Sign up for the Until Saturday newsletter | Jayna Bardahl and The Athletic’s college football staff deliver expert analysis on the biggest CFB stories five days per week. Get it sent to your inbox.
The Athletic has live coverage of Oregon vs. Washington in Week 7 college football action
I had a dismal 2-7 week against the spread to drop me to two games under .500 for the season. The good: picking UCLA to handle Washington State. The bad: picking Notre Dame to defeat Louisville. The ugly: picking Texas to beat Oklahoma by double-digits. Here are this week’s guesses.
Advertisement
Check out Stewart Mandel’s picks.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise listed.)
Indiana at No. 2 Michigan (-33.5), Noon (Fox)
The Hoosiers offense has been woeful, and now they’ll visit a Michigan squad that hasn’t allowed more than 10 points in a game this season.
Michigan 52, Indiana 6
The Pick: Michigan -33.5
No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue, Noon (Peacock)
Purdue is very banged up on offense and Ohio State should be too much on defense for the Boilers to get any traction. The Buckeyes also should be able to get their run game going against a Purdue group that has been run over in each of the past four games.
Ohio State 38, Purdue 13
The Pick: Ohio State -19.5
Syracuse (-17.5) at Florida State, Noon (ABC)
Dino Babers’ program hits the road to face Florida State having dropped two in a row by sizable margins. We expect it to get worse at FSU, which is averaging over 42 points per game.
Florida State 44, Syracuse 20
The Pick: Florida State -17.5
No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington (-3), 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Washington has dropped seven of the past eight meetings in this series in Seattle but did beat the Ducks at Autzen last season. And the hunch here is the Huskies will find a way to sneak out with a W even though I feel like Oregon might be the more complete team right now. For most of his career, Bo Nix has been much, much sharper at home than on the road (20 of his 24 career INTs have come away from home), and a late turnover in a very hostile environment might be the thing that separates these two explosive offenses.
Washington 38, Oregon 37
The Pick: Oregon +3
Texas A&M at No. 19 Tennessee (-3.5), 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Vols passing attack isn’t as crisp as it was last year with Hendon Hooker, but it’s good enough to exploit a vulnerable A&M pass defense that has been victimized in both of the Aggies’ defeats. A&M also did not handle the road environment well in its last time away from home, and Tennessee will be much more hostile than Miami was.
Advertisement
Tennessee 27, Texas A&M 20
The Pick: Tennessee -3.5
Auburn at No. 22 LSU (-11.5), 7 p.m. (ESPN)
It’s no secret that LSU’s pass defense is really lacking, but this is not a lethal Auburn aerial attack. Maybe the bye week will give Auburn some time to get refocused, but the hunch here is that Jayden Daniels and a dangerous group of receivers will be too much for Hugh Freeze’s team to keep up with.
LSU 38, Auburn 21
The Pick: LSU -11.5
No. 25 Miami at No. 12 North Carolina (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
How does Miami respond after last week’s debacle against Georgia Tech? I expect the Canes to rally but think Drake Maye, who will be by far the best quarterback Miami has faced this season, will carry the Heels to a late win.
North Carolina 28, Miami 27
The Pick: Miami +3.5
UCLA at No. 15 Oregon State (-3.5), 8 p.m. (Fox)
DJ Uiagalelei is coming off a terrific game, having thrown five TDs vs. Cal, but the Bruins have the No. 1 defense in the country and their D-line is playing exceptionally well. Expect UCLA to force some mistakes from the big QB and the Bruins run game to take enough heat off of freshman QB Dante Moore to keep things moving for Chip Kelly’s squad. Oregon State’s defense allowed 241 yards on the ground (on a 7.3-yard average) against Cal last week.
UCLA 23, Oregon State 20
The Pick: UCLA +3.5
Feldman’s upset special
No. 10 USC at No. 21 Notre Dame (-3), 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
Marcus Freeman’s team feels like it’s running on fumes after having emotional roller coaster rides vs. Ohio State and Duke and then getting mauled at Louisville. Arch-rival USC has not been impressive the past three times out, but right now I have more confidence in Caleb Williams leading his team to a late win than Sam Hartman. But if the conditions are sloppy, that feels like it plays into ND’s hands.
USC 34, Notre Dame 30
The Pick: USC +3
(Photo of Drake Maye: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)