One of my favorite things about college basketball is watching players grow up from one season to the next. A year ago, we saw players like Marquette’s Tyler Kolek, Kansas State’s Markquis Nowell, UConn’s Jordan Hawkins, Iowa’s Kris Murray, Florida Atlantic’s Johnell Davis, Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV and Arizona’s Oumar Ballo go from bit roles to All-America or all-league status.
Advertisement
Who’s next this season? I’ve been watching tape and calling around to collect names of the guys who have the opportunity and talent to make the leap. Here are 15 names to know.
Desmond Claude, Xavier sophomore wing
Claude looks the part of a future pro. Good size (6-5), athletic, smooth handle, slasher and a clever finisher around the basket. The only part of his game that was really missing as a freshman was his shot (29.3 percent from 3), and the stroke looks better than the results. It’s not unusual for a freshman to struggle shooting the ball. That could come around. Claude really came on strong at the end of last season. He scored in double figures five times all season and four of those came in the final eight games. Xavier lost its five leading scorers, so the opportunity is there for Claude to become a star. Sean Miller was busy in the transfer portal, adding four transfers including accomplished scorers Dayvion McKnight and Quincy Olivari. But don’t be surprised if Claude emerges as Xavier’s go-to guy and leading scorer.
GO DEEPER
College basketball’s top 20 wings for 2023-24: Bryce Hopkins, Terrence Shannon and more
Tyrese Proctor, Duke sophomore guard
In 2019, a 6-5 guard named Tyrese didn’t average eye-popping numbers as a freshman (6.8 points and 3.6 assists) but turned into a lottery pick as a sophomore when he moved to point guard. That would be Tyrese Haliburton, a player with similar flair and passing ability to Mr. Proctor. The Duke sophomore had a slightly better freshman season statistically than Haliburton (9.4 points and 3.3 assists) and benefitted from moving to point guard midway through the season, while Haliburton didn’t get the keys until his sophomore season. I’ll bet on his trajectory being similar to Haliburton’s. He has lottery-pick potential, and the reasons are similar to what’s made Haliburton such a good pro. It’s the combination of size, vision and joy that he plays with on the floor. How many players can make these plays he made against Tennessee in the NCAA Tournament?
That lefty sidearm pitch to Dariq Whitehead is Haliburton-esque. The confidence to shoot a side-stepping one-footer from 17 while trailing in an NCAA Tournament game as a freshman? Unreal. The handle is as slick as they come, and everything is just so smooth. Kyle Filipowski is getting all the preseason love and rightfully so. But I’ll be watching Duke religiously this season to see what Proctor does. He, too, has All-America potential.
Advertisement
Milos Uzan, Oklahoma sophomore guard
In a league where it’s been really difficult for freshmen to even crack a rotation, Uzan looked like he belonged last season. This year, Oklahoma should put the ball in his hands after losing Grant Sherfield. Uzan had just a 17.4 usage rate, but he’s in line for a much larger role. (Sherfield took 29.4 percent of the shots when he was on the floor.) Uzan can put up good scoring numbers and a high assist rate. He had a high turnover rate as a freshman (26.0), but a lot of those were on good reads where the pass was just a tick late or slightly off target. That number should go way down, because he plays under control and at his pace. He sees the floor well, especially coming off ball screens. He has a really good left hand for a right-handed player and can drive either direction. He’s got a float game and finishes well around the basket. You have to run him off the 3-point line, because he’s really good off the catch (44.1 percent, per Synergy) and has a quick release. Oklahoma will be projected to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12, but the Sooners could surprise some people if Uzan and fellow sophomore Otega Oweh make the leap.
Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue redshirt sophomore big
Matt Painter is considering starting Kaufman-Renn, his backup center a season ago, next to Zach Edey to get more scoring on the floor. Kaufman-Renn has proven himself to be a scorer. He averaged 16.0 points per 40 minutes as a redshirt freshman, and he led the Boilermakers in scoring this summer on their foreign tour at 18 points per game. He’ll have to figure out how to navigate when next to Edey, but he should be able to get some easy buckets from the attention paid to Edey. And Painter can stagger their minutes so Kaufman-Renn should still be able to get about 10 minutes per game without Edey when he is the focal point of the offense. I’d expect Kaufman-Renn to at the very least keep pace with his per-minute production last season and be primed to take over as Purdue’s star once Edey moves on to the next level.
Keshad Johnson, Arizona senior forward
Arizona had three players (Oumar Ballo, Kylan Boswell and Caleb Love) named to the All-Pac 12 preseason teams and a fourth (Pelle Larsson) appearing on the honorable mentions. I’d bet on Johnson making the postseason teams. Johnson averaged just 7.7 points per game a season ago at San Diego State, but he was more valuable than those numbers, serving as a switchable defender and glue guy. He started every game on the team that made the national title game. Arizona needed to get more athletic in the frontcourt, and he fits well alongside Ballo. Johnson has looked more dangerous offensively in an Arizona uniform thus far, thriving this summer on Arizona’s summer tour in Abu Dhabi and Israel. He opened that tour with 24 points and finished with a 14-and-seven game. Tommy Lloyd is one of the best offensive coaches in college hoops, and Johnson should benefit from Arizona’s embrace of pace. His speed will give him advantages as a stretch four. He needs to shoot it better — he’s a career 24.6 percent 3-point shooter — but even if the jumper doesn’t come around, he should simply see a bump in productivity from playing in a more up-tempo style that fits his game.
Trevon Brazile, Arkansas junior big
Brazile was like a fawn during his freshman year at Missouri, all legs and just trying to figure out his way. We saw him turn into a buck in the early stages of last season before he tore his ACL nine games in. I’m breaking my rule here of only allowing players who averaged single digits scoring to get designated in the breakout category — Brazile averaged 11.8 — but since it was an abbreviated season, I’m making an exception. Brazile has a chance to become one of the best stretch bigs in the country. He’s a solid shooter — he went 11 of 29 (37.9 percent) from 3 — and if you try to run him off the line, he slingshots into the lane and then can elevate to a level most of us are unfamiliar with. It’s reminiscent of watching a young Blake Griffin, how high he gets off the floor and the amount of violence he tries to induce on the rim. Arkansas had Ricky Council IV, Anthony Black, Nick Smith Jr. and Jordan Walsh all leave school, so there are a lot of shots available. Arkansas brought in its usual pack of transfers, but no one is as talented on the roster as Brazile. It could take a little while as he eases back from the knee injury, but if the bounce is back, he could emerge as an eventual first-round draft pick. The Razorbacks would be smart to feature him as much as possible as a pick-and-pop five man.
Malik Reneau, Indiana sophomore big
Reneau should inherit the Trayce Jackson-Davis role in the Indiana offense. The sophomore produced as a freshman off the bench, scoring 16.5 points per 40 minutes. He’s capable and skilled enough to step out and make a jumper. It’s become more common for those types of bigs to focus on that part of their game, but Reneau knows his biggest strength is scoring from the blocks and that’s where he spends most of his time. He has one of the sweetest lefty hooks in the game. He shot 61.9 percent on hook shots last season, per Synergy. In two years under Mike Woodson, the Hoosiers have had a low 3-point rate and are committed to throwing it inside. Indiana ranked 14th nationally (and third among high-major conference teams) in post-up possessions per game. Expect more of the same with Reneau as the primary target.
Advertisement
Yohan Traore, UC Santa Barbara sophomore big
Traore is at UC Santa Barbara after spending a year mostly buried on Auburn’s bench last season. Anyone who saw him two years ago on the Adidas circuit knows he has the potential to be a really good college player. That’s where I first laid eyes on Traore, when I attended the 3SSB tourney in Alabama in July 2021. He was the best and most talked-about player that weekend. He’s bounced around a lot since moving to the United States three years ago. It might benefit him to be sort of hidden out West away from the spotlight. He should also benefit from most defenses focusing on the team’s leading scorer, Ajay Mitchell. The Gauchos, who made the NCAA Tournament last season, will have one of the most talented mid-major rosters and will likely be a team high-majors want to avoid in March. Traore is part of that equation, because if he gets confidence, he has the potential to be a star, especially at the Big West level. He should slide into the spot vacated by Miles Norris, who was the team’s second-leading scorer and is on a two-way with the Atlanta Hawks. It’s not often you see a player with Traore’s combination of athleticism, size and skill. Remember big Alan Williams? The former UC Santa Barbara star averaged a double-double his final three years in school, including a 21.3 and 11.5 season. Traore could have a chance to put up those types of numbers if he sticks around Santa Barbara for a few years.
Payton Sandfort, Iowa junior wing
Iowa has produced an All-American in four straight seasons and had a top-five offense in each of those seasons. Fran McCaffery knows how to recruit skill and how to feature a star. Each of the last two seasons, the breakout star for the Hawkeyes has been a Murray brother. Now it’s another brother’s turn. This time we’re betting on Payton Sandfort, continuing the family theme in Iowa City. (Younger brother Pryce will be a freshman for the Hawkeyes.) Payton certainly has the scorer’s mentality. Proof? He air-balled a 3 in an NCAA Tournament game against Auburn, and the dude still attempted 11 more shots (making six). He wasn’t shy last season in a sixth-man role. He attempted 26.9 percent of Iowa’s shots when he was on the floor. He’s 6-7 with a quick, high release, so he has no problem getting shots off. His ability to shake off a slow start — 21.7 percent from 3 over the first 15 games, then 42.7 percent over the final 16 — was also impressive. I’m not sure the All-America run continues, but Sandfort will likely be put in a role to produce big numbers.
Baba Miller, Florida State sophomore forward
The tape on Miller from his freshman year has me a little unsure. As Fran Fraschilla says, he could be a year away from being a year away. Miller averaged just 4.3 points in 15 games. He didn’t join the Seminoles until Jan. 11, and he wasn’t ready for the speed or athleticism at the high-major level. But you could see the potential. He doesn’t move like most 6-11 guys. He’s got a legit handle and covers space quickly with long strides. He excelled this summer winning a gold medal with Spain in the FIBA Under-19 World Cup.
Miller averaged 9.4 points and 6.0 rebounds at the World Cup. Watch those highlights, and you understand why he’s on the NBA’s radar. His shot is a ways off — 28.6 percent from 3 in those games and 25 percent as a freshman at FSU — but he’s capable of making a 3 and at his best attacking a closeout. He should benefit from the opportunity to build his confidence against smaller schools in the nonconference. Opportunity is also there, with FSU’s leading scorer last season, Matthew Cleveland, transferring to Miami. Leonard Hamilton also has a strong track record of identifying long wings and developing them into pros.
Ernest Udeh Jr., TCU sophomore big
Udeh isn’t at Kansas anymore because Bill Self wanted a back-to-the-basket scorer and landed Hunter Dickinson. But Udeh was bubbling with potential and is a good fit for a TCU team that not only plays fast but knows how to execute with tempo. In Udeh, the Frogs have a 6-11 sprinter who is an elite athlete. Udeh has the defensive potential to eventually be the best defender in college hoops. He had a 4.6 percent steal rate, which, had he played enough minutes to qualify, would have ranked 16th nationally last season. No player taller than 6-10 has ever ranked in the top 20 in steals rate at KenPom.com. Udeh is a deflection machine. He forces mistakes with his length and activity. He’s foul prone — 7.7 fouls per 40 minutes — and he’ll need to figure that out in order to play starter minutes, but playing more under control usually comes with age. Offensively, Udeh is not a back-to-the-basket scorer; he’s built to be a roller and rim-runner. He improved as a screener his freshman year and was already an elite lob catcher. KU’s guards knew when he came in the game to put it up near the rim and he’d go get it.
Udeh made a ridiculous 75.6 percent of his 2s and scored 1.56 points per possession as a roller, per Synergy. Out of his 34 made field goals, 25 were dunks. He also had a 48.9 free-throw rate. He constantly puts pressure on the rim. He needs to improve as a free-throw shooter (40.9 percent) and cut down on his turnovers (24.3 TO rate), but he has all the tools to be a very effective two-way center.
Mark Armstrong, Villanova sophomore point guard
Similar to Miller, Armstrong should benefit from a confidence boost after playing in the U-19 World Cup this summer. He averaged 14.5 points through the United States’ first six games. (He played only eight minutes in the third-place game against a Turkey.) Armstrong struggled to figure out the right times to attack in his freshman year at Villanova, but the ability is obvious. He can scoot and is a powerful finisher around the basket. He thrived in the open floor for Team USA.
Villanova's Mark Armstrong has been USA's engine through 4 games at U19s. Activates a different level of burst to create finishing + playmaking opportunities. pic.twitter.com/sLZ5oDTFz9
— Jonathan Wasserman (@NBADraftWass) June 29, 2023
Armstrong has the chance to be a guy who gets to the free-throw line often. He had a low free-throw rate as a freshman but made 33 of 34 freebies in his first six games with the U.S. team this summer. He just needs to make the adjustment to playing in Villanova’s slower tempo. While the Cats play more of a half court game, the spacing is there to be able to pick his spots to slash to the rim. He didn’t shoot the ball well as a freshman or this summer, but his free-throw shooting — 87.5 percent at Nova — gives some hope that eventually his jumper will come around. Villanova has veterans on the wing, with transfers TJ Bamba, Hakim Hart and Tyler Burton joining Justin Moore. If Armstrong can develop chemistry with that group and figure out his spots, the Wildcats have a chance to get back to winning at Jay Wright levels. Kyle Neptune should spend the early season trying to pump Armstrong full of confidence, because their ceiling is a lot higher if Armstrong wins that starting PG job.
Advertisement
Isaac McKneely, Virginia sophomore guard
Ryan Dunn would have also been a worthy selection here from Virginia’s roster. He’s getting some NBA mock draft buzz. Reece Beekman could also be a worthy candidate, but I’m going with McKneely, who has the game to become Virginia’s go-to scorer and continue Tony Bennett’s run of identifying and developing productive big guards. McKneely is a guy I fell in love with watching the Adidas circuit, and he showed enough as a freshman to keep the hope alive that he’ll become a star. He was a solid knockdown shooter (39.2 percent from 3) as a freshman, and with an increased role, he should show off more of his ability to slash. But what’s most important in Bennett’s system is the ability to read screens and then fly off and make shots. Among his best shooting guards/wings to come through Virginia— a list that includes Joe Harris, Malcolm Brogdon, Justin Anderson, Devon Hall and Kyle Guy — McKneely was the most efficient among that group during their freshman seasons coming off screens, per Synergy’s data. His freshman averages also look a lot like Brogdon’s, who went from averaging 6.7 points as a freshman (same as McKneely) to 12.7 as a sophomore. Expect a similar bump for McKneely.
Reese Waters, San Diego State junior wing
Brian Dutcher has done well with transfers and has an especially good track record pulling a perimeter scorer from the Pac-12 and turning that man into a star Aztec. Both Malachi Flynn and Matt Bradley went from bad Pac-12 teams to San Diego State, and the decision turned out to be pretty smart. Waters is the next one; only differences are he’s coming from an NCAA Tournament team where he wasn’t the go-to guy. He was the Pac-12’s Sixth man of the Year, and he should see his minutes and usage go up. A lot of shots are available with Bradley moving on. Dutcher allowed Bradley to operate in the mid-range, and that’s an area where Waters is strong. Bradley thrived in isolation, and we’ll see if Waters can be that, but the potential is there. He’s comfortable shooting off the bounce, and where Waters is superior to Bradley is finishing around the bucket. His size — he’s 6-5 — and bounce is better than Bradley, who got by with strength and footwork. Waters also has a smooth jump shot that’s been streaky, but the mechanics and free-throw shooting history (80.9 percent for his career) suggest he can be an efficient shooter. He shot 46 percent from 3 as a sophomore and then that dropped to 29.6 percent last season. He’s probably somewhere in between, but I’d say he’s closer to the 46 mark than 29.6.
Wooga Poplar, Miami junior guard
Nijel Pack will likely inherit the starring role from Isaiah Wong, but Jim Larrañaga’s offense has supported multiple perimeter stars through the years. Last season it was the trio of Wong, Jordan Miller and Pack. Miller, the second-leading scorer last season who graduated, is an example of a guy who was a low-usage, high-efficiency player two seasons ago and then was able to stay efficient when his usage went up. That’s the path for Poplar, who had a 112 offensive rating and just a 17.4 usage rate on last season’s Final Four team. Poplar has already shown he can make a drastic improvement, going from barely cracking the rotation as a freshman (2.3 points in 8.6 minutes per game and a 21.4 3-point percentage) to starting 36 games, averaging 8.4 points and shooting 37.5 percent from 3. The mechanics on his jumper are a little funky, but it goes in an a good rate and he’s always balanced. Poplar is also a really good athlete and should get more opportunities to score off the bounce. Wong also had a funky shot, but that dude produced. It’s possible Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland becomes the Robin to Pack’s Batman, but I’m betting on Poplar to be that guy.
(Top photo of Desmond Claude: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)