It’s often said that college basketball is a guard’s game. Indeed, last season, teams that tended to have the most success were the ones that had experienced, tough guards who made the right plays and were able to handle the pressure — both from opposing defenses and from the moment itself. San Diego State, Connecticut, Florida Atlantic and Miami all had upperclass guards who were not only great, but were reliable and consistent.
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Given that, it should be unsurprising that most of the players ranked in this top-20 are upperclassmen. Thirteen of the 20 here are at least in their fourth year, with an additional four coming into their third season. Age matters in college basketball, and it matters more in the backcourt than anywhere. This year, I’ve also decided not to rank any freshmen in the top-20, essentially making these returners lists. Instead, I’ve listed six freshman guards below that I’m excited to watch, and who I think could emerge into top-20 status by the end of the year. You’ll also get five non-freshmen that I’m expecting breakouts from, including a pair at the top that I think have a real shot to jump into Power 6 all-conference status.
(Quick note: If you don’t see somebody that you expect to see on this ranking but who could also be reasonably classified as a wing, don’t get preemptively angry. The odds are that they simply will be ranked within the top-20 wings ranking. Justin Moore at Villanova is a prime example. He played a real amount of lead guard last season when he returned from injury, but also has mostly played as a slashing 2-guard. I decided to slot him with the wings to make my own life a bit easier because, frankly, that positional group has a bit less depth nationwide.)
1. Tyler Kolek | 6-3 guard | senior | Marquette
The reigning Big East Player of the Year is the consummate winner. Kolek does everything you need a lead guard to do. He works perfectly in tandem with Marquette big man Oso Ighodaro to run the show for the nation’s best offense, moving the ball around and getting it to his teammates in the best positions. There is no selfishness with the Golden Eagles, as they posted the 16th-best assist rate nationally last season. That’s a credit in large part to Kolek, who dished out 7.5 assists per game to finish third nationally. But whereas some guards who dish out high assist totals can sometimes dribble the ball into the ground and make it on their own terms, the ball isn’t sticky with Kolek. He makes the right play at the right time, regardless of whether it’s on his terms.
Beyond that, he plays at his own pace as a ballhandler and never looks rushed. He can live in the midrange and draw defenders, or finish from the midrange with touch, smart footwork and beautiful floaters. The smooth lefty doesn’t move with elite speed or quickness, but he decelerates and changes gears exceptionally well, allowing him to create that little bit of space he needs. On top of it, he shoots about 40 percent from 3, makes his free throws, and then isn’t afraid to get on the ground to get loose balls. He’s a truly great college guard who thrives in the oceans of space that the Golden Eagles’ offense gives him. Marquette should be set to have yet another great season behind Kolek, who also won the Big East Tournament MVP and has every chance to be an All-American in 2024.
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2. Tyrese Proctor | 6-5 guard | sophomore | Duke
Proctor is probably the highest upside guard in college basketball this season, an Australian pick-and-roll machine who gets to his spots, makes plays for his teammates, but also uses his size to attack mismatches in the backcourt. It took Proctor half the season to adjust to college hoops, but by the time mid-January rolled around, he figured out a lot of his game. An ACC All-Freshman pick, Proctor averaged 11 points, 4.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds over his final 20 games, 15 of which Duke won. He only turned the ball over 1.8 times per game in that sample, and also played extremely high-level point-of-attack defense while shooting well from 3.
Proctor had a good shot to go in the first round if he’d entered the 2023 NBA Draft as a 6-foot-5 teenage guard who can dribble, pass, and shoot. But he decided to go back to Duke, where he’s likely to play an even more centralized role. Proctor’s game in ball screens is slick, as he uses quick behind-the-back and crossover moves mixed with hesitation dribbles to keep defenders off-balance or on his hip. From there, he uses his size and live-dribble passing skill to be able to create kickout chances for his teammates at an expert level. The next step for Proctor is his finishing on the interior. Last season, he was more of a two-level scorer from 3 and in the midrange. But with Kyle Filipowski back and other floor-spacers like T.J. Power around in the frontcourt, there could be more space for him to operate, allowing for easier finishing lanes. If things break right for Proctor, he could be a star this year.
3. Trey Alexander | 6-5 guard | junior | Creighton
Alexander strongly considered turning pro last season after a big-time sophomore leap, but he decided at the last minute to return to school to lead Creighton’s backcourt. Following the departure of Ryan Nembhard to Gonzaga, Alexander should see more time on the ball even with Steven Ashworth around, as Ashworth is a terrific shooter who can fly off of off-ball actions and fire. Expect Greg McDermott to get creative with how he utilizes those two in the backcourt. But if Alexander showcases the ability to initiate sets regularly like he did late in his freshman season at the lead guard spot after Nembhard’s injury — he averaged over four assists per game over Creighton’s last 13 games in 2021-22 —- while also maintaining his shooting and confidence as a scorer, he’ll take a significant leap this year for the Bluejays.
Don’t sleep on Alexander’s defense, either. The league doesn’t name an All-Defense team — come on, Big East, get with the times! — but Alexander very likely would have made it with his aggressive point-0f-attack defense, especially on guys at the one through three spots. Alexander is big, and he possesses potentially one of the most well-rounded skill sets among all college guards. He has every chance to be one of the best players in the country this year.
4. Wade Taylor IV | 6-0 guard | junior | Texas A&M
The preseason player of the year in the SEC, Taylor is fast even by SEC standards. He plays at an incredible speed and tempo, while maintaining the obscene body control to stop and pop at any time he’s within 25 feet of the rim. Honestly, his tape looks like he’s been put into fast forward while everyone around him is playing in regular speed. I’m not sure there is any player in the country whom Taylor can’t turn the corner on and force help against. After a slow start by his standards, Taylor’s last three months were absurd. He averaged nearly 18 points while shooting 37 percent from 3. He got to the line whenever he wanted as opposing defenses struggled to stay in front of him, attempting about six free throws per game and making them at a 90 percent clip. For a Texas A&M team that doesn’t exactly play at a lightning quick tempo, Taylor’s ability to create instant offense is an enormous part of what makes them such a tough team to stop.
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I love the way the Aggies are built this year, with Taylor leading what has potential to be the best guard positional group in the SEC along with Tyrece Radford, Jace Carter and Eli Lawrence. Throw in physical bigs Henry Coleman III and Julius Marble, and the Aggies have the makings of being a legitimate threat in the NCAA Tournament under Buzz Williams.
5. DaJuan Harris Jr. | 6-1 guard | senior | Kansas
I just love everything about the way Harris plays basketball. There is not a selfish bone in his body. Everything he does is about trying to help the team win. Harris only averaged 8.9 points per game last year, but he contributes across every other facet at an elite level. He won the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award as an awesome point-of-attack defender who disrupts the opposition from getting into its sets. He also grabbed 2.2 steals per game with lightning quick hands and even quicker reaction time. Everything he does sets the tone for the Jayhawks.
And don’t sleep on the offense, either. As a passer and playmaker, Harris dished out 6.2 assists per game while only turning it over two times, consistently finding his teammates in the best spots to succeed. In terms of overall offense derived from points and assists per game, Harris’ 23.3 was actually just barely behind All-American Jalen Wilson’s 25.5. The most egregious snub of awards season last year was that Harris didn’t make a single All-Big 12 team. His offensive production by that metric was right in the range of other first- and second-team lead guards like Damion Baugh (26.3), Marcus Carr (25.6), and Keyonte George (22.2). Much like with George, he actually also statistically out-produced third-team guards Erik Stevenson (21.4) and L.J. Cryer (20.5). While he led Kansas to a Big 12 title and a No. 1 seed. You understand why these awards frustrate me every year, right? My bet is that he gets handsomely rewarded with postseason honors this year as he leads what has potential to be the best team in the county.
6. Tyson Walker | 6-3 guard | senior | Michigan State
Walker rightfully won All-Big Ten honors last season after spending his first season in East Lansing adjusting a bit more than expected to the pace of play and the speed of the game. But the reason to rank Walker so highly here is due to how he closed the season. Over his last 11 games — the most important stretch of the season for the Spartans after five losses in seven games saw them move just a little bit closer to the edge of the bubble — Walker took over. He averaged 17 points and 3.5 assists while shooting 50 percent from the field, 43 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line. He was the best player on the floor in the team’s second-round win over Marquette, as the Michigan State defense frustrated the Kolek-Ighodaro combination. He attacked relentlessly and got exactly where he needed every time he went down the court.
In my opinion, Walker is the best returning guard in the Big Ten, and he’ll form half of one of the best backcourts in the country along with A.J. Hoggard. The duo certainly shares the lead responsibilities, but Hoggard gets to be more of the playmaker, and Walker gets to be the scorer. With two senior playmakers manning the perimeter, Tom Izzo has every opportunity to get back to the Final Four again.
7. Tylor Perry | 5-11 lead | senior | Kansas State
Perry has been one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball over the last two years at North Texas, where he won the Conference USA Player of the Year award last season while leading the Mean Green to an NIT title. But don’t let the lack of hype get it twisted: he’s one of the elite guards in college basketball. Even though he’s just 5-11, he dominates in ball screens and is an elite pull-up threat from all over the court. He’s gotten better as a driver and can finish well on the interior. On top of that, I love the way he fights defensively, working his way around ball screens and getting back into plays despite his diminutive size.
He’ll be the replacement for Markquis Nowell in an offense that is tailor-made for point guard success. It’ll look a bit different because Perry is more of a scorer whereas Nowell was more of a distributor. But Perry will have every opportunity to play on the ball and succeed. Additionally, his numbers last season didn’t drop off much against good teams. In 12 games, per KenPom, against Tier A+B competition, he had a 62.7 true-shooting percentage, similar assist and turnover rates, and actually finished better inside. He had 23 points in an overtime win against Oklahoma State, averaged 18.5 points in two games against Florida Atlantic and was the best player on the court in the team’s win against Wisconsin in the NIT.
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8. Santiago Vescovi | 6-3 scoring guard | senior | Tennessee
A two-time first-team All-SEC player, Vescovi is the kind of smart shooter with on-ball skill that every team could use. The raw numbers don’t always look incredible as he plays for a Tennessee team that tends to spread the wealth offensively, but Vescovi has averaged about 13 points per game in each of the last two seasons while firing away from 3 over seven times per game. He makes those 3s at about a 39 percent clip, and does so off of a variety of different actions that make it difficult to guard. Then, he also can run ball screens and initiate sets, as well as attack closeouts and keep defenses in rotation. Off that, he’s a smart decision-maker and sharp passer, rarely turning the ball over. The Uruguayan started his career as a real problem on defense but has turned himself into a positive player on that end who is constantly in the right spots. Tennessee had the best defense in the country last year, and while nobody would necessarily say he was the biggest reason why, I do think it’s reasonable to say he’s a piece of the success. In all, Vescovi has just turned himself into an exceptionally well-rounded guard. That’s why coaches across the Tennessee love him, and he’ll likely be a three-time All-SEC guard by the end of the year.
9. Jamal Shead | 6-1 guard | senior | Houston
There’s a lot of hype around L.J. Cryer’s transfer to Houston, but Shead is still the guy who stirs the drink for the Cougars. He’s the exact kind of guard who has had immense success under Kelvin Sampson, and he’s rightfully been named to back-to-back All-AAC teams. His defense sets the tone for everything Houston is about. He’s one of the best, most aggressive on-ball defenders in the country. He fights over screens with tenacity. He slides in front of driving guards, then walls up with his chest to stop them from going any further and forces them into contested shots. His hands are incredibly disruptive, starting fast-break opportunities. For a team that has prided itself on defense in Sampson’s time, finishing in the top-10 nationally according to KenPom in each of the last three years, he’s the guy that makes it go. On top of that, he’s a really sharp passer and playmaker, makes good decisions, and is athletic enough to get dribble penetration regularly. I love everything about the way Shead plays the game, and expect very little drop off from him as he enters the Big 12.
(I’m sure Houston fans will wonder where Cryer is. I’m not quite as high on him as others. The small shooting guard archetype makes him look as if he’s a like-for-like replacement of Marcus Sasser, but Sasser was a truly elite defender in his own right and also had far more shake off the bounce than Cryer does. Cryer will score points this year, unquestionably. But he’s never quite developed as a passer, and his defense was a real issue at Baylor last season. Per Pivot Analysis, when Cryer was on the court last season, the Bears beat opponents by about 7.3 points per 100 possessions. When he was off the court, they beat their opponents by about 19.2 points per 100. I’m not convinced that Cryer is quite as impactful as some preseason content I’ve seen would indicate.)
10. Boogie Ellis | 6-1 guard | senior | USC
I was never a particularly big fan of the way Ellis played at USC. He has a frustrating tendency to take some tough shots, and the process with his game doesn’t always look particularly clean. But Ellis really went a long way toward changing my perception late last season. He was unbelievable to finish the season for the Trojans, averaging 22.8 points over their final 11 games on a 45/42/85 shooting split that saw him vault his way into the best scoring guard in the country conversation. A big piece of this for Ellis was a total green light to fire away from 3, as he took 8.5 3s per game in that stretch after averaging just 4.9 3-point attempts per game over his first 53 games in a USC uniform. Look for him to keep firing this year for the Trojans, as they should be able to play him off the ball even more and will surround him with terrific passers like Collier and Kobe Johnson. It’s not impossible he drops 20 per game.
11. Aidan Mahaney | 6-3 guard | sophomore | Saint Mary’s
Mahaney is about as tough a shot-maker as you’ll find in college basketball. As a freshman, he averaged 14 points and two assists, but did so while shooting 40 percent from 3 and seemingly making big shot after big shot prior to his run in the NCAA Tournament. He averaged 19 points per game and out-played Brandin Podziemski twice in wins against Santa Clara. He drilled 20 on obscenely efficient play against San Diego State. He carried the Gaels to a win over Gonzaga, too, and even outplayed Houston’s guards in his ninth college basketball game. And why did I rank him ahead of Max Abmas? Because Mahaney dropped 25 against Oral Roberts in a big win in his first collegiate game, when Abmas only had 14 himself. Mahaney is just an absolutely fearless even against the toughest opposition. And he did all of that with an undersized frame that he was still growing into. Now, imagine him after a year of real physical development.
The numbers might look pedestrian, but remember that Mahaney also plays in one of the three slowest offenses in all of college basketball in terms of pace of play. With Logan Johnson gone, look for Mahaney to average in the vicinity of 18 points while also improving as a passer and playmaker. He’s the next Patty Mills and Matthew Dellavedova recruited by Randy Bennett and company in Moraga, and he’s the biggest reason why the Gaels were picked over Gonzaga in WCC preseason coaches’ poll.
12. Jahmir Young | 6-1 lead | senior | Maryland
One of the best returning guards to the Big Ten, Young is a sharp three-level scorer who loves to get into the midrange area and use touch finishes. The smooth lefty has an aesthetically beautiful, high-arcing shot that floats softly in the air before coming down. He can stop and pop on a dime in those tight midrange areas, and then also has a beautiful Euro-step move that he’ll use as at times to get all the way to the rim. He plays with awesome pace through his crossovers. They’re sudden and sharp, but patient and probing, allowing him to find his way into areas despite not being overly big or athletic. The next step for Young will be adding a more consistent 3-point shot to his repertoire. He takes tough ones, so his percentage isn’t necessarily indicative of his natural shooting skill at only 31.1 percent from distance. One thing that should help him get easier ones? The addition of DeShawn Harris-Smith, a terrific 6-foot-5 freshman wing whom scouts and coaches are raving about for the Terps due to his physicality and ability to get downhill. That pairing could be one of the best backcourts in the Big Ten.
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13. Max Abmas | 6-1 lead | senior | Texas
Abmas has been one of the great scorers in college basketball for the last three years, averaging 23 points per game for Paul Mills and Oral Roberts’ uptempo high ball-screen offense. Abmas has nearly unlimited range that starts at about 30 feet, which forces defenses out into oceans of space. You have to play at the level of the screen or blitz him to force the ball out of his hands. If you play more of a big, lumbering center, it’s going to be awfully difficult to deal with him in drop because of that unique pull-up ability. Over those last three years, Abmas has shot 39.4 percent on 9.2 3-point attempts per game, a ridiculous clip that largely comes off the bounce. Those numbers would make you think he should be ranked somewhere in the top-five here. So why isn’t he?
First, his numbers had a real tendency over the last two years to drop off when he played high-level teams. In six games against Tier A+B competition according to KenPom last year, Abmas posted just a 47.6 true-shooting percentage. In 2021-22 in five such games, his true-shooting percentage came in at 54.1 — solid, but not great. Additionally, his turnover rate has tended to spike against good teams. Can Abmas be as effective playing that kind of competition night-in, night-out? Texas does not run the kind of free-flowing, immaculately-spaced offense that Mills did. Rodney Terry’s teams at UTEP and Fresno State tended to be outside of KenPom’s top-100 offensively. They didn’t place a high emphasis on ball-movement or on 3-point shooting. On this roster, Kadin Shedrick, Dylan Disu, and Tyrese Hunter aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire as shooters. Will that change now at Texas? The jury is out, but if it doesn’t, there are real questions on how Abmas will adjust to such a scheme.
14. Reece Beekman | 6-3 guard | senior | Virginia
Beekman won the ACC Defensive Player of the Year last season and was an All-ACC performer. He’s just absolutely lightning quick and has remarkable hand-eye coordination for creating turnovers. The scoring numbers don’t look great, but Beekman has improved as an offensive player over his career and should get even more opportunity to run the show without Kihei Clark around in Charlottesville. Already a terrific passer, Beekman is unselfish and constantly keeps his eyes up to find open teammates on reversals and out of ball screens. He also took a bit of a leap this past season as a shooter, hitting 35 percent of his 3s even if he’s not exactly getting them up at volume. The big leap for Beekman will have to come as a finisher on the interior when he gets chances, but that speed he showcases on defense definitely transfers to the offensive end when he gets a chance in the open court or can get downhill out of a screen. Combine something like 13 points and seven assists with being in the conversation for the best perimeter defender in the country, and that’s absolutely a top-20 guard in the country.
15. Boo Buie | 6-2 lead | senior | Northwestern
Buie’s game is all about work rate. He can play on or off the ball, and he’s just one of those dudes who seems to be constantly pressuring the defense one way or another. If he’s on the ball, he’s aggressively hunting screens and trying to find angles to drive. If he’s off the ball, he’s moving all over the place and flying around, trying to get open for a catch-and-shoot 3. Buie was a bit inefficient surrounded by a Northwestern team that didn’t have a ton of consistent shooting or other reliable on-ball options. But Buie, playing next to another aggressive guard in Chase Audige, was a constant source of offense for a team that desperately needed it. He averaged 17 points and four assists, and has a real dynamism in how he attacks defenders smoothly with his handle. The ball is on a string for him, and he’s really developed well physically to be able to absorb contact in the Big Ten from some of the bigger bodies around the rim. Buie just had surgery in his right hand, so it’s worth tracking how he recovers as a shooter there. But all signs are positive that he’ll be ready for the start of the season, and with him, Northwestern will have a shot to go back to the NCAA Tournament.
16. Cam Spencer | 6-4 guard | senior | Connecticut
This one is a bit of a bet on my part. But I love everything about what Spencer brings to the table and think he was drastically underrated in a Rutgers offense that didn’t always know how to utilize him. He only took about two shots per game off screens, including less than one 3-point attempt per game off screens. For one of the best shooters in the country, point blank, to not get more shots off movement like that is pretty wild. The good news? He transferred to Connecticut, which had shooters take 3s off of screens more often than all but 12 teams in the country, per Synergy. Jordan Hawkins can be proof of concept for Spencer, who is a career 40.5 percent 3-point shooter on five attempts per game. Spencer has more to his game than just the shooting, though. He’s a good, high-pressure defender who has awesome attention to detail and excellent hands to get into passing lanes. The 6-4 guard averaged two steals per game in the Big Ten last year, and was a critical cog in a top-six defense nationally. Spencer also has some real on-ball skill, too, and can operate in ball screens as both a scorer and distributor. He’s the exact kind of extremely well-rounded guard who figures to have a ton of success in Storrs this year.
17. Ryan Nembhard | 6-0 lead | junior | Gonzaga
Another Nembhard at Gonzaga. While Ryan is much smaller than the 6-foot-5 Andrew, he is a similarly smart guard in ball screens who should thrive within this offense. The Zags run an uptempo ball-screen continuity scheme where Nembhard should have every opportunity to push the pace and make quick decisions. The Creighton transfer is the kind of well-rounded offensive threat who tends to work in Spokane. He can shoot a bit from distance and is comfortable driving and taking the space that is given to him by defenses in screens. He hits the open reads as a passer both going toward the rim and on kickouts, plus very rarely makes terrible decisions resulting in turnovers. I have some real questions on how Gonzaga plans to defend effectively when he plays with Nolan Hickman. Teams that can spread the Zags out with shooting and good guard play could cause them some real issues on that end. Still, Nembhard was a terrific schematic get for the Zags, and he’ll have a great season that likely results in a first-team All-WCC berth.
18. Ajay Mitchell | 6-4 guard | junior | UC Santa Barbara
Mitchell is, for my money, the best mid-major guard in the country. He could play anywhere, but the Belgium native chose to stay in Santa Barbara for another year. And who could blame him? Beyond the great weather, Mitchell was the Big West Player of the Year, averaging 16.3 points and over five assists per game while leading UCSB back to the NCAA Tournament. The guy he reminds me of most stylistically is Jalen Brunson, another smooth lefty who gets by with elite footwork, the ability to decelerate on a dime, and a bevy of touch finishes such as mini-hooks and floaters around the rim. Mitchell shot over 50 percent from the field last year despite making under 30 percent of his 3s. If he wants to take that next step, the shooting will need to come along. It’s, by far, the biggest question NBA evaluators have about him for the next level. But he’s a big creative guard, and I bet he averages something like 20 points and six assists per game for what should be one of the best mid-major teams in the country. He has a new pick-and-roll partner in former five-star recruit Yohan Traore, as well as a new backcourt mate in Creighton transfer Ben Shtolzberg, a well-rounded 6-foot-4 shooter.
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19. Mark Sears | 6-1 guard | senior | Alabama
Alabama had explosive frontcourt players like Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney. It had inconsistent guards like Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Bradley. But the guy who was the ticking metronome that made it all work was Sears. He was about as consistent a player and playmaker as you’ll find in college basketball, defending well and making the right plays all the time. He’s not overly big, and he’s not some incredible shooter. But he’s fearless and willing to take big shots when spacing the floor as well as take possessions as a creator on the ball with his physical driving style and lefty touch on the interior. A second-team All-SEC performer last year, Sears will be called upon even more this season as the returning cog for an Alabama team with several new players, including Aaron Estrada and Latrell Wrightsell in the backcourt and Grant Nelson in the frontcourt. He’ll have to be the leader that brings it all together, and if Alabama is going to be good this season, it’ll be because Sears holds things together.
GO DEEPER
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20. Judah Mintz | 6-3 guard | sophomore | Syracuse
One of the most productive freshmen in college hoops last year, Mintz tested the NBA Draft waters before deciding to return. He averaged 16.3 points and 4.6 assists for a not-particularly-good Syracuse team. However, the tape shows that Mintz has some real juice. Long known as a scorer throughout his high school career, Mintz’s ability to pass and make plays has really improved. His vision was terrific last season, dishing out some creative looks while posting a near 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. On top of it, his ability to finish from the midrange and on the interior was quite strong, displaying a bevy of fun running floaters and touch shots. The key for Mintz is becoming a terrific 3-point shooter. If that happens, it’s much easier to see him become the kind of player who can be an All-American and an NBA Draft pick. But the tools outside of the shooting are there on offense, and he’ll have an awesome running partner in the backcourt with him in former five-star recruit J.J. Starling, who comes to the Orange in Adrian Autry’s first season from Notre Dame.
Five Breakout Guards
Milos Uzan | 6-4 guard | sophomore | Oklahoma
A Big 12 All-Freshman selection last year, Uzan is one of the players I’m most looking forward to seeing play this season. I loved the flashes of creativity we saw from him, especially when he averaged 11.2 points on terrific shooting numbers over his final nine games. He knocked down over 40 percent of his 3s and loves to get to his little floater game, displaying real touch as a scorer. But it’s the creative passing vision that stands out to me. For a bigger guard, Uzan plays patiently in the lane, letting the defense make its decision on where and how it wants to rotate. Then, he’ll fire skip passes all over the court off of a live dribble, keeping his head up and executing them with either hand. I think there’s a real chance he ends up on one of the top two All-Big 12 teams this season. He has all of the skills necessary to be the breakout guard in college hoops this season. And unsurprisingly given that, I also think Oklahoma is a wildly underrated team entering the 2023-24 season. The Big 12 is loaded, but I think the Sooners have every shot to win 20 games and get back to the Big Dance for the first time under Porter Moser.
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Connor Essegian | 6-4 guard | sophomore | Wisconsin
I like to try to find guards who average fewer than 10 points per game for this, but I just wanted to write about Essegian. I wouldn’t be surprised if we look up at the end of the season and see that he has developed into one of the best offensive guards in the country. He averaged 11.7 points per game last year, making the Big Ten All-Freshman team. He has everything he needs to be the next in line as a great Wisconsin guard. He fires away from 3 with confidence, and consistently knocks them down. His shots typically have a high degree of difficulty on the move, and he still hit 3s at a 36 percent mark as a teenager. He plays with almost a cockiness that only the best shooters can have. Half the time on his makes, he knows they’re good and will start backing up and, at times, celebrating before the ball goes through the rim. He has way more to his game as a driver than you first think when watching him, too. He was comfortable attacking closeouts last year and getting into the lane, even if the final finishing product wasn’t always there. C.J. Moore and I were higher on Wisconsin than consensus when we did our top 25 a month ago, ranking the Badgers 15th. The expected, impending Essegian leap is a big reason why. I think he goes for 16-plus this year and becomes an All-Big Ten player.
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Lamont Butler | 6-2 guard | senior | San Diego State
Butler’s breakout moment nationally probably came during the Final Four, where he made a buzzer-beater to defeat Florida Atlantic and send San Diego State to the national championship game. However, Butler only averaged 8.8 points per game last season, and to this point has largely been known best as a truly elite defender. His on-ball prowess is superb, and he did everything to set the tone for one of the three best defenses in college hoops last season. Following the departure of Matt Bradley, the Aztecs will need someone to step up and be the primary option. Darrion Trammell is back, and he should maintain his steady presence at the point. Additionally, Reese Waters comes in after winning Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year at USC, and will be able to take on some additional scoring load. But I’ve always thought Butler had a little more to his game offensively than what he’s always shown. I think he ends up being a double-figure scorer while also being one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, and gets a little more recognition than he did a season ago while being the Aztecs’ clear best player this year.
LAMONT BUTLER WINS IT AT THE BUZZER 😱
THE AZTECS ARE #NATIONALCHAMPIONSHIP BOUND 🔥#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/2sqxu5g05j
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 2, 2023
Braden Smith | 6-0 forward | sophomore | Purdue
The final memories of Smith’s terrific freshman season cloud what was undeniably one of the biggest success stories in college hoops. Even though he had a horror film of a game against Fairleigh Dickinson, going 2 of 10 from the field with seven turnovers, the former borderline top-200 recruit in the country was a genuinely good point guard for a top team in the country as a freshman, scoring 9.7 points and dishing out 4.4 assists while showcasing a true command over exactly what Matt Painter wanted to run offensively. Then on Purdue’s foreign trip — without Zach Edey, who was training with the Canadian national team — Smith seemingly took another step forward, slicing and dicing opponents out of ball screens and making every correct decision when asked. The next leap for Smith will be just becoming entirely comfortable when guards play particularly high pressure against him defensively. I think that comes this year, and we see Smith as something like a 14-point, six-assist per-game guy who knocks down shots and leads what should be one of the 10 best offenses in the country.
Kylan Boswell | 6-2 lead | sophomore | Arizona
Boswell reclassified last year to join Arizona a year early. Unsurprisingly, he had some early growing pains getting acclimated to the speed of the game. But by the time mid-January rolled around, Boswell was extremely impactful for the Wildcats, playing nearly 20 minutes per night and averaging seven points while rarely putting a toe out of line. He doesn’t take bad shots, makes the right decisions, and is tough defensively for a young player. He has good touch, can make the right passing reads when required, and is strong enough to absorb contact on both ends. He wants to play high pressure at the point-of-attack on defense, and make his presence felt on that end. There’s every reason to expect him to break out, running the show for an Arizona team that should end up as a top-three seed in the NCAA Tournament yet again.
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Pac-12 preview: Arizona's the team to beat, USC's the one to watch in last hurrah
Six Freshman to Watch
Isaiah Collier | 6-3 lead | USC
Collier is a fullback playing point guard who also has running back vision. He gets downhill with ease. As soon as he sees a crease in the defense — just the smallest sliver of an opening — he’s going to barrel through and find his way into a paint touch. But there’s a lot more to his game than just power. He’ll immediately enter college basketball as one of the best passers in the country, a visionary young player who knows exactly where all of his teammates are at all times, and someone who can manipulate defenders to get the ball where it needs to go. Everything for Collier is about getting paint touches, and then making his decisions from there. He’ll either stop and pop for a quick little floater, get to the rim with a head of steam, or throw a beautiful kick-out or dump-off pass. The key for Collier in what will likely be his one year in college is improving his shooting. I expect he’ll defend, and with Ellis become one of the best backcourts in the country.
D.J. Wagner | 6-3 guard | Kentucky
Wagner was one of the players in a big group who just missed the top-20 list along with Miami’s Nijel Pack, Colorado’s K.J. Simpson and plenty more. I placed him here instead to open up a spot in the top 20 to highlight veteran players. Sources who have been through Kentucky’s practices and Pro Day have noted that Wagner looks terrific and ready to take on a lead role for the Wildcats with his ability to create shots in a variety of different ways. He’s aggressive and constantly looking for creases and angles to get downhill toward the rim. That mentality also transfers to the defensive end, where Wagner is a tough point-of-attack player who is physical on the ball and slides his feet well to stay in front. The key areas for Wagner this season will be as a passer and decision-maker, plus as a shooter. Wagner’s jumper has been spotty from distance throughout his high school career. The good news is that Kentucky is working on an offense that should produce a bit more spacing than normal to allow Wagner more lanes to drive. But if that falters and Wagner doesn’t have the shot to fall back on, things could get tougher. Still, I’m expecting a big-time season from one of the best guards in the 2023 recruiting class.
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Aden Holloway | 6-2 lead | Auburn
If I had to pick one other freshman guard outside of Wagner and Collier to have a huge season, it would be Holloway. I loved the skills and polish I saw from him at Hoop Summit in Portland in April. He plays at a relaxed, comfortable cadence that allows him to read the court and make good decisions. But more than anything, what drives his play is his ability to score. He’s one of those guys that you have to be ready to contest from the moment he gets within 30 feet due to how fluid his pull-up game is. With K.D. Johnson still around at Auburn, Bruce Pearl should be able to devise some fun off-ball actions to take advantage of the gravity that Holloway brings as a shooter. Holloway’s not the fastest guy, and he’s not the biggest guy. But he knows exactly how to take advantage of how defenders have to play him with his shooting ability. That allows him to be lethal out of ball screens and attacking closeouts, driving and penetrating against defenses and forcing help to get teammates open looks. The downside here will be defensively, and while Holloway is tough and aggressive, he is small and not particularly long. Still, Auburn’s back line of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams should be able to clean up for any mistakes, and Johnson is a tough point-of-attack defender himself. Holloway is about as well positioned for success as any freshman guard in the country, and his particular set of skills should lead Auburn to an improved offense.
Jared McCain | 6-2 scoring guard | Duke
McCain and T.J. Power are consistently the two freshman names I hear about most from scouts who have seen Duke. Among that duo, McCain is the one people are most excited about, and it’s easy to understand why. Likely to play next to a big guard in Tyrese Proctor, McCain’s skillset fits perfectly. He’s an elite shooter off the catch who can knock down shots off of all sorts of fun movement. His release is lightning-quick with very little wasted motion. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t shoot 40 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s this season. Then on top of it, McCain is just the epitome of a high-feel player. He makes quick decisions and almost always seems to make the right one. He plays at his own pace and always seems to be in control of his movements. He can play on the ball and be aggressive in ball screens, especially when he’s not the primary initiator. Defensively, despite not being a wild athlete, he’s a guy who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. With McCain, Proctor, and Jeremy Roach, I think Duke probably has the best top-three guards in its rotation in the country.
Elliot Cadeau | 6-1 lead | freshman | North Carolina
Cadeau is in a fascinating position. I tend to not be a fan of guards who reclassify and head to college early, as I think those years of development in high school are really important for learning how to read the court as a primary playmaker. But Cadeau is the kind of guard who might be able to overcome some of the typical growing pains. First and foremost, he’s older for his original class and is already 19. Second, he’s small, but he is arguably the best pick-and-roll passer in the 2023 recruiting class. His feel for the game is outstanding. He’s different than Kendall Marshall in terms of size and how he attacks out of ball screens, but Cadeau is similar in terms of his feel, vision and unselfishness. The Tar Heels haven’t had a player at this level with this specific skill set, who can run the show as a pure point guard, since Marshall. Where Cadeau could falter early is with his shooting off the bounce and ability to keep defenses honest as a scorer. He’s a little bouncier than he gets credit for as a leaper, but he still could struggle a bit to finish around the rim. And while I think he can knock down catch-and-shoot 3s at a reasonable clip — something that might allow him and R.J. Davis to play together — I don’t know that I trust him quite yet as a pull-up threat. And then defensively, it might be an issue to play Cadeau, Davis and Armando Bacot together, especially with the slower-footed wings North Carolina has on its roster in Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. But Cadeau is extremely talented, and could force the issue for Hubert Davis.
Jackson Shelstad | 6-0 lead | freshman | Oregon
Oregon has a loaded freshman class with Shelstad, Kwame Evans and Mookie Cook. With all due respect to Evans and Cook, I think Shelstad is the one most likely to make a significant impact this year. Dana Altman needs a point guard to step up and run the show. My guess is that early on, senior Keeshawn Barthelemy gets the first shot after playing 26 minutes per night last season. But by the end of the season, Shelstad will probably be the one who gets the ball in the important moments. Every time I’ve seen him, he just looks completely fearless and utterly composed on the court. His handle is extremely polished, allowing him to create shots all over the court out of ball screens. Much like former Oregon guard Payton Pritchard —who went to the same high school as the five-star freshman — Shelstad’s game is more on the scoring side of the equation than the passing and playmaking one. But they’re both extremely efficient in their movements, and Shelstad possesses that similarly terrific touch that made Pritchard an All-American. He also has a penchant for stepping up in the big moments. He’s small, he’s not the best athlete, but Shelstad is going to be an elite college guard because his feel for the game is outstanding, allowing him to make plays no matter the situation.
(Illustration: Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; Photos of Tyler Kolek, Tyrese Proctor and Trey Alexander: John David Mercer, Joseph Maiorana and Jamie Rhodes / USA Today)