LAKE FOREST, Ill. — Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields heard the noise. He heard what was being said about him, his future, rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent and more when he missed four games with a dislocated right thumb.
“Everybody wants to cause a stir, cause media attention, boom, boom, boom, comments, stories,” Fields said after practicing Wednesday at Halas Hall.
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“So that’s just what comes with it. I knew that was going to happen from the get-go. So it came to me as no surprise. I was coming in the building every day being the same guy I was before I was hurt. Just trying to be the best leader I can be.”
That included writing Bagent notes about cornerbacks, safeties and linebackers.
But now he’s back. Fields is the Bears’ starter again. But will he be in 2024?
For all that’s happened this year, Fields’ future remains the most important storyline of the season for the organization.
Here are seven things I think about it all with Fields having seven games left this season.
1. I think Fields has to change some minds at Halas Hall.
I think it’s always been this way, too.
The current regime didn’t draft Fields. As much as coach Matt Eberflus praised his skill set and general manager Ryan Poles started to compliment him, it’s really as simple as that.
And that’s OK. That’s the NFL. Fields is another Bears quarterback caught up in organizational change, and he’s the only one who can change it.
Seven games is enough time to do that. Last year was an unfair season to evaluate Fields. The Bears know that. This year is different. Poles said that at the outset. The team wanted to see wins. Fair or not, QBs and coaches are judged by them. And Fields and Eberflus both need more.
The Bears are 2-9 in one-score games in the Eberflus era. One of those wins — a 16-13 victory last week against the Carolina Panthers — belongs to rookie Tyson Bagent.
If Fields wins, he stays. If he doesn’t, it’s easier for the Bears to say goodbye.
“Just go out there and win games,” Fields said. “I’m not here to prove anything to anybody. I’m playing for my teammates, I’m playing for the coaches, and that’s it. Everything else will take care of itself. So I’m not necessarily trying to prove anything to anybody. Just go out there with my brothers. And go out there and perform.”
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2. I think Fields is walking into his best situation yet with the Bears — and that he’ll be held to it by the team in its evaluation.
Fields will start against the Detroit Lions behind an offensive line consisting of left tackle Braxton Jones, left guard Teven Jenkins, center Lucas Patrick, right guard Nate Davis and right Darnell Wright. It’s a good group and one that could get even better as individuals improve, particularly Jenkins, Jones and Wright.
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The Bears have the second-best run game in the league not because of Fields’ elusiveness and scrambling but because of what their line does. The Bears ran the ball just fine with Bagent under center.
Fields also should have more time to throw. He can hold the ball and be the big-game hunter that he wants to be. According to ESPN’s advanced win rate metrics, the Bears rank sixth in pass-block win rate and fourth in run-block win rate.
3. I think there are plenty of statistical ways to evaluate Fields through Eberflus’ search for consistency.
“I think seven weeks is enough time to show consistency and being the high performer that we expect him to be,” Eberflus said. “I know he’s had some good performances this year, certainly the last few have been solid. We expect consistency out of all our positions.”
Here are several areas worth watching:
• Sack rate: 12.9 percent. According to Pro Football Reference, Fields has the second-worst mark in the league among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, which includes Bagent. He trails only New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. For context, Bagent is the best at 3.4 percent. Patrick Mahomes is at 3.5.
• Interception rate: 3.7 percent. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the league. Bagent is second worst at 4.2.
• Completion percentage: 61.7 percent. Fields ranks 27th. Bagent is 17th at 65.7.
But let’s have some more fun with numbers. If you look at Fields’ last 17 starts, dating to last season, here’s what he’s done: 258-for-413 (62.5 percent), 2,972 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions, a 92.0 passer rating, 63 sacks, 173 carries, 1,233 yards, eight TD runs.
Not bad, right?
Can we appreciate the elite ball placement from Justin Fields on this play? 🎯 (via @subway) pic.twitter.com/Xsc220CkEd
— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2023
Here’s the issue. Only 237 of those rushing yards are from this season. He’s not running at the same pace he was last season. That’s on the coaches, but it’s also on him. The Bears have never told Fields to stop scrambling. And now he’s returning from a dislocated right thumb.
For more context, his 92.0 passer rating would rank 14th this season just ahead of, well, himself. His current 91.6 rating this season ranks right in the middle of the league. Fields, though, is 26th in QBR, a more advanced measurement from ESPN.
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That 92.0 rating over Fields’ last 17 starts would rank 15th last season. It’s also below the career bests of Mitch Trubisky (95.4 in 2018) and Jay Cutler (92.3 in 2015).
As a passer in his career, Fields hasn’t been good enough on third downs (57.4 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 37 sacks, 70.7 passer rating) or when trailing (58.8 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 67 sacks, 80.2 passer rating).
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4. I think there is a better chance that the Bears will be “absolutely blown away” by a quarterback in the 2024 draft class than they were last year.
Or put it this way: The Bears might have missed on C.J. Stroud, but they won’t allow themselves to miss on Caleb Williams or Drake Maye or even J.J. McCarthy.
If the Bears believe that one of those prospects — starting with Williams and Maye — has a higher ceiling than Fields in the NFL, then they must take him.
No one should be surprised if it happens, either.
But it’s still too early in the scouting process to say whether the Bears feel that way about Williams or Maye. The college season isn’t over, and neither quarterback has declared for the draft.
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5. I think drafting wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., tight end Brock Bowers or one of the best offensive linemen will help Fields — and the Bears’ next quarterback if they eventually replace him.
When Mahomes replaced Alex Smith as the Kansas City Chiefs’ starter in 2018, he took over a playoff-ready offense filled with standouts. Smith, tight end Travis Kelce, receiver Tyreek Hill and running back Kareem Hunt all went to the Pro Bowl in the previous season. Smith had a career-best season in 2017, setting new highs in passing yards, touchdowns and passer rating.
In 2018, left tackle Eric Fisher went to the Pro Bowl, while right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was a first-team All-Pro after consecutive second-team honors.
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The Chiefs built a good offense before Mahomes became their starter. When Mahomes was ready to play, they were ready for him.
Poles played a part in all of that as a member of the Chiefs’ scouting staff. It was likely an important lesson for him.
Adding Harrison, Bowers or one of the best linemen to an offense that already features receiver DJ Moore, tight end Cole Kmet, right tackle Darnell Wright and guard Teven Jenkins would help any quarterback.
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6. I think if Fields returns for the 2024 season, then Luke Getsy should, too.
(And now I’ll duck for tomatoes and shoes.)
But hear me out. There is value in continuity. If Fields stays and Getsy goes, Fields will be starting over with his third offensive coordinator in four seasons.
Do you really want Fields learning another new offense? Do the Bears really want that?
Getsy shouldn’t be absolved of criticism. He warrants a serious look. But if Getsy is fired and Fields remains, it then becomes a question of who is interested in replacing him if Eberflus is retained.
7. I think Bagent’s run as a starter might matter more than you think in the Bears’ evaluation of Fields.
The Bears don’t talk about Bagent as if he’s only a backup. They went 2-2 with an undrafted rookie from Shepherd University as their starting quarterback. That means something when wins are everything.
“We never put a ceiling on players, but we certainly like where his floor is because the sky’s the limit for everybody,” Eberflus said. “You never want to do that. Guys can grow into certain spaces that they didn’t even think they could. So you have to give them that opportunity, but we certainly like where he is right now.”
That was said Wednesday, the same day that Fields practiced in full since injuring his thumb. It’s apparent that the Bears like Bagent, though Fields remains the better player and the better starting option.
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The Bears appreciate how Bagent handled everything about his jump from Division II football. Eberflus commended Bagent for how he handled the environment against the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, particularly in the first three quarters, but also for how he played well enough to win against the Panthers in a very different game.
“(It’s) how he protected the football,” Eberflus said. “That’s the No. 1 job of a quarterback is to protect the football. (He) got rid of the ball, didn’t take any sacks. I think that’s a big growth there.”
(Top photo: Armando L. Sanchez / Chicago Tribune / Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
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