Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12.
The good news is that two of the biggest favorites to lose in the NFL last week (Philadelphia and San Francisco) were not extremely popular picks in survivor pools. The Eagles were picked by only 7.4 percent of participants, while the 49ers were the choice for only 2.7 percent. Maybe you have already used them. Maybe you were saving them for different matchups. Whatever the case may be, their upset losses weren’t too damaging. Buffalo was the most popular pick (over 28 percent of participants) against a Tyrod Taylor-led New York Giants team. The Bills kept everybody in their seats until the final play.
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If by some chance you have avoided using Buffalo to this point, this might be a good week to roll with them because it seems unlikely they play that bad two weeks in a row, and they are one of the few big favorites on the schedule this week against a New England team that looks awful.
Seattle and San Francisco are both favored by more than a touchdown. However, be careful with San Francisco if Christian McCaffrey and/or Deebo Samuel cannot go.
These were the highest percentage of rostered teams through Week 6: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, and Buffalo. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but as noted above, only Buffalo stands out as a good possibility for Week 7.
Survivor Week 7 Strategy
Renee Miller: By this point in the season, most people have used Buffalo, Miami and San Francisco. These are the three highest-scoring offenses in the league, and Buffalo and San Fran are among the three best defenses (joined by KC). Detroit, the fourth-highest scoring team, meets Baltimore, the team allowing the fourth-fewest points per game. That’s a must-avoid situation for me. Philly hosts the Dolphins, and the Chargers visit the Chiefs, adding three more no-go teams. Nine of the 13 games this week have a point spread of three or less. In other words, we’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. There will still be 13 winning teams this week, but picking them out is getting harder and harder. This week, I plan to focus on teams with a demonstrated balance of good offense and defense. Defense is often underrated in fantasy/betting, but as Cleveland demonstrated last weekend, it wins.
Adam Gretz: This is one of the tougher weeks we have seen for the survivor pool. There are not many big favorites, and of the big favorites that do exist you might be facing a situation where you have either already picked them or there might be some concerns that make you hesitate to go with them. Which Buffalo team is going to show up in New England? The one that rocked Miami? Or the one that lost to Zach Wilson and barely hung on to beat the Giants? Will San Francisco be fully healthy? And how much of Brock Purdy’s struggles last week were having to go against an elite defense in Cleveland, and how much of them were him losing his two best playmakers? I feel like that leaves Seattle as the clear pick for me.
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Survivor Week 7 Chalk Picks
Adam Gretz: Seattle over Arizona
It seems like I am simply picking against Arizona every week, and while that has been a mostly successful strategy, I am not specifically targeting them this time. I feel like it is the perfect combination of it being the right matchup for Seattle, as well as there not being a lot of other options that I am overly confident in. The Seahawks lost a very winnable game on Sunday in Cincinnati and despite their problems and the turnovers from quarterback Geno Smith. If Seattle can duplicate most of that performance this week, it will probably result in a win. The Seahawks moved the ball against Cincinnati – they just ran into problems finishing drives. For as tough as they play, the Cardinals will probably not be as tough defensively as the Bengals were. I also don’t see Josh Dobbs going into Seattle and getting a win.
Renee Miller: LA Rams over Pittsburgh
The Rams are a fun team again, something I did not expect when the season started. Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford have been electric at times, and the return of Cooper Kupp has been better than some expected, given his age and injury. They will likely be without Williams this week but have another potential rookie star running back in Zach Evans. That might not matter much, though, because the key to beating the Steelers is through the air. About 73 percent of opponents’ touchdowns have been through the air, and the Steelers rank third in opponent yards per completion (11.4 yards).
With the rookie Evans and Royce Freeman in the backfield, I expect Stafford to be busy targeting Kupp and Nacua, which is bound to yield points on the board. On the other side, Pittsburgh ranks as the third-lowest scoring team in the league. They might get Diontae Johnson back this week, but Najee Harris has been terrible and the truth is that Kenny Pickett has not made the leap many people, including me, expected him to in Year 2. After completing 31 or 46 passes in an ugly loss to San Francisco in Week 1, Pickett hasn’t completed more than 18 passes in a game. In five games he has five touchdowns and four interceptions and is barely averaging 200 yards per game. That’s not getting the job done this week. The Rams are just three-point home favorites, but seeing that line move as the week goes on wouldn’t surprise me.
Survivor Week 7 Contrarian Picks
Adam Gretz: Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Nothing about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers makes me overly confident in picking them most weeks. The defense is okay. And while the Baker Mayfield comeback story is interesting, the offense has been pretty underwhelming. They do not run the ball particularly well, they do not score a lot, and it just seems like a pretty run-of-the-mill, ordinary, mid-level team in a weak division. But! If you are low on options for the week in your pool and need to find an off-the-radar pick, this might be a good option. While the Buccaneers defense will give up some yards, they do force turnovers and Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder has been trending in the wrong direction this season and has thrown five interceptions over the past three games. I do not trust him in a road divisional game.
Renee Miller: Green Bay over Denver
Road teams have won just one fewer game than home teams so far this year (46-47). Denver has lost all three home games this season to the New York Jets, Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders. None of those teams even has a winning record. The Packers are coming off the bye week and having Aaron Jones return to practice Monday is a great sign for his availability this weekend. Denver has been raked over the coals by every team they’ve played; even when they win, they are hemorrhaging points (33.3 points per game allowed).
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Green Bay’s defense is pretty much league-average across the board, but compared to Denver, that makes them elite. Jordan Love is coming off his worst game of the season, a zero TD, three-interception loss to the Raiders. He’s shown himself to be much better than that in the first four games of the season, so this pick is all about the Pack getting right over the bye and Denver’s utter inability to stop anyone from scoring points.
Bonus contrarian pick: Cleveland over Indianapolis
It’s all about the Browns’ defense here. That’s it. They give up 121.4 passing yards and 79 rushing yards per game. That’s barely two trips down the field for opponents, and they’ve played some heavy-hitting opponents! The Colts are not at a level where I think they can overcome this D.
(Photo of Geno Smith: Michael Allio / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)