Instructions for whichever team wins the Pac-12 tournament this season: Please turn off the lights on your way out. And you get custody of Bill Walton.
The lid is about to shut on 108 years of history for the “Conference of Champions.” Four teams — UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington — will head to the Big Ten next season, while four more — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — join the Big 12. Meanwhile, the Bay Area schools — Stanford and Cal — somehow will be in a league named after the opposite ocean. Rivalries like UCLA-Arizona and Oregon-Oregon State may or may not continue.
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“I’m incredibly sad about the breakup of the Pac-12,” first-year Cal coach and former Stanford star Mark Madsen said at the league’s media day this month. “In the back of my mind, there’s always the hope, 20 years from now, 15 years from now, things don’t work out with some of these other conferences and it gets put back together in some way.”
Even the Big Ten can snicker about the Pac-12’s lack of recent postseason achievements — Arizona’s 1997 national title remains the league’s last one, and the conference has claimed just seven Final Four berths since 1998. Still, there are plenty of reasons to watch this final go-round, other than seeing Walton potentially cry in his tie-dye.
Two dominant storylines
Can Arizona figure out March?
Tommy Lloyd’s first two seasons in Tucson have been a smashing success by any reasonable measurement. Lloyd has gone 61-11, winning a Pac-12 regular-season title and back-to-back conference tourney crowns and earning a No. 1 and a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Notice we said “reasonable measurement,” not small-sample-size March Madness outcomes. The Wildcats were upset by No. 15 seed Princeton last season and fell in the Sweet 16 as one of the favorites to win the 2022 national title. Lloyd has talked about injecting more toughness into his program, and he brought aboard lightning rod North Carolina transfer guard Caleb Love for more offensive variance. Arizona is the preseason Pac-12 favorite, but most people will judge it — reasonably or not — by what happens in the postseason.
When will Bronny James play?
Normally, not much attention would be paid to a four-star recruit who signed with USC, but this one happens to have the given name of LeBron James Jr. and long has been linked to his father’s NBA future. Bronny suffered a cardiac arrest in July, the result of a congenital heart defect, and his playing status is unclear. (Trojans teammate Vincent Iwuchukwu went through a similar incident at almost the same point in the summer of 2022 and made his debut on Jan. 12, although no two health situations are ever the same). If and when the younger James does suit up for Andy Enfield’s team, the resulting media coverage will be unlike anything in USC’s relatively quiet basketball history.
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Three players to watch
Oumar Ballo, Arizona: Love is the intriguing new addition, but Ballo remains the Wildcats’ ballast. The 7-foot senior averaged 14.2 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks last season while shooting 64.7 percent from the field. He should have more room to operate in the post with All-American Azuolas Tubelis departed. Don’t be surprised if Ballo is the Pac-12 player of the year.
Aday Mara, UCLA: A 7-3 Spaniard with deft footwork and passing skills, who maybe isn’t strong enough to defend in the lane? And who is playing for the demanding Mick Cronin? No matter how this goes, it’s going to be fascinating to watch.
Tristan da Silva, Colorado: Not enough people outside of Boulder know about da Silva, who averaged 15.9 points and nearly five rebounds last season while shooting 39.4 percent from 3. The 6-9 senior from Germany has improved steadily each season and can do a little bit of everything on the court.
Top newcomer
Isaiah Collier, USC: He was the No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2023 for a reason. Collier is an elite-level passer with outstanding size for a point guard (he’s 6-5). He could have a Jalen Suggs or Lonzo Ball type of one-year impact, but he doesn’t have to carry all the load in the backcourt as leading scorer Boogie Ellis returns. USC is going to be a must-watch team this season even while Bronny James recuperates.
Coaches who need to win
Mike Hopkins, Washington
Jerod Haase, Stanford
We usually limit this category to one hot-seat occupant, but the Pac-12 has multiple coaches facing critical junctures. After a fast start in Seattle that included the 2019 league title, Hopkins has gone 53-69 with no postseasons. He has only two years remaining on his contract, and the AD who hired him, Jen Cohen, left for USC this summer.
Many were stunned when Stanford chose to keep Haase; the Cardinal haven’t made the NCAA Tournament in his seven seasons despite landing several blue-chip recruits. That decision will look terrible in hindsight if Haase struggles again and popular Stanford alum Madsen gets things going at rival Cal.
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Predicted league finish
1. Arizona: “The first thing I thought after that Princeton game is I need to increase our margin for error, and to me, toughness is a way that you do that,” Lloyd said at Pac-12 media day. “If you want to be competitive in these games, sometimes you’ve got to be able to physically dominate your opponent.” San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson, a defensive standout, should add some grit and grind.
2. USC: Questions lurk beyond that ultra-talented backcourt, including Iwuchukwu’s health and the frontcourt in general. Washington State transfer DJ Rodman — another son of an NBA legend — could be key, as well as young bigs Kijani Wright and Arrinten Page. The skill level throughout the roster is hard to ignore.
3. Colorado: We’re bullish on the Buffs — and it has nothing to do with Deion Sanders. Tad Boyle returns a pair of potential first-team all-league performers in da Silva and junior point guard KJ Simpson and welcomes five-star recruit Cody Williams, the younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams. Bruising TCU transfer Eddie Lampkin Jr. is as immovable as the Flatirons.
4. UCLA: This is likely a foolish underselling of a Cronin-coached team, but the Bruins have seven new players, including six freshmen. Sophomore big man Adem Bona is the main holdover and a Bona fide (sorry) rim protector. UCLA could take some lumps early against a brutal schedule, but watch out if things jell. “We have some guys with some real talent,” Cronin said. “Just gotta get them experience. You just gotta make sure you’re constantly teaching.”
5. Oregon: The trend line hasn’t been great of late for Oregon and Dana Altman, who have missed the NCAA Tournament the past two years. Injuries have played a major role, so it’s not encouraging that star freshman guard Mookie Cook is already out a few months after ankle surgery. Still, there’s plenty of talent on hand, from veterans N’Faly Dante, Kario Oquendo and Jermaine Couisnard to the 11th-ranked recruiting class. The Ducks just need a little luck.
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6. Stanford: Haase hasn’t done much to inspire confidence, but at least he has a promising, experienced roster even after losing Harrison Ingram to North Carolina. Leading scorer Spencer Jones is back along with four other seniors who were rotation players last season. Top 25 recruit Andrej Stojakovic — Peja’s son; hey, we sense a theme in this league — adds some cachet. Perhaps Providence transfer Jared Bynum can infuse some much-needed toughness.
7. Washington: Hopkins could start five seniors, including former Kentucky transfers Keion Brooks Jr. and Sahvir Wheeler and Rutgers import Paul Mulcahy. The former longtime Jim Boeheim assistant plans to go away from the 2-3 zone defense, allowing Wheeler to pressure the ball and 7-footer Braxton Meah, a Pac-12 all-defense honoree last season, to clean up at the rim. Will that be enough to turn things around, or will the Huskies be looking for a new coach to lead them into the Big Ten?
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8. Arizona State: The Sun Devils lost four starters and nine players total and ended up with a curious collection from the transfer portal. Bobby Hurley will have his hands full making sense of this roster, which also includes West Virginia transfer Jose Perez, who just committed on Oct. 15. Hurley has taken his team to three of the past five NCAA Tournaments, so he deserves some benefit of the doubt. But it’s easy to see how things could go sideways, especially if two-time transfer Adam Miller isn’t eligible.
9. Utah: Any list of the most underrated players in the country should include Utes 7-footer Branden Carlson, who put up a 111 offensive rating that would have ranked top 25 nationally had his usage rate been slightly higher. Craig Smith has a ton of size at his disposal — 7-1 Colorado transfer Lawson Lovering could also start — but the guard play could be shaky if two-time transfer Deivon Smith doesn’t get a waiver. Still, like its football counterpart, Utah basketball often exceeds expectations.
10. Cal: Perhaps this is aggressively optimistic for a team that won (lowers reading glasses) three games last season. But Madsen brought in four transfers who should all contribute, led by Texas Tech ex-pats Fardaws Aimaq and Jaylon Tyson. Madsen did solid work at Utah Valley, winning 48 games there the past two seasons, and seems ready for a bigger challenge. And make no mistake, Cal is a big challenge.
11. Oregon State: Wayne Tinkle decided to build through his freshman class last season, and an 11-win season followed. He hopes the growing pains begin to pay dividends as virtually every player returns, led by point guard Jordan Pope. No team will have more continuity, but more patience may be required.
12. Washington State: Kyle Smith is the best coach at Wazzu since Tony Bennett, and taking the Cougars to back-to-back NITs was no small feat. But losing four starters, including Rodman and TJ Bamba to the portal, put the program in scramble mode this offseason. On paper, this is the least impressive roster in the league, although Smith will squeeze everything possible out of it.
(Top photo of Oumar Ballo: Christopher Hook / Getty Images)