Assessing Harry Maguire’s ‘ridiculously high’ Man Utd win percentage claim

Stripped of the club captaincy and relegated to fifth choice in the centre-back hierarchy, Harry Maguire looked on the verge of leaving Manchester United this summer.

A £30million ($36.6m) bid from West Ham looked set to end his career at Old Trafford after four seasons, only for manager Erik ten Hag and the club’s senior leadership team to perform an about-face and keep the 30-year-old.

An injury crisis and wider club dysfunction have since seen Maguire return to the starting XI, and a last-minute assist in the 2-1 victory over Brentford in United’s final match before this international break has given rise to a confident selection of quotes from the defender while on England duty.

“It’s not my decision whether I start the next game or not. I’m unsure on that,” Maguire said when asked about his lack of club starts this season. (Two of his four United appearances have been off the bench.)

“I’m sure in a couple of weeks I’ll go back and find out. If you look back on my last 15 to 20 starts for club and country, I would be happy to sit here and say I’m really happy with my performances.

“ My record under this manager speaks for itself. I haven’t started as many games as I like (for United) but my win percentage when I’ve played is ridiculously high. Of course, there are times when I could do more and times when I could improve and help the team.”

Maguire on England duty this week (Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)

Since Ten Hag’s arrival at United in the summer of 2022, Maguire’s win percentage, when compared to other central defenders at the club, is better than his colleagues.

(* One of Luke Shaw’s victories at centre-back came via a penalty shootout against Brighton in an FA Cup semi-final. Opta stats would list such a result as a draw.)

Look at Maguire’s starts, rather than total appearances, and you can see why he would be “really happy” with his performances in comparison to the club’s other true centre-backs.

Things get more complicated when you look into his opponents when starting for United since Ten Hag took over.

With the manager preferring a centre-back partnership of Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane for the bigger games, and then going to Victor Lindelof, or even Shaw as an emergency left centre-back, Maguire often starts games United are already expected to win.

When he does play for Ten Hag, you can often spot Maguire thinking about what to do next. Which is better than not thinking, though not as good as not having to think. As part of a United team who can dominate possession against lower-ranked opponents, Maguire can look closer to the 2019-20 and pre-ankle injury 2020-21 version of himself.

And when Ten Hag does start his former club captain, it tends to be in games where the Yorkshireman can avoid his true weakness — being exposed one-on-one against speedy opponents.

Maguire has spent a lot of time on the bench under Ten Hag (Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)

If Maguire is to continue his club career at United, he is unlikely to be trusted to play against the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and other members of the ‘Big Six’. His positive win percentage does not paint a full picture of a defender low on confidence and reluctantly used by his manager.

Maguire’s poor disciplinary record under Ten Hag (nine yellow cards last season) is sign enough that he has had difficulty acclimatising to the Dutchman’s tactical demands. He might never be a correct fit for a team with ambitions of playing with a high defensive line.

Things are exacerbated further by Ten Hag’s reluctance to play Maguire in his favoured position at left centre-back.

Last season, the United manager was asked about his continued decision to play Maguire at right centre-back, preferring Shaw and Lindelof on the left. He said: “Not this season. The angles are not good for Harry if he is playing on the left side, it’s difficult for him also defending in wide areas on his left foot, but I think he is more capable on the right.

“Victor is very good, he can use both feet and I think he also did a brilliant job in the rest of defence and the defensive transitions. That’s why we prefer to do it with them in this way.”

Ten Hag has also made clear that Maguire has been through extra training intended to help him adapt to playing on the right, offering him “video (footage) of how to outplay opponents and how he can have more impact in possession in building up” during sessions.

Maguire has been afforded only one start this season in his preferred position — in the Carabao Cup third-round win over a rotated Crystal Palace. That night saw his best performance of the season, but it was telling that his next appearances — in a defeat to a stronger Palace side in the league and in the victory against Brentford — came with him playing on the right of central defence again.

“I have belief in my ability and what I have done in my career and, as every player should, every player who is on the bench should believe they should be starting, otherwise they wouldn’t be playing at a high level,” added Maguire during this international break. “I am no different.

“It has been tough. I want to play games, I want to feel important to the club and to the rest of the team. I haven’t been playing anywhere near as much as I would like. That is the bottom line of it and I just have to make sure I am ready to take the opportunities when they come along.”

Still integral to Gareth Southgate’s England, Maguire remains in a strange state of limbo for United. Not quite superfluous to requirements, but unable to convince his manager to play him in his best position for the biggest games.

It’s a situation that may bolster his win percentage figures, but not his job satisfaction.

(Top photo: Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images)