PHOENIX — Rebuilding might be the new market inefficiency. Only the Oakland A’s and Washington Nationals were in that mode last season. The Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals might have looked like it, but didn’t necessarily see themselves that way.
A relatively thin free-agent class presents opportunity for a team willing to sacrifice its present for the future. And the Milwaukee Brewers, after losing manager Craig Counsell, seemingly are willing to deploy such a strategy.
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Executives at this time of year are always careful to tell reporters they are fielding calls on their players rather than shopping them. In that sense, the Brewers would say they are acting no differently than any club. But industry sources tell a different story.
Those sources, briefed on the Brewers’ discussions but not authorized to discuss them publicly, say the team is open to moving virtually any player on its roster. The process effectively has begun, with the Brewers sending outfielder Mark Canha to the Detroit Tigers for a pitching prospect. A continued teardown, considering the Brewers’ current position, would not be without logic. It might even be the proper course.
The Brewers possess a promising core of young position players, with more on their way. Their formidable pitching staff, however, is in a precarious state. Right-handers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are under club control for only one more season, closer Devin Williams for two more. And the Brewers might not even offer Woodruff a contract, knowing he might be out for most or all of next season after undergoing shoulder surgery.
A two-year deal for Woodruff might be a solution for Milwaukee, if the pitcher were willing to entertain such an offer. But Woodruff, who stands to earn approximately $12 million in arbitration, might prefer to force the issue. He would become a free agent if the Brewers non-tendered him, able to negotiate the same type of two-year deal with any club. A trade, if the Brewers could pull one off, at least would enable the team to recoup some value.
As for Burnes, the Brewers could keep him, make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season and receive a 2025 draft pick after he signs elsewhere. But they likely would fare better in a trade, and by avoiding his final year of arbitration would save a projected $15.1 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
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Shortstop Willy Adames is another potential free agent and another obvious trade candidate. And if the Brewers embark upon a sell-off, they would figure to listen even on left fielder Christian Yelich, who has transformed himself into a quality leadoff hitter. Yelich, though, is under contract for five more years and $130 million and possesses full no-trade protection.
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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold declined comment on the team’s plans. But at least one other club, the Chicago White Sox, is willing to consider anything and everything. First-year GM Chris Getz, speaking to reporters Tuesday, said he was “open for business,” willing to entertain trade offers for right-hander Dylan Cease, left fielder Eloy Jiménez and others.
Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has said in the past he opposes a complete rebuild. But at this point, does the team have much choice? Burnes and Woodruff are goners. Williams almost certainly will be after 2025, and the Brewers traded their previous closer, Josh Hader, when he was under club control for one-plus seasons. If they followed the same time frame with Williams, they would trade him at this year’s deadline.
The breakup of this team is inevitable. It’s just a matter of how proactive the Brewers want to be in moving the process along.
Witt Jr. extension possible?
After free-agent shortstops Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson agreed to contracts for a combined $957 million last offseason, the Royals’ chances of signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a monster extension seemed rather slim.
They still might be. But the club is at least entertaining the idea of approaching Witt, according to a source briefed on the team’s plans but not authorized to discuss them publicly.
At a time when the Royals intend to seek public financing for a new ballpark as part of a $2 billion project, a long-term deal with one of the game’s emerging young stars might help sway public sentiment. And for an example of what such a franchise pillar can mean to a community, the Royals need look no further than Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, another Texas native and son of a major leaguer.
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The Chiefs signed Mahomes to a record four-year, $210.6 million extension in September. The NFL’s economic structure makes it easier for small-market teams to strike such deals, compared to their counterparts in baseball. But recent contracts for the Atlanta Braves’ Austin Riley (10 years, $212 million), Seattle Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez (12 years, $209.3 million), and Arizona Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll (eight years, $111 million) provide potential starting points for a Witt extension.
Witt, coming off a season in which he hit 30 homers, drove in 96 runs and stole 49 bases, has two years of service. Riley had two-plus when he agreed to his deal. Rodríguez received the largest guarantee for a player with less than one year of service, Carroll was the largest for a player with fewer than 100 days.
None of the comparisons is apples to apples. But the Royals know a Witt deal almost certainly would cost them more than $200 million, and they are not dismissing the possibility. That alone constitutes progress.
Leave the short guys alone!
Agent Scott Boras recently evoked a longstanding scouting bias against short right-handers when asked to compare his client, left-hander Blake Snell, to another prominent free-agent starting pitcher, righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Boras, speaking on “The Show” podcast with the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, mentioned Yamamoto’s smallish stature. The pitcher is listed at 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds.
“When you’re talking about size, we go back and look at the record of 5-11 or below pitchers in the major leagues,” Boras said. “When we look at that size quotient, and we look at the number of pitchers that have durability and have dominance, all of a sudden you realize that that is a different category.”
Snell, listed at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, has a more classic pitcher’s build. Boras, though, would be talking much differently if he represented Yamamoto, a client of the Wasserman Media Group. It’s not as if smaller righties never succeed. Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez was 5-11. Current free agents Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman are 5-10 and 5-7, respectively. Roy Oswalt was 6-feet. So is Spencer Strider.
Boras, who did not reference Yamamoto again during his media availability Wednesday, is not entirely alone in his sentiments. One general manager, speaking on condition of anonymity because executives are not allowed to talk about specific free agents, also referenced Yamamoto’s size as a possible detriment. Not that Yamamoto should be worried. He is in high demand because he is only 25 and has won three straight Sawamura Awards, Japan’s version of the Cy Young.
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Speaking generally, two heads of baseball operations, the San Francisco Giants’ Farhan Zaidi and St. Louis Cardinals’ John Mozeliak, expressed minimal concern about smaller right-handers.
“A lot of times when you see sort of sub-6-foot righties, they sort of make up for the lack of height in other ways,” said Zaidi, whose original team, the A’s, once had a staff led by Tim Hudson, who is 6-1.
“Oftentimes, it’s athleticism. Tim Hudson was an unbelievable athlete. A couple of free agents out there — Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray — are also great athletes that don’t have prototypical starting-pitcher height. It creates some interesting pitch-design questions. You’re not coming from the same plane. But you can use that to your advantage as well. I don’t really see it as an issue if guys have a track record of performance.”
Mozeliak added, “I’ve never inherently felt that bias. I am going to quote (retired executive) Bob Gebhard, who once told me in the amateur world, ‘If you’re going to miss, miss big.’ (But) those three (Yamamoto, Stroman and Gray) are all accomplished pitchers. Regardless of whether they’re 5-7 or 6-7, they’ve done what they’ve done.
“That bias tends to be more, ‘Are they good draft investments, good choices?’ Usually when you look at major-league pitchers, size does matter in the sense of durability. But let’s all be honest. Baseball pitching right now is a fragile environment, regardless of what you look like.”
Nola’s unique appeal
Snell is the likely NL Cy Young winner, by virtue of his 1.20 ERA in his last 23 starts. But here’s an interesting note: Snell’s highest single-season innings total, 180 2/3, matches right-hander Aaron Nola’s lowest in his last five full seasons.
Nola, who like Snell is 30, would be an attractive free agent in any offseason. But the way the game is trending, he might hold even greater appeal than he would have say, 10 years ago.
Over the past six seasons, Nola is second in innings pitched only to Gerrit Cole. He is that rare starting pitcher who can save his team’s bullpen. The last time he was on the injured list was in 2017. The last time he was on the IL for an arm problem was in ‘16.
Nola, then, is something of an anomaly. He threw 193 2/3 innings last season. Only five pitchers worked 200 or more. During the World Series, commissioner Rob Manfred said he would be willing to reduce the maximum size of a pitching staff from 13 pitchers to 12 as a way to help restore starters to prominence. Such a change, if it happens, only would increase the need for durable types like Nola.
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Another positive for Nola is that he should age well. He knows how to pitch. He doesn’t rely on overpowering stuff. His four-seam fastball has averaged just under 93 mph since 2020, and his curveball was the pitch he used most frequently last season, ahead of his four-seamer, sinker, changeup and cutter.
Perhaps the biggest concern with Nola is that he had regular-season ERAs of 4.63 in 2021 and 4.46 in ‘23, sandwiched around a 3.25 in ‘22. His performance in this year’s postseason, however, was mostly stellar. Nola allowed only two earned runs over 18 2/3 innings in his first three starts before faltering against the Diamondbacks in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series.
The Phillies remain engaged on Nola, and a number of other clubs consider him a primary target. Nola doesn’t figure to get as much as Snell or Yamamoto. But he should fare quite well.
Reds in position to deal
Reds GM Nick Krall said rival clubs are asking about “a handful” of the team’s position players — an unsurprising development considering the team’s depth, especially in the infield.
Seven infielders on the Reds’ current roster — Jonathan India, Nick Senzel and rookies Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte — had at least 120 plate appearances last season. Four outfielders — TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild — had at least 250.
The glut of position players is one reason the Reds declined Joey Votto’s $20 million option, with Krall saying, “there’s no playing time.” Senzel, projected to earn $3 million in arbitration, is a possible non-tender. India, projected to earn $3.7 million, remains a candidate for a trade.
First base, however, will be open with Votto no longer part of the equation. Players can rotate in and out of the DH spot. Injuries will occur. Krall, like most GMs, is loathe to admit he needs to make a deal, lest it compromise his leverage. But rival clubs see opportunity in the Reds’ surplus.
“People are calling because you have a lot of guys,” Krall said. “We don’t need to trade somebody at this point. I’d rather keep as many guys as possible. We got caught in years where we didn’t have anybody to play. But we’ve had conversations about multiple players on our roster.”
(Top photo of Corbin Burnes: John Fisher / Getty Images)