A virtual ‘group of death’ for Spain, Italy and Croatia, a kind draw for England and a juicy meeting between France and the Netherlands were some of the highlights of the Euro 2024 draw.
Our expert panel of James Horncastle, Raphael Honigstein, Matt Slater, Dermot Corrigan and Mark Critchley assembled to offer their verdict on what lies ahead in Germany next summer — from the players who can make the tournament their own, which group they consider the toughest, and, crucially, who they are backing to win it.
What was your highlight of the draw?
James Horncastle: The violinist with the top knot and headband. It was the look of an AI-generated German. Chat DFB. He could assimilate convincingly into any context as a German. If you were to tell me he was a German tennis player who had been knocked out on a forgettable Monday afternoon early in Wimbledon, losing in straight sets to Andy Roddick, I would believe you. This is what I want from a tournament in Germany. A ‘we never left the late 80s’ aesthetic.
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Raphael Honigstein: Julian Nagelsmann’s chunky sock tie was a typically idiosyncratic choice by the German national team manager. The 36-year-old had to drive 800km from Munich to Hamburg after the airport in the Bavarian capital was closed due to heavy snowfall on Saturday. Perhaps the tie doubled up as a scarf for the journey.
Dermot Corrigan: Spain manager Luis de la Fuente’s completely blank face when Spain drew Croatia was super impressive, but the poker face slipped when Italy were also included in Group B. The La Roja coach did well to wait for the cameras to move on before the grimace set in.
Mark Critchley: I was rather enjoying the haunted, suspenseful and Angelo Badalamenti-esque piano playing over the drawing of lots but you have to say the loud, moaning sound that could only be described as a ‘sex noise’ took it to another level. It seems the floor manager at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg did not learn from their BBC counterparts and do a thorough sweep for any rogue burner phone strapped to the bottom of a chair before going live. Renowned prankster Daniel Jarvis claimed responsibility for it half an hour after the draw.
Matt Slater: So many to pick from! The garish matching belts and ties worn by the German Youth Glee Club, the live link to the Sailor’s Arms on the Reeperbahn, UEFA boss Aleksander Ceferin’s stony-faced response to the opening musical interlude. But the winner has to be the first sign of genuine legacy from Qatar 2022: using sea containers to illustrate the six groups at next year’s tournament, Germany’s tribute to the 974 Stadium and something perma-host Pedro Pinto described as a “tourist attraction”.
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Which of the likely contenders will be celebrating?
Horncastle: Belgium. Are they likely contenders? It feels there’s less hype around them than usual despite an undefeated qualifying campaign. But the emergence of a Pep-drilled Jeremy Doku succeeding the retired Eden Hazard fills me with excitement and I imagine he’ll have some fun against Slovakia, Romania and the mysterious play-off winner path B.
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Honigstein: Agreed. Belgium have a dream group stage draw with Slovakia, Romania and the winner from Israel, Ukraine, Bosnia and Iceland, and then — should they finish top — a last-16 game against a third-placed team. Give them the quarter-final place now. Not even Thibaut Courtois and Kevin De Bruyne beating each other up in the showers would derail them.
Corrigan: Portugal should be pretty happy — Turkey and Czech Republic will likely have plenty of support in Germany next summer but Roberto Martinez’s talent-packed side should have few problems progressing.
Critchley: Home advantage was already one reason to believe that a Germany side facing many questions could find safe passage to the knockout stages and, personally, I think that draw only helps their chances. Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland will all be difficult to beat but it’s hard not to see the hosts taking enough points.
Slater: England. Come on. Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia? Get in.
Who will be disappointed?
Horncastle: France are most people’s favourites, but theirs is no easy group. Austria is a trap game. I remember how close they came to eliminating Italy at the last European Championship and they now have Ralf Rangnick in charge (in his home country). OK, they turned over the Netherlands home and away in qualifying, but the Dutch are still a team that can cause anyone problems, particularly if Xavi Simons continues his development. Play-off winner path A could be Robert Lewandowski’s Poland.
Honigstein: Snap again. France have it tough. Austria, their first opponents in Group D, are formidable and so are the Netherlands. Whoever comes through from Poland, Wales, Estonia and Finland won’t be a walkover, either. Les Bleus have to do it le hard way.
Corrigan: Germany got a pretty tough group and will likely not be too happy about facing Hungary — a tough team from a neighbouring country whose travelling fans will need to be watched very closely.
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Critchley: The structure of a 24-team tournament, and a group stage that will only eliminate a third of the teams, means none of the top seeds should be particularly worried about their place in the last 16. Still, you’d rather not have Spain’s draw.
Slater: England… I’m only joking. Group D looks Death-ish. Wales, obviously, the Netherlands, Austria and surprise package France. Oof.
Key dates
- Round of 16: June 29-2 July
- Quarter-finals: July 5-6
- Semi-finals: July 9-10
- Final: July 14
Which group game are you most excited by?
Horncastle: Will there be any beer left in Germany after the opening game between the hosts and Scotland? It’d be fun if the Scots can summon up the spirit of 1999 when Don Hutchison gave them a famous win.
Slater: Croatia vs Italy on June 24 in Leipzig for a place in the last 16 will be fun. Will Italy’s huge TV market be enough to deprive Croatia of a stonewall penalty in the last 10 minutes? Again, I’m joking. Italy will obviously scrape through in third place and beat England in the final.
Which player can make this tournament their own?
Horncastle: Officially the player of the last tournament was penalty shootout hero Gigio Donnarumma. I suspect no one tipped that to happen prior to the Euros as goalkeepers never tend to feature in these sections. So maybe we should be focusing more on the likes of Mike Maignan, Jan Oblak and Thibaut Courtois than conventional wisdom dictates.
Corrigan: Jude Bellingham looks like the continent’s coming midfield star, especially with the injury problems for Spain’s Pedri and Gavi. If Bellingham brings astounding goalscoring form from his phenomenal first season at Real Madrid into the tournament, England will be trophy contenders. That depends on their naturally cautious manager Gareth Southgate allowing the 20-year-old the tactical freedom he is given by Carlo Ancelotti in Spain.
Slater: Is Bellingham too obvious? It sounds too obvious. So, no, I am not going to say the 20-year-old who almost broke Bayern Munich’s stranglehold on the Bundesliga last season and is currently scoring a goal a game for Real Madrid. No, not the one who just won the prize for the best under-21 in the world at the Ballon D’Or awards. Not him. I am going for Bernardo Silva because of his all-round, consistent, understated brilliance, and I think Portugal are sneakily very good (if it is possible for Cristiano Ronaldo’s team to do anything sneakily). But the real answer is Bellingham.
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Honigstein: Romelu Lukaku has been in superb form in recent weeks, scoring 11 goals for Belgium in the Euro qualifiers, as well as 10 for Roma in all competitions. The Belgians might well have taken over the mantle from the Dutch as the national team most prone to in-fighting but, in the absence of Thibaut Courtois and his nemesis Kevin De Bruyne (both injured), Lukaku has emerged as the new undisputed leader of the side, cutting across divides. Domenico Tedesco’s reactive tactics — Belgium often sit back to hit opponents on the break — have also suited Lukaku’s strengths. Also, in Doku, Lukaku will have one of the tournament’s most exciting wide players at his service. Prepare for the Big Rom show come June.
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Critchley: Aside from Bellingham, and maybe this is Manchester-based bias, Doku and Rasmus Hojlund both stand out as blossoming talents ready to announce themselves at a major tournament. Doku is not exactly a newcomer at international level but is beginning to nail down a regular spot with Belgium, while Hojlund has won his first caps post-Qatar. Hardly breakout stars, but both are still symbols of a coming generation.
What would represent success for England?
Critchley: Winning it. It’s as simple as that. The steady progress of Southgate’s major tournament performances — from semi-finalists in 2018 to runners-up at the last Euros — was broken at the quarter-final stage in Qatar, but that defeat was narrow enough to suggest that had England edged past France, they would likely have reached the final and would have arguably been favourites for it, too. That’s enough near misses, though. It is time for the Southgate era to deliver on its promise, not least because it may be reaching its end.
Slater: Harry Kane raising the Henri Delaunay Trophy at the Olympiastadion on July 14. And, yes, I mean it. Good teams set proper targets and should be disappointed when they miss them. England have been a good team for five years and they might be a very good one. They certainly have a couple of very good players in the two chaps I’ve already mentioned. I am not saying England are the favourites — that’s France — but you do not need to be the favourites to state that victory is your goal and anything short should be considered a failure. We have earned respect, restored pride, established a culture, become likeable. Now let’s win something. Like our wonderful women’s team.
And what about Spain?
Corrigan: Spain coach De la Fuente says his team are one of a group who could potentially win the tournament, especially after their 2023 Nations League triumph. He is also aware, however, that the current set of players is not close to the level of the golden generation of more than a decade ago now. Repeating their semi-final placing at the last Euros would be acceptable, especially as a group with Croatia and Italy in it presents a tough challenge.
And Italy?
Horncastle: The holders want to retain their trophy. No one has done it since Spain in 2012. Qualifying in and of itself came as a relief after missing out on back-to-back World Cups. This is a team in transition under a new coach. But if they click under Luciano Spalletti, Italy can go far even as fourth seeds. The quarters would be acceptable, but that means no slipping up early on in a tough group alongside Spain and Croatia..
What about Germany?
Honigstein: It would be nice getting out of the group, for starters. Three pretty disastrous tournaments in a row — two group-stage exits in the World Cup and a last-16 defeat by England at Euro 2020 — have set the bar rather low for Nagelsmann’s side. Nevertheless, the German public won’t be happy unless the team reach at least the semi-final, as they did in 2006, the last time the country hosted a big tournament.
Tell us your quarter-finalists – and champions
Horncastle: The Danes made the semis last time and England only eliminated them in extra time. Hojlund has emerged in the meantime. I will revert to cliche and insist the Turks are legitimate dark horses now Vincenzo Montella, the Pasolini lookalike, is in the saddle. Croatia will take everyone to extra time and beat them on penalties. Then it’s the usual suspects. England or France should win it.
Corrigan: Germany, Belgium, Portugal, France, Spain, England, Turkey and Switzerland to make the last eight. France to be champions — Les Bleus just have way more talented players than anyone else at the moment.
Honigstein: Group winners Germany, Spain, England, France, Belgium, Portugal plus Croatia and the Netherlands will make it to the last eight.
Critchley: Of the six top seeds, it is hard not to imagine England, France, Portugal and Spain all reaching the last eight comfortably. Belgium are a less convincing choice but have managed the shift away from their golden generation well up to this point, while home advantage should carry a rather unimpressive Germany at least some of the way. That’s a full house, then. Of the rest, the Netherlands only dropped points to France in qualifying and I fancy Denmark should improve on a disappointing showing in Qatar.
Slater: I will play safe and pick the six top seeds to make the quarters: Belgium, England, France, Germany, Portugal and Spain. Four of those are in the top eight of the FIFA rankings, too, so I really am being an utter coward. Germany are the odd one out but they are at home. That said, they are the pick I am least confident about. My other two choices are Croatia and the Netherlands, both in pot three. Their qualifying efforts were nothing to sing about but they have plenty of decent players and strong tournament pedigree. A winner? Heart says England, of course; head tuts and sighs France.
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