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When the New York Jets’ schedule was released in May, the first six games were considered a gantlet. Four of the six opponents made the playoffs last year. After the bye in Week 7, it was said, the schedule would ease up. The Jets simply had to get through the hard part relatively unscathed, get to the bye and then go off. Even with Aaron Rodgers, a 3-3 record at the bye would’ve been viewed as a positive.
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Well, the Jets didn’t get through those six games unscathed. They lost Rodgers (four plays into Week 1) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (in Week 5) to Achilles injuries and left tackle Duane Brown to a hip injury. Cornerbacks D.J. Reed (two games) and and cornerback Sauce Gardner (one game) also missed time with concussions.
And yet, here the Jets are at the bye, 3-3 after upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles, beating the Denver Broncos and suffering a close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 despite losing Rodgers in the first quarter.
“We put ourselves in a good spot,” defensive end Jermaine Johnson said. “And now we have an opportunity.”
As the Jets learned last year after starting 6-3 and finishing 7-10, things can change fast. They haven’t accomplished anything yet, not really. But at least there’s hope again. (Insert the motto from “Ted Lasso”: “It’s the hope that kills you.”)
If the Jets want to build on this start and make a run for the postseason, it’s no easy task: Only four of 16 AFC teams even have a losing record. But there are a few things the Jets can fix and some moves they can make for a playoff push.
Here are seven things that need to happen:
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1. Get more aggressive early — and in the red zone
Wide receiver Garrett Wilson feels disrespected.
“They don’t think too highly of us on offense,” he said after the Eagles game. “It seems like the mentality we’re getting from the defense is: Let’s make them throw the ball and let’s see if they can do it. I know we’re taking that personally.”
Quarterback Zach Wilson has felt it, too.
The Eagles “came out and pressed us up from the beginning of the game and said: You’ve gotta beat us down the field,” he said. “It is disrespectful but we need to prove it. I don’t think that’s a bad strategy on their part at all because we need to prove that. … We gotta understand that if someone wants to play us like that, we’ve gotta make them pay for it.”
It was a mature response by the Jets quarterback — and a fair assessment of the situation: Why should anyone be scared of the Jets’ offense right now? They are averaging only 18.8 points per game and rank last in third-down conversions, second-to-last in red-zone touchdown percentage and last in first-quarter scoring. They’ve yet to score a touchdown in the first quarter.
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It would help to start faster, both in the first quarter and generally early in offensive drives. The Jets rank 31st in average third-down distance (8.51 yards) and, in turn, have struggled on third-and-long, where they rank 30th in conversions. The solution might be simple: Get more aggressive on early downs, and early in the game.
The Jets’ average depth of target on passing plays in the first quarter (5.1 yards) ranks 30th, per TruMedia. In the fourth quarter: 8.4 yards, which ranks 19th. They’ve had 17 red-zone drives, but only five have resulted in touchdowns, and one (against the Eagles) came on a drive that started on the 8-yard line.
On nine of the 16 other drives, the Jets opened with a run on first and/or second down, and only two of those nine drives ended with a touchdown. They’re converting only 25 percent of their third downs in the red zone. A lot of it has been drive-killing miscues — three sacks, four penalties and one drop have come in the red zone.
“We’re right there,” tight end Tyler Conklin said. “We are moving the ball, we are getting there a lot, and for whatever the reason is, we’re not scoring. I don’t think it’s going to be a crazy-difficult fix, we just have to figure out what the tweak is, what it is we’re doing wrong.”
Zach Wilson said it comes down to “eliminating negative plays.”
“I feel like we’re hitting the red zone and then putting ourselves too far behind the sticks to have a shot at it,” he said. “Every play you can point to one guy or two guys that are making a mistake and everyone is taking their turn. One play it’s me, then it’s him, then him, then him, so collectively as a group we have to find a way to do our jobs.”
Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has finally started to show some confidence in Wilson after initially calling plays that seemed to indicate a a fear he’d mess up. Wilson is also getting rid of the ball quicker. He has the 12th-fastest time to throw (2.6 seconds) over the last three weeks, per TruMedia, and completed 67.3 percent of his passes. Over the previous three games: 3.12 seconds (ranked 32nd) and 52.4 percent pass completion rate.
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Progress is good, but it’s not enough yet. If Hackett doesn’t fix the Jets’ red-zone and third-down issues, this will not be a playoff team.
2. Get Breece Hall even more involved
Hall dominated against the Broncos with a significant workload: 25 touches, 194 yards and a touchdown. He wasn’t as effective rushing against the Eagles (12 carries for 39 yards and a touchdown), but Hackett found other ways to get him involved: Hall had five catches for 54 yards, a few of them coming as receivers pulled coverage away down the field, giving him more room to operate. Expect Hall to be more involved in the passing game going forward.
“Getting him the ball is imperative for the offense to be successful,” wide receiver Allen Lazard said. “The more touches he has, the better.”
3. Play the youngsters
Let’s start at wide receiver. Clearly, Mecole Hardman isn’t in the Jets’ plans. But Randall Cobb shouldn’t be either at this point. By most metrics, Cobb has been the worst wide receiver in the NFL playing a significant role.
Consider: 89 receivers have run at least 100 routes. Cobb (20 yards) has the fewest yards of all of them. He has the second-worst EPA per target and has two drops on only 12 targets. Cobb hasn’t helped as a run blocker, either: Pro Football Focus ranks him 145th of 146 receivers to play at least 20 run-blocking snaps.
Expect undrafted rookie Xavier Gipson — who was battling an ankle injury last week — to play more than him after the bye week.
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Elsewhere, the Jets have started to phase out the ineffective Dalvin Cook (nine snaps in Week 6) and it might be time to give rookie Israel Abanikanda, a healthy scratch all six games, a shot at some playing time. He’s more elusive and explosive than both Cook and Michael Carter, and even if the Jets don’t trust him in protection, they need to find some more explosive plays from someone other than Hall and Garrett Wilson. Abanikanda flashed that in the preseason.
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And at tight end, the Jets should be playing Jeremy Ruckert more than C.J. Uzomah. He’s had nice catches for first downs against both the Chiefs and Eagles and has proven to be a more effective blocker than Uzomah. The Jets average 4.3 rushing yards per carry with Uzomah on the field, and 6.8 with Ruckert.
4. Trade away Mecole Hardman
The Jets don’t have much interest in using Hardman despite his speed (28 snaps, three targets, one catch) and they’d be better served sending him elsewhere for a late-round pick. This counts as a loss on general manager Joe Douglas’ resume since it cost $4 million to sign him.
It also wouldn’t be surprising if the Jets moved on from defensive end Carl Lawson or found a way to jettison Cook.
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5. Create some cap space
The Jets wouldn’t save much money by getting rid of Hardman, Lawson or Cook because of their contract structures, but if Douglas wants to add any players before the deadline — he usually does — they’ll have to clear some cap. They currently have only $5.7 million in space, per Over the Cap, which is barely enough for operating costs a team needs during a season for injuries, practice squad call-ups and free-agent signings.
One avenue would be restructuring linebacker C.J. Mosley’s deal since he has a $21.4 million cap hit.
6. Trade for another wide receiver
Garrett Wilson has looked like a star when the Jets have actually been throwing him the ball. Lazard (14 catches, 210 yards, one touchdown) has been solid, but hasn’t been enough of a threat for defenses to really need to account for him. Gipson has some potential but he’s unproven and is more of a slot receiver/gadget player right now. Hardman is on the way out. Cobb isn’t good.
If the Jets want to go all-in on a playoff run, it wouldn’t be the worst idea for Douglas to go and get another weapon. Looking around the league, some intriguing players who might be worth researching: Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens), Terrace Marshall (Carolina Panthers), Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton (Broncos) and Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears).
Hunter Renfrow (Las Vegas Raiders) has been mentioned, but he’s been as ineffective (59 yards on 102 routes run) as Cobb and is another small slot receiver.
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7. Find some O-line depth
Losing Vera-Tucker and rookie Joe Tippmann (thigh) in back-to-back weeks is a fairly devastating blow, especially since the right side of the offensive line had been coming into its own. Veteran Wes Schweitzer (38.8 pass-blocking grade in Week 6, per PFF) will step in at right guard. Depth on the interior is an issue.
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Backup tackle Billy Turner started at right guard for the Miami Dolphins in 2015 and the Green Bay Packers in 2019, and also has experience at left guard. Veteran tackle Dennis Kelly — signed to the practice squad last week — played some guard at the beginning of his career. Guards Jason Poe (zero NFL games) and Xavier Newman (three games) are also on the practice squad.
Brown will return soon and it will be interesting to see what the Jets do at tackle with Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell when he’s back.
There aren’t many appealing options in free agency — the big name available is La’el Collins, who met with the Jets last week — but the Jets should add someone for insurance.
(Photo of Garrett Wilson: Elsa / Getty Images)
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