The 2020 NHL draft class is the third one we’re looking back at this week. It’s a class that saw their draft seasons abruptly end due to COVID-19. Time has significantly altered the way we look at this group. A few years later, the No. 1 and 2 picks are not in the current top five and a third-round pick has skyrocketed right to the top. To be eligible for this exercise, players had to have actually been selected in the draft class mentioned, regardless of their first year of eligibility.
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Tier 1: Elite NHL Player
1. Tim Stützle, C (Senators, No. 3)
The best player in the 2020 class — by a country mile, frankly — is German forward Tim Stützle, one of the best young players in the NHL currently. He ticks every box. He’s a dynamic skater with dynamic offensive skills. He creates a ton of offense with pace, competes hard and can both make and finish difficult plays. He is a star you can build around.
Tier 2: Bubble NHL All-Star and Top of the Lineup Player
2. Jake Sanderson, D (Senators, No. 5)
3. Anton Lundell, C (Panthers, No. 12)
4. Alexander Nikishin, D (Hurricanes, No. 69)
Following Stützle are three well-rounded players at premium positions who have shown very well versus pros already. Jake Sanderson is an outstanding skater who projects as a premier shutdown defender in the NHL with solid secondary offense. Anton Lundell doesn’t have great feet, but he’s super smart and competitive and was a contributor to Florida’s Stanley Cup Final run this past spring. Alexander Nikishin is the one who will spark some debate. I realize he has played zero NHL games, but if he played in the NHL tomorrow, I think he would change a lineup. He is a big, mobile, highly physical defenseman who makes a lot of offensive plays. He has a lot of potential and has been a star in the KHL already.
Tier 3: Top of the Lineup Player
5. Lucas Raymond, LW (Red Wings, No. 4)
6. Jack Quinn, RW (Sabres, No. 8)
7. Dawson Mercer, C (Devils, No. 18)
8. Alexis Lafrenière, LW (Rangers, No. 1)
9. Quinton Byfield, C (Kings, No. 2)
10. Jamie Drysdale, D (Ducks, No. 6)
11. Seth Jarvis, RW (Hurricanes, No. 13)
In Tier 3, we have a large group of forwards who have mostly established themselves as NHL regulars. Dawson Mercer is one of the bigger risers in this group. He isn’t the flashiest player in the world, but he competes very hard and has shown very good offensive touch and all-around play as a pro despite average size and footspeed. The No. 1 and 2 picks, Alexis Lafrenière and Quinton Byfield, show up at 8 and 9 respectively. This reflects that I still think they are very good players. Lafrenière has a ton of skill, while Byfield is a huge forward who skates very well. The flaws in the former’s skating and consistency and the latter’s instincts and creativity have kept them from the upper echelon of this draft class, though.
Tier 4: Bubble Top and Middle of the Lineup Player/Quality Starting Goaltender
12. Kaiden Guhle, D (Canadiens, No. 16)
13. Cole Perfetti, C (Jets, No. 10)
14. Lukas Reichel, LW (Blackhawks, No. 17)
15. Marco Rossi, C (Wild, No. 9)
16. Shakir Mukhamadullin, D (Devils, No. 20)
17. Yaroslav Askarov, G (Predators, No. 11)
18. John-Jason Peterka, LW (Sabres, No. 34)
19. Braden Schneider, D (Rangers, No. 19)
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Kaiden Guhle, Cole Perfetti and Lukas Reichel have shown very well as pros and there are reasonable arguments to get them into Tier 3. The biggest riser, however, is JJ Peterka, a second-round pick in this draft. Peterka looked good in the NHL last season and, despite his size, has shown the speed and skill to have success versus men over the last few years alone. He also has a great wrist shot.
Tier 5: Middle of the Lineup Player/Starting Goaltender
20. Dylan Holloway, LW (Oilers, No. 14)
21. Ridly Greig, C (Senators, No. 28)
22. Connor Zary, C (Flames, No. 24)
23. William Wallinder, D (Red Wings, No. 32)
24. Brock Faber, D (Kings, No. 45)
25. Marat Khusnutdinov, C (Wild, No. 37)
26. Luke Evangelista, RW (Predators, No. 42)
27. Alexander Holtz, RW (Devils, No. 7)
28. Justin Barron, D (Avalanche, No. 25)
29. Will Cuylle, LW (Rangers, No. 60)
30. Jake Neighbours, LW (Blues, No. 26)
31. Yegor Chinakhov, RW (Blue Jackets, No. 21)
32. Thomas Bordeleau, C (Sharks, No. 38)
33. Wyatt Kaiser, D (Blackhawks, No. 81)
34. Tyler Kleven, D (Senators, No. 44)
35. Sean Farrell, LW (Canadiens, No. 124)
36. Devon Levi, G (Panthers, No. 212)
37. Mavrik Bourque, C (Stars, No. 30)
The most significant upward movers in this tier are Sean Farrell and Devon Levi, who were taken late in the draft. Both are undersized players who don’t have elite physical traits. Farrell and Levi both move well though. Farrell is a very good all-around forward, and Levi is a super smart goaltender. How their games translate to the NHL is TBD but they’ve shown over the last few years they have very good chances to make it.
The most notable downwards-trending player is Alexander Holtz who was picked in the top ten. He is still a very strong prospect due to his excellent skill and shot. However, he’s yet to crack the NHL full-time in part due to various risk factors in his game in terms of his lack of speed and inconsistent compete.
Tier 6: Projected to Play NHL Games
38. Jeremie Poirier, D (Flames, No. 72)
39. Tyson Foerster, RW (Flyers, No. 23)
40. Samuel Knazko, D (Blue Jackets, No. 78)
41. Nils Aman, C (Avalanche, No. 167)
42. Mason Lohrei, D (Bruins, No. 58)
43. Hendrix Lapierre, C (Capitals, No. 22)
44. Lukas Cormier, D (Golden Knights, No. 68)
45. Jan Mysak, C (Canadiens, No. 48)
46. William Dufour, RW (Islanders, No. 152)
47. Brendan Brisson, LW (Golden Knights, No. 29)
48. Noel Gunler, RW (Hurricanes, No. 41)
49. Ronan Seeley, D (Hurricanes, No. 208)
50. Danil Gushchin, RW (Sharks, No. 76)
51. Jack Finley, C (Lightning, No. 57)
52. Jean-Luc Foudy, C (Avalanche, No. 75)
53. Egor Sokolov, RW (Senators, No. 61)
54. Isaak Phillips, D (Blackhawks, No. 141)
55. Alex Laferriere, RW (Kings, No. 83)
56. Emil Heineman, LW (Panthers, No. 43)
57. Roby Jarventie, LW (Senators, No. 33)
58. Hugo Ollas, G (Rangers, No. 197)
59. Brandon Coe, RW (Sharks, No. 98)
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Tier 7: Has a Chance to Play NHL Games
60. Emil Andrae, D
61. Tristen Robins, C (Sharks, No. 56)
62. Helge Grans, D (Kings, No. 35)
63. Cross Hanas, LW (Red Wings, No. 55)
64. Daniel Torgersson, LW (Jets, No. 40)
65. Dylan Peterson, RW (Blues, No. 86)
66. Ian Moore, D (Ducks, No. 67)
67. Noah Beck, D (Blues, No. 194)
68. Leo Loof, D (Blues, No. 88)
69. Mikael Pyyhtia, LW (Blue Jackets, No. 114)
70. Alex Jefferies, LW (Islanders, No. 121)
71. Elliot Desnoyers, LW (Flyers, No. 135)
72. Jacob Truscott, D (Canucks, No. 144)
73. Jack Thompson, D (Lightning, No. 93)
74. Luke Prokop, D (Predators, No. 73)
75. Matt Kessel, D (Blues, No. 150)
76. Martin Chromiak, RW (Kings, No. 128)
77. Ryan Tverberg, RW (Maple Leafs, No. 213)
78. Aatu Jamsen, LW (Kings, No. 190)
79. Jackson Hallum, LW (Golden Knights, No. 91)
80. Ryder Rolston, RW (Avalanche, No. 139)
81. Leevi Merilainen, G (Senators, No. 71)
82. Vasily Ponomarev, C (Hurricanes, No. 53)
83. Roni Hirvonen, C
84. Rory Kerins, C (Flames, No. 174)
85. Daemon Hunt, D (Wild, No. 65)
86. Nico Daws, G (Devils, No. 84)
87. Calle Clang, G (Penguins, No. 77)
88. Drew Commesso, G (Blackhawks, No. 46)
89. Jakub Dobes, G (Canadiens, No. 136)
90. Maksim Berezkin, LW (Oilers, No. 138)
91. Maxim Groshev, RW (Lightning, No. 85)
92. Gage Goncalves, LW (Lightning, No. 62)
93. Justin Sourdif, RW (Panthers, No. 87)
94. Mike Benning, D (Panthers, No. 95)
95. Alex Young, C (Sharks, No. 196)
96. Joel Blomqvist, G (Penguins, No. 52)
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos of Tim Stützle, Anton Lundell and Alexander Nikishin: Andrea Cardin, Maddie Meyer, Maksim Konstantinov / SOPA Images / Getty Images)