’s been plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness since, including suffering a broken jaw in an off-field incident last spring.
He initially found some success last season after making his big-league debut in June, but it was short-lived. Balazovic finished with a 4.44 ERA and a poor 17-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 1/3 innings for the Twins and was even less effective at Triple-A St. Paul, posting a 5.44 ERA with 80 baserunners allowed in 45 2/3 innings.
Balazovic has MLB-caliber velocity, averaging 95.1 mph with his fastball as a reliever for the Twins, but his command and secondary pitches were lacking in his first taste of the majors and his lack of a minor-league option means it’s now or never for the 2016 fifth-round pick to stick in the majors for the team that drafted him.
(Photo of Louie Varland: Jesse Johnson / USA Today)