The Broncos are coming off their mini-bye and on Sunday will host a Green Bay Packers team that has lost three of its last four games. Let’s get to this week’s questions:
Why in the world did the prior ownership’s management team feel it was appropriate to hire a new general manager (George Paton) and coach (Nathaniel Hackett) right before they sold the team? The new ownership group should’ve been able to hire its own guys. Looks really bad in hindsight. Just dumb. — Andy S.
Paton was hired by former CEO and owner designee Joe Ellis in January of 2021, more than a year before the team was put on the market. It is impossible to attract strong candidates for a position without offering industry-standard multi-year contracts. So when Ellis and former general manager John Elway mutually decided it was best for Elway to move into a big-picture role following the 2020 season, the Broncos hired a day-to-day executive in Paton who was respected around the league for his scouting acumen and had been on a shortlist of GM candidates for several teams.
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As for the hiring of Hackett by Paton in the winter of 2022, yes, the Broncos were already moving toward a sale. But once Denver arrived at the decision to fire Vic Fangio following the 2021 season — he posted a 19-30 record and didn’t make the playoffs during his three-year tenure — it needed a new head coach. You obviously can’t wait until the summer to make that hire — and, again, nobody is taking a one-year contract as a head coach. You could make the argument that Paton should have kept Fangio so that the new ownership group could make its own decision on a head coach after the 2022 season, but as we clearly found out, there was nothing stopping controlling owner Greg Penner and his group from doing that anyway. They fired Hackett after 15 games and hired Sean Payton after an extensive search last offseason. There is no slowing the churn of the NFL calendar, whether there is an ownership change or not.
Which players are the leaders on this team responsible for holding other players accountable? — Will H.
This is a great question, even if it’s not an easy one to answer. When Peyton Manning retired following the 2015 season, the Broncos didn’t only lose a Hall of Fame quarterback. They lost one of the great leaders the game has seen, a player who consistently pulled teammates — coaches and executives, too — to his level, demanding excellence at every turn. Importantly, he delivered results from a production standpoint from the moment he arrived, giving him credibility as he challenged those around him.
The Broncos simply don’t have leaders who have won here before, making it difficult to share a blueprint with younger teammates. Players like quarterback Russell Wilson and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, voted captains by their peers before the season, have had championship-level success at other stops, but that hasn’t translated in Denver. I don’t think it’s a matter of the Broncos not having good leadership qualities throughout their roster, but who is actually being trusted to hold teammates accountable? That’s hard to see right now, and it’s a dynamic that can be difficult to create when the payoff in the form of victories isn’t coming.
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When will Penner tell Payton/Paton to shelve Russell Wilson for the season so they can avoid an injury guarantee and move on from the former Seahawks quarterback at the end of the season? Or do they honestly believe they can make a run at respectability this season? — Andrew J.
What will it take to start Jarrett Stidham? In very limited time, he seems to have a much quicker release than Wilson and actually runs the offense and throws to the open receiver. — Maggie N.
This topic is not going away so long as the Broncos keep losing, particularly if Wilson continues to struggle like he did in Week 6 against the Chiefs. The 12-year veteran last Thursday posted the worst EPA (expected points added) per dropback in 179 career games, according to TruMedia. It was the third-worst quarterback performance under Sean Payton as a head coach by EPA per dropback. I think the general belief is that Wilson’s experience provides a baseline standard that can help you evaluate everything else around him and still compete. That was largely the case in the first four games of the season. But if it gets to a point where Wilson is no longer providing that consistently, it would behoove Payton to see what he has in Stidham.
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As far as a Penner intervention, I don’t see that happening. That’s because I believe he and Payton talked through various quarterback scenarios extensively during the hiring process and into the offseason. I believe there is alignment in what they want to do and Payton will be left to decide when and if it is time to make a change at quarterback, the organization fully aware of the ramifications that would follow.
How does trading away your best players, as some have suggested (Jerry Jeudy, Pat Surtain II, Justin Simmons), help make the Broncos a better team? — Bryan B.
Is Sean Payton cleaning house before the 2024 draft? — Roger S.
Here is the deal with the trade deadline. I simply don’t think there will be massive interest in many of the players on Denver’s roster. Teams aren’t lining up to pluck handfuls of players off a last-place team, at least not for a significant return. The Broncos shouldn’t be in the business of doing bad deals just because they are 1-5. If reasonable offers come your way, great. But moving on — the idea that you should “sell anything that isn’t bolted down” — doesn’t make sense if it’s not making you better in the long run. Late-round pick swaps aren’t doing that.
We know Payton is going to continue to reshape the roster because he’s already doing it. There weren’t many free agents who re-signed with the Broncos this offseason, linebacker Alex Singleton and safety Kareem Jackson being notable exceptions. Payton also cut veterans Ronald Darby and Graham Glasgow and has since moved on from Randy Gregory and Frank Clark. The roster already looks considerably different than it did in 2022 and the 2024 version will have a very different complexion than the 2023 group. But I think Payton has a plan for that overhaul that is more nuanced than simply selling everyone off at the deadline.
I believe Jeudy is the most likely candidate to be moved. It simply hasn’t worked here with the 2020 first-round pick. Payton admitted on Monday that Jeudy has been “frustrated” as his production has waned following his strong finish to 2022. Trading Jeudy would mean not having to pay his $12.99 million fifth-year salary in 2024, savings the Broncos could use if they do decide to move on from Wilson and absorb an $85 million dead-cap hit — be it in one chunk or over the course of two seasons.
Trading Surtain should be viewed as a non-starter if the theoretical offers for him don’t begin with a pair of first-round picks.
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Is this the worst team in Broncos history? — Daniel O.
Since teams began playing at least 16 regular-season games in 1978, the worst record for a Broncos team during a full season was the 4-12 mark produced by the 2010 squad. The second-worst team from a winning percentage perspective was the 5-12 unit coached by Hackett last season. The common thread: Both seasons featured in-season firings of their respective head coaches (Josh McDaniels in 2010). From a pure record standpoint, the Broncos would need to lose eight out of their final 11 games to reach the distinction as the worst team in the franchise’s modern era.
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But this team is on pace to have a far worse point differential than either of those other teams. The 2010 team had a minus-127 point margin. The 2020 team coached by Fangio was actually the second-worst in terms of margin at minus-123. The 2023 Broncos are already at minus-71 through six games. Much of that was the result of a 50-point loss to the Dolphins in Week 3, but Denver has also lost by double digits in each of its last two games.
There is still time for Payton to make improvements with his first Broncos team, but the available evidence suggests this does have a chance to be among the franchise’s worst seasons.
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If you were the Broncos general manager on draft night with the chore of picking between Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, which would you choose and why? — Kameron B.
In Austin Mock’s latest projection of the top-10 order in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Broncos are slated to have the fourth pick, but there is competition at the bottom. The Broncos are one of six teams with a record of 1-5 or worse, so time will tell whether Denver actually falls into position to make this kind of choice.
But in the interest of this exercise, I’m going with Drake Maye. I’m not trying to make a bigger deal out of Williams’ awful performance against Notre Dame than it was, but it was enough to make me question whether his oft-celebrated skills as an improviser will be able to work consistently against NFL defenses. Maybe it’s just because I’ve been watching Wilson too frequently escape the pocket rather than move within it the past two years, but I love Maye’s footwork and his ability to work around the rush. The North Carolina quarterback is great on the move and can make plays that way when he has to, but I think he’ll better command of the pocket as a pro than Williams will.
Look, you’re definitely going to want to follow our draft experts to get continued — and far more in-depth — analysis on these quarterback prospects, but in my view, Maye would have the edge right now.
(Top photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
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