Now that we’ve hit the midway point of the season, I thought it was an ideal time to do a takeaways column for what we’ve seen and heard.
Read Feldman’s CFB coaches hot seat temperature check here.
1. USC star Caleb Williams’ QB rating is 20 points higher than it was last year when he won the Heisman. But after his three-interception first half in the Trojans’ blowout loss to Notre Dame, it feels the Trojans’ season took a big punch in the gut — and that his hopes of joining Archie Griffin as the only player to become a repeat winner of the most celebrated individual honor in college football is almost gone.
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Williams still makes USC a dangerous opponent, but the team’s issues this season have been more than just a shaky defense still trying to find its way. The O-line was also overmatched at Notre Dame and just didn’t look like it was the kind of group that can be title-contender-worthy. It all makes for a curious dynamic surrounding the USC star.
The best summation of Williams’ play in the past month or so came from an old NFL scout I know and really respect: “It’s like he’s trying to hit a five-run home run every time.”
2. Preseason prediction I feel even better about halfway into the season: Michigan to win it all.
3. I know J.J. McCarthy and Michigan haven’t played anyone of note, but he has looked very sharp and comfortable this season. Probably the biggest question over whether the Wolverines could close the supposed “talent” gap needed to win a national title was whether the former five-star recruit could elevate his game and make the Michigan passing attack that much more potent. I’m buying it. On third downs this season, he’s connecting on 81 percent of his passes and has a 247 QB rating, which is way higher than anyone else in FBS.
4. Preseason prediction I feel even worse about halfway into the season: Texas Tech to be a top-20 team and make a lot of noise in the Big 12. There’s no shame in losing a tight game to a very talented Oregon team. Losing at Wyoming I did not see coming, nor did I expect Tech to lose at West Virginia or get whipped by Kansas State.
5. The matchup I’m most intrigued about this weekend in the huge Penn State–Ohio State showdown in Columbus is how well the Buckeyes O-line handles an exceptionally athletic Nittany Lion front. The rebuilt Ohio State front has been shaky for large portions of the season and really had its hands full against Maryland in the Shoe two weeks ago. Manny Diaz has a bunch of our Freaks List players who can get after Kyle McCord and the Buckeyes run game. Adisa Isaac (7.5 TFLs), Chop Robinson (5 TFLs) and Zane Durant (4.5 TFLs), along with linebackers Curtis Jacobs and Abdul Carter, are why this is the nation’s No. 1 defense and are holding opponents to just 3.42 yards per play. Last year, the Buckeyes with CJ Stroud and two NFL offensive tackles gained 7.53 yards a play in Happy Valley.
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College football Freaks List 2023: Bruce Feldman's rankings with a true freshman at No.1
6. LSU has had a disappointing start, going 5-2 with a blowout loss to FSU in its opener and then falling to Ole Miss, but Jayden Daniels has been amazing. Without him, the Tigers are probably 3-4. He leads the nation in total offense and absolutely deserves to be in the thick of the Heisman race. The former Arizona State QB has always shown great toughness, feet and decision-making. Now, his accuracy and the spin he’s putting on the ball has taken a big step forward in his game, which has translated to much better downfield passing. His coaches rave about his work habits, and those aren’t only translating with wonderful chemistry with the Tigers gifted wideouts but with how he handles the game at the line pre-snap, because his preparation and recall are so good. He is the biggest reason why I haven’t totally given up yet on LSU’s College Football Playoff hopes.
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Super Bowl winners vouch for new Arizona coach Jedd Fisch
7. Jedd Fisch is proving to be one of the best hires any school has made in the last five years. Arizona was in disarray when he took over, on a 12-game losing streak and coming off of a 70-7 loss to arch-rival Arizona State. A first-time head coach who had bounced around between the NFL and the college ranks, Fisch’s hire wasn’t well received locally at the time — at all. A headline in a local paper: “Jedd Fisch hire has Arizona Wildcat fans up in arms with reaction.” The comments in here are pretty brutal, especially in retrospect.
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Fisch wasted little time, rallying the football community and pushing the right button almost every step of the way.
His debut season, not surprisingly, was rough. They went 1-11, but he got a lot of buy-in from the players he inherited and put together a good staff that has evaluated really well. They were respectable in 2022, going 5-7 and wining two of their final three games. The Wildcats are now 4-3 and just pounded No. 19 Washington State, 44-6, in Pullman. Two of Arizona’s three losses have been in overtime — and both of those games were on the road, at Mississippi State and at USC. Their other loss was a close one, 31-24 to No. 5 Washington.
Fisch’s team has only gotten better since his starting QB Jayden de Laura sustained a leg injury in Week 4. Backup Noah Fifita, a redshirt freshman, has jumped in and been superb. In the offseason they’d also lost a couple of star players through the portal, most notably first-team All-Pac-12 wide receiver Dorian Singer (to USC), but Arizona has kept improving regardless. The Wildcats probably aren’t ready to compete for a spot in the Pac-12 title game, but the way they’ve turned things around, Fisch deserves some Coach of the Year consideration.
8. Jimbo Fisher’s winning percentage as a college head coach with Jameis Winston: 96 percent. Jimbo Fisher’s winning percentage as a college head coach without Jameis Winston: 68 percent.
9. A name to watch if/when Texas A&M buys out Jimbo: Duke’s Mike Elko, the former Aggies defensive coordinator who has done a remarkable job at Duke.
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10. An NFL scout I know made an interesting comparison for Washington star QB Michael Penix Jr: Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. That’s not bad praise in that he’s viewed in some corners as a good pure pocket passer. The former Indiana QB has impressed this year with his arm and his ability to drive the ball to all parts of the field.
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11. Even the scouts I’ve talked to who are leery of Penix’s draft stock because of his injury history gush about his ability to throw the deep ball. I think Penix is a lot more athletic than he’s been given credit for. He’s now thrown for over 300 yards in 16 of his 19 games at Washington and he had 298 in one of those other three games. It’s a remarkable transformation in Seattle. Consider this in the previous four years before Penix, Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb arrived: the Huskies only had six 300-yard passing performances in the previous four years combined.
12. James Madison is the best-kept secret in football, and we need to be talking more about them Dukes. They’re 6-0 and have a nasty defense. They beat an ACC team, Virginia, and won at Troy, a terrific Group of Five team. JMU leads the nation in rush defense, and by a lot; the Dukes are holding opponents to just 1.49 yards per carry. UCLA is next best, almost a full yard behind at 2.29. Penn State is third at 2.40. JMU led the country last year too.
Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has had top-10 ranked defenses in each of his four seasons in both the FCS and now FBS since taking over the defense at JMU. What makes the defense so good? From talking to coaches in their new league, the Dukes have a very active, aggressive, twitchy D-line and a really smart group of linebackers that clean everything up. Haines, who played under Brady Hoke and Mark Smith at Ball State, also credits his time as an Ohio State staffer, learning more schematically from Mike Vrabel and Luke Fickell and then from Corey Hetherman, the Dukes’ DC when Haines was brought in as a co-DC.
13. I’ve come around on UNC. I know Drake Maye is special and getting Tez Walker eligible makes this offense so much more explosive, but the breakout star here is running back Omarion Hampton, a 220-pound sophomore who leads the ACC in rushing with 658 yard. He just went for almost 200 yards against Miami; the Canes hadn’t even given up 100 yards to any team through their first five games until Hampton ran wild. Hampton is a big, physical, downhill back with long speed who also can catch it out of the backfield. I can see why Tar Heels offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey thinks the sky is the limit for this kid.
14. Last Saturday’s trip to South Bend was a blast. It was just an awesome scene in a very special place. It was actually the first game I’ve seen at Notre Dame since the Bush Push game and the atmosphere was terrific. The school has done a wonderful job with the game day experience. Marcus Freeman has had to learn on the job over the past year-and-a-half and no doubt there have been some rocky moments, but I get the sense he’s building something pretty special there. The Irish have a lot of athletes on both sides of the ball. Can they do what Jim Harbaugh has eventually gotten Michigan to, and elevate this program from very good to great? Maybe. That was the sticking point that the Brian Kelly regime never was able to get past in South Bend. The recruiting and development piece of all that takes a lot of time, as it has in Ann Arbor. I am curious to see where this program goes now that it has some real momentum — and some time to catch its breath.
The Irish have the No. 8-ranked recruiting class according to 247Sports. It’s led by QB C.J. Carr, the No. 36 overall prospect, and top-50 WR Cam Williams. Notre Dame hasn’t finished higher than No. 9 since 2013 — the year it signed Jaylon Smith.
15. Speaking of powerhouse backs, MACtion now means a 235-pound Toledo freight train. Peny Boone who transferred in from Maryland, is tearing up the league for 6-1 Toledo. He’s run for almost 800 yards and is putting up 7.4 yards per carry. In three MAC games, he’s got 472 yards. Boone was over 250 pounds but has worked hard to get himself into much better shape.
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“Peny’s maturity and growth process has been fun to watch,” Toledo head coach Jason Candle told me this week. “He has worked really hard on some detail things that maybe held him back in the past. From his process of preparation to his diet and the little things that allow you to be the best version of yourself he has embraced them. Really proud of him.”
(Top photo of Michigan’s Jaylen Harrell: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty)