This is a digital version of The Windup newsletter. Sign up here to receive this content directly in your inbox every morning.
The Phillies are looking like an unstoppable force, and the ALCS moves to Arlington as Max Scherzer returns to the mound. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!
Phillies keep rolling
“Keep cruisin’, can’t stop, won’t stop”
Doesn’t it seem like a month ago that the Diamondbacks were jumping out to early leads in every game of the NLDS against the Dodgers?
The tables have certainly turned since they advanced to the next round. The Phillies have scored early and often en route to winning the first two games of the NLCS.
Last night, it was solo home runs from Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber that kicked things off in the first three innings, but those things got truly out of hand in the sixth and seventh innings, when consecutive four-run innings got us to the 10-0 final score. Philadelphia simply cannot stop hitting home runs — in the sixth inning, Schwarber hit his second of the night.
Advertisement
It’s not that the D-backs starters have been bad. As Andy McCullough points out, Arizona starter Merrill Kelly only allowed three hits in 5 2/3 innings. The problem? All three were home runs.
It’s only the first two games of a seven-game series, and the teams haven’t played a single game in Phoenix yet. But so far, this has looked pretty one-sided. And now the D-backs have burned through their top two pitchers.
So is there a path to victory for Arizona? Maybe. They’ll play the next three games at home, and it certainly can’t hurt to get out of the electric atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Step one: Win three home games in a row against a team that has inspired not one, but two Weird & Wild columns from Jayson Stark this week.
Step two: Win one game in Philly.
After the last two nights, it’s hard to say which will be a bigger challenge.
Ken’s Notebook: A Mad Max mystery
The Texas Rangers’ Max Scherzer last pitched 36 days ago, and tonight he will start Game 3 against the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series. If you’re thinking, “That’s an awfully long layoff for a pitcher starting a postseason game,” you would be right.
The Athletic has live coverage of Rangers vs. Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS.
Only three pitchers had a longer gap between appearances before starting a postseason game, according to STATS Perform — the Atlanta Braves’ Tucker Davidson in 2021 (138 days), the Colorado Rockies’ Aaron Cook in 2007 (79 days) and the Philadelphia Athletics’ Chief Bender in 1910 (40 days).
Davidson was an unusual case, starting Game 5 of the 2021 World Series only because Charlie Morton suffered a fractured right fibula in Game 1. At the time, he had only five games of major-league experience and had been on the injured list since mid-June with left forearm inflammation. He pitched two innings, allowing four runs, two earned, and the Braves fell to the Astros, 9-5.
Advertisement
Cook is not much of a comparison for Scherzer, either. Scherzer is dealing with an arm injury — a strained right teres major (shoulder) muscle. Cook had a strained right oblique and returned to throw 70 pitches over six innings in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series. He allowed three runs, and the Boston Red Sox prevailed, 4-3, to sweep the series.
What can we expect from Scherzer against the Astros? He threw 68 pitches in his most recent simulated game, but is not sure how that will translate in a postseason game when the strain on every pitch is greater.
His situation is unlike any he faced previously. Prior to Game 7 of the 2019 World Series, his arm was in shape, but he was dealing with spasms in his neck and upper right trapezius. Last season, Scherzer went 44 days between starts because of an oblique issue, but built up by pitching three times on a rehabilitation assignment. And again, the problem wasn’t with his arm.
Scherzer said he felt good throwing the ball in his last simulated game. He reached 92-93 mph with his fastball and mixed in his breaking and off-speed pitches. But he is fully aware he is not built up to his normal workload. He has no idea how many pitches he can throw Wednesday night, or how effective he can be.
“You just don’t know,” Scherzer said.
GO DEEPER
Rosenthal: Martín Maldonado had the custom cleats, but it's Cristian Javier who made a statement for Astros
ALCS moves to Arlington
“I’m feeling better when I’m far away”
You’d think that winning the first two games on the road in Houston would have Rangers fans feeling emboldened with the series moving back to Arlington. But let’s take a look at a few factors from the home/road splits this year:
- Astros at home: 39-42
- Astros on the road: 51-30
- Rangers at home: 50-31
- Rangers on the road: 40-41
Both teams can take a little comfort in knowing the series is moving north, it would seem. But if you look a little closer, there’s reason for Astros fans to take heart: Houston is 6-1 against Texas in Arlington this year, and the final three wins were by a combined score of 39-10 in early September.
Advertisement
As we’ve already discussed, though, it’s hard to know how much to compare the regular-season Rangers (good offense, shaky bullpen, very streaky) to the postseason Rangers (indestructible force of baseball magic, possibly in league with extraterrestrials or celestial beings).
Game 3 will feature Cristian Javier vs. Scherzer — here’s a preview.
More Rangers: Behind their thriving pitching staff is “very unique” coach Mike Maddux.
More Astros: Struggling Kyle Tucker could move down in the lineup for Game 3.
Would Padres trade Soto?
“I know that you just got here, and I know that you don’t want to go”
It’s probably too early for this, but it’s an interesting question. Would the Padres — just a little over 14 months after trading six players to the Nationals for Juan Soto — turn around and trade him this offseason?
The fact that the question is being asked at all indicates what a huge bummer the 2023 season was for the Padres. After advancing to the NLCS last year, they stumbled to a third-place finish in the NL West, missing the playoffs by two games.
There’s a case to be made for the Padres running it back next season. After all, they finished strong, winning 14 of their last 16 games, and the core of their offense — Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim — is all under contract for next season, at least.
The pitching is less steady. Blake Snell and Josh Hader will be hitting free agency, and Seth Lugo has a player option for next season. Michael Wacha has club options for each of the next two seasons at $16 million. Yu Darvish is signed through 2028, but he’s 37 years old. That leaves Joe Musgrove, who is signed through 2027.
We’re almost at the time of year when the Padres can try to address some of those pitching needs, but as Jim Bowden asked: would they trade Soto? And if so, which teams would make the best trade partners?
Advertisement
Dealing him wouldn’t necessarily signal the onset of a full rebuild — it might just be that the team thinks a Scott Boras client will hit free agency rather than sign an extension, and they want to trade him while he has some value left instead of letting him walk. Maybe they would trade him for pitching to help balance their roster a bit.
But that wouldn’t go very far in convincing Padres fans that things are going to rebound next year, would it?
Handshakes and High Fives
Kim Ng was already a trailblazer. With her departure from the Marlins, says Britt Ghiroli, Ng is more than that. She’s someone who knows her worth.
Fabian Ardaya makes the case that the Dodgers aren’t going to solve their problems with a few changes to the coaching staff (with extensive quotes from team president Andrew Friedman).
For Clay Holmes and the Yankees, it must feel nice to prove a Hall of Famer right with your performance.
While the Rangers, Astros, Phillies and Diamondbacks are showcasing their successful rosters, Sahadev Sharma takes a look at what the Cubs might need to do to join them next season.
Tim Britton takes a soup-to-nuts look at the Mets’ pitching situation.
Sign up for our other newsletters:
The Bounce 🏀 | The Pulse | Full Time ⚽ | Prime Tire 🏁 | Until Saturday 🏈
(Top photo of Max Scherzer: Thomas Shea / USA Today)