Read The Athletic’s latest College Football Playoff projections.
The Washington Huskies were the big winners of Week 7 with a dramatic victory against the Oregon Ducks. Both teams are still alive in the College Football Playoff hunt and could see each other again in the Pac-12 title game, but for now it’s advantage Huskies.
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The Huskies now have a 41.9 percent chance of making the CFP according to my projection model. That makes Washington the fourth-most likely team to make it in the field of four, behind the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes. The Alabama Crimson Tide win the national title in more of my projections than Washington, but the Crimson Tide still have a few more teams ahead of them in terms of getting into the CFP.
The field of realistic contenders is starting to shrink. There are 16 teams that make the CFP in more than 1 percent of the simulations. That number drops to 10 teams that make it in more than 6 percent of the simulations.
Here’s how the model works: I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. After every simulation is complete, I have developed a model that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” derived from prior resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season.
Here’s how the top 25 national title contenders rank after Week 7, according to my model.
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Projected national title and College Football Playoff chances
| team | title | playoff |
|---|---|---|
20.9% | 57.5% | |
14.3% | 48.7% | |
13.2% | 48.8% | |
9.2% | 31.6% | |
8.7% | 41.9% | |
7.0% | 27.7% | |
6.9% | 35.8% | |
6.5% | 29.7% | |
6.1% | 32.8% | |
3.5% | 25.3% | |
1.03% | 5.4% | |
1.02% | 4.8% | |
0.52% | 2.2% | |
0.44% | 2.7% | |
0.28% | 1.1% | |
0.15% | 0.61% | |
0.1% | 0.47% | |
0.08% | 0.64% | |
0.05% | 0.61% | |
0.03% | 1.01% | |
0.03% | 0.6% | |
0.01% | 0.06% | |
0.01% | 0.01% | |
0.0% | 0.17% | |
0.0% | 0.1% |
Biggest risers in national title chances
Ohio State: +2.5% (10.7% to 13.2%)
Washington: +1.9% (6.8% to 8.7%)
Penn State: +1.6% (4.9% to 6.5%)
Biggest fallers in national title chances
Michigan: -2.7% (17% to 14.3%)
USC: -2.1% (3.1% to 1%)
Georgia: -1.9% (22.8% to 20.9%)
Oregon was only given a 1.8 percent chance of winning the national title in last week’s projections so, even with a loss, the Ducks didn’t have far to fall.
Biggest risers in CFP chances
North Carolina: +9.5% (15.8% to 25.3%)
Ohio State: +8.6% (40.2% to 48.8%)
Washington: +8.5% (33.4% to 41.9%)
Biggest fallers in CFP chances
USC: -11.4% (16.2% to 4.8%)
Oregon: -5.4% (10.8% to 5.4%)
Texas: -4.6% (32.3% to 27.7%)
(Photo of Drew Allar: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)