Free agency, rotation options and more: 10 takeaways from the Twins’ season-ending Q&A

Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli covered a wide range of topics in Friday’s season-ending media session, setting the stage for what figures to be a very interesting offseason for a team coming off its third division title in five years and most successful playoff appearance since 2002.

Dan Hayes wrote about the biggest news to come from their hour-long Q&A, which is that Byron Buxton (knee) and Alex Kirilloff (shoulder) are scheduled for surgeries on injuries that limited them for much of the season. But there were plenty of other tidbits from Falvey and Baldelli that are also worth parsing.

Here are 10 takeaways that struck me as especially noteworthy.

Sonny Gray’s free agency

Sonny Gray will be a first-time free agent following an All-Star season in which he threw his most innings (184) since 2015 and ranked second in the American League with a 2.79 ERA. He’ll be 34 years old next month, limiting the length of his next contract, but Gray seems likely to receive offers of three or four years at something close to double this season’s $12.5 million salary.

Gray has made it clear that he’d like to remain in Minnesota, but he also knows this is his best and perhaps last shot to test the open market, a right he’s earned after 11 years in the majors. Baldelli was very matter-of-fact Friday when asked about re-signing Gray, saying: “He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two years. Of course we would love to have him back.”

Falvey was predictably more measured, saying several times that he plans to stay in contact with Gray’s agent and “that process needs to play out.” He also noted that Gray has spoken to him about how much he enjoyed playing in Minnesota. “He talked a lot about being here and how much he liked it here, how much he valued this culture, playing for (Baldelli), teammates, coaches, everybody.”

Shortly after the World Series, the Twins will tender Gray the one-year, $20 million qualifying offer, which he’ll likely reject. They can still negotiate with him once that happens, but if he signs elsewhere, they’ll receive a first-round draft pick as compensation, essentially recouping the value of the 2021 first-round pick (Chase Petty) they traded to the Cincinnati Reds to acquire him.

What a massive pickoff by the @Twins! pic.twitter.com/i4g9ULQmjx

— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2023

Other rotation options

Gray is the Twins’ biggest free agent, but rotation-mate Kenta Maeda is also headed to the open market after four seasons in Minnesota. Maeda is two years older than Gray and coming off an uneven first season back from Tommy John surgery, posting a 4.23 ERA in 104 innings. He won’t get the qualifying offer, but the Twins could have interest in re-signing Maeda to a short-term deal.

Whether it’s re-signing Gray and Maeda, or looking outside the organization, Falvey indicated the Twins will likely be pursuing rotation help this offseason. “You start the conversations with the clubs involved, what trade fits might make sense,” Falvey said. “Then you have those same conversations, at a parallel time, with free agents. We’ll see where the process takes us.”

Even without Gray and Maeda, the Twins have decent rotation depth in place with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland, plus Triple-A prospect David Festa. “That’s a good group to start with,” Falvey said. “But it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better.”

Louie Varland’s future role

When the Twins called up Varland in early September and shifted him to the bullpen in preparation for the playoffs, he expressed a desire to remain a starter in 2024 and beyond. Falvey specifically named Varland when talking about next year’s rotation options, but it’s also clear the Twins were blown away by Varland throwing 97-100 mph, along with a swing-and-miss cutter, out of the bullpen.

“I think we have to evaluate how the whole (pitching) group shakes out,” Falvey said. “Louie has talked about wanting to start, and we’ve talked about that. He adapted really well in that (relief) role and has the types of weapons that could be really interesting in that role, too. I don’t think today is the day to make that final call.”

Including the playoffs, Varland made nine relief appearances with a 1.42 ERA and 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 2/3 innings. He has a 4.83 ERA in 15 career starts for the Twins.

“What he showed out of the bullpen was special,” Baldelli said. “It’s hard to look away from that and not at least think about that going forward. I think he has the ability to be an elite reliever. I don’t want to make any bold statements. I will talk to him soon.”

Four strikeouts in two scoreless innings for Louie Varland, who is consistently working at 97-100 mph out of the pic.twitter.com/wxziEvxf9y

— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 16, 2023

Royce Lewis’ future position

Royce Lewis’ bat was the big story, as the 24-year-old rookie hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 homers in 58 games and then went deep four more times in six playoff games, but he also looked comfortable in his first extended action at third base. Lewis has been a shortstop for most of his career and also has the tools to play center field, but it sounds like he’ll be staying at the hot corner in 2024.

“Right now, I would foresee Royce playing third for us going into next spring,” Baldelli said. “I would anticipate Carlos (Correa) being at shortstop and Royce being at third.”

Brooks Lee’s future position

It likely won’t be a factor until at least the middle of next season, but sticking with Lewis at third base would also affect 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee, a shortstop prospect who began to get some reps at third base this season. Many evaluators feel Lee profiles best as a third baseman long term, so the Twins will have some tough calls to make. It’s a good problem to have, of course.

“One thing we’ve been able to do pretty well with our group is keep everybody ready for anything that might come their way,” Baldelli said. “We have a lot of infielders in our group right now who started at one spot and have moved to a different spot. With many of them, it could happen again.”

Lee seemingly has the tools to be a quality second baseman, and moving even further down the defensive spectrum to first base is always an option if the 22-year-old becomes more of a bat-driven player. Center field is unlikely to be a fit for Lee given his middling speed. Another infield prospect, Austin Martin, has a skill set far better suited for center field if needed.

Center field plan

Regardless of how Buxton recovers from his latest knee surgery, the Twins will need another starting-caliber center fielder. Last winter they traded for Michael A. Taylor as Buxton insurance and he ended up making 110 starts, playing elite defense and batting .220/.278/.442 with 21 homers. Taylor is a free agent, so they’ll need to re-sign the 32-year-old or find a similarly reliable replacement.

Given his age and $4.5 million salary this season, Taylor should be relatively inexpensive to retain. Falvey mentioned Martin as a potential in-house option. And both Falvey and Baldelli were full of praise for Willi Castro after he went from being a minor-league signing to one of the Twins’ most valuable players, including 29 starts in center field. He’s under team control through 2025.

“Willi went out there and played, I thought, a really good center field for a guy who hadn’t played it a lot,” Falvey said.

Center field is very much a position in flux for the Twins, so expect them to be active there in the trade and free-agent markets. They’d love for Buxton to re-emerge as a realistic option, even on a semi-regular basis, but they’re smartly no longer counting on it.

Catcher conundrum

Upgrading the catcher spot was a priority for the Twins last offseason and they signed free agent Christian Vázquez to a three-year, $30 million deal to displace Ryan Jeffers as the starter. But then Vázquez never got on track offensively and Jeffers had a breakout year, improving his throwing and batting .276/.369/.490 with 14 homers in 96 games to lead all MLB catchers in OPS.

They essentially alternated starts behind the plate in the second half, but Jeffers started all six playoff games. No team wants to pay $10 million to a backup, but the Twins are big believers in the importance of catcher depth and prefer to use a tandem approach that can keep both players from wearing down physically. In other words, don’t assume they’ll push to trade Vázquez.

“Having a catching team works best,” Baldelli said. “You’re going to get the most out of your guys when they’re both actively out there on a regular basis. They’re both going to play, they’re both going to be catching all of our pitchers. I think the catching side of things worked out very well for us this year and I look forward to working in a similar fashion with those two going forward.”

If the Twins were to trade Vázquez, which would most likely require eating at least some of the $20 million remaining on his contract, they have a potential replacement in Triple-A prospect Jair Camargo, a strong-armed 24-year-old with 20-homer power. Camargo hit .259/.323/.503 in 90 games for St. Paul, including .288/.344/.569 in 74 games after a brutal April.

“Camargo has had a really nice year down in Triple A,” Falvey said. “Obviously we’ll have some conversations about him going forward, too.”

Ry is that guy. 😱 pic.twitter.com/1NSevRlOYz

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) August 25, 2023

Television, revenue and payroll

Every year around this time, Falvey is asked about the next season’s payroll. And every year around this time, he avoids sharing specifics, saying he’s yet to discuss the situation fully with ownership. He had another reason to sidestep that topic this time around because the Twins are one of several teams facing an uncertain local television situation due to the Bally Sports bankruptcy saga.

“That’s a reality of our offseason,” Falvey said. “It’s not just for us. It’s for other clubs, too. That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate. It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue. That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody. That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

Bally Sports North reportedly paid $55 million per season to broadcast Twins games, but that contract has ended and they are TV free agents. However, given the rapidly changing world of cable, satellite and streaming, and the lack of an obvious local outlet interested in showing 100-plus Twins games per season, securing another TV revenue stream worth $55 million could prove difficult.

This season’s $159 million payroll was the highest in Twins history and ranked 17th out of 30 teams.

Next season’s coaching staff

Falvey and Baldelli both indicated they expect the Twins’ entire coaching staff to return next season, barring another team poaching someone from their staff for a higher-ranking position. For instance, bench coach Jayce Tingler could be a candidate for various manager openings around the league.

“I think we have a great group,” Baldelli said.

Opening Day starter

Every year during spring training, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune repeatedly asks Baldelli if he’s decided on the Opening Day starter, to the point that it’s become a running joke that begins the first day of camp as Baldelli tries to find increasingly evasive ways to avoid answering. But now Pablo López has ruined the bit by being too damn good.

“Do you have an Opening Day starter?” was how Miller broke the ice Friday in the question-asking leadoff spot. And for once, he actually got an answer.

“Yes we do, Phil,” Baldelli dead-panned. “Yes we do.”

(Top photo of Royce Lewis and Derek Falvey: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)