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Read Stewart Mandel’s latest college football picks against the spread.
Last week I finally jumped back on the right side of .500, despite an awful bad beat in LSU-Missouri. And I improved to 5-1 in nailing my outright Upset Specials.
And what a great set of games we have this week.
Last week: 6-5 against the spread. Season: 30-35-1.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise listed.)
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Tulane (-4.5) at Memphis, Friday, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Tulane, last year’s Cotton Bowl champ, fell out of the rankings and off the radar following its Week 2 loss to Ole Miss, but the Green Wave played that game without injured QB Michael Pratt. He’s back, and Tulane has won its last three games handily. Memphis has the same 4-1 record but has been largely eking out victories.
Tulane 30, Memphis 24
The pick: Tulane -4.5
No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington (-3), 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
I’ve begun to believe that Oregon is the Pac-12’s most complete team. Both star QBs are prolific, but the Ducks also lead the country at 7.0 yards per rush attempt; Washington is averaging 4.7 yards per rush. Also, Oregon’s defense made a statement with its complete domination of Colorado, though the Huskies will have much better pass protection.
Oregon 34, Washington 30
The pick: Oregon +3
Texas A&M at No. 19 Tennessee (-3.5), 3:30 p.m. (CBS)
Through six games, it’s apparent that A&M’s defense is dominant against the run (2.6 yards per carry) and porous against the pass (7.5 yards per attempt). That’s not ideal for the Vols, which have thrived in the running game this season (6.2 yards per carry, No. 2 nationally). But quarterback Joe Milton can make enough plays through the air to win what might be a low-scoring affair.
Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 20
The pick: Tennessee -3.5
Iowa at Wisconsin (-10), 4 p.m. (Fox)
Welcome to the Big Ten West championship game. It speaks to just how woeful Iowa’s 127th-ranked offense is that it’s a 10-point underdog against a Wisconsin team that has not exactly been moving the ball at will (65th nationally in yards per play). As always, the Hawkeyes’ best hope is to generate a pick six here, a blocked punt there.
Wisconsin 10, Iowa 3
The pick: Iowa +10
Auburn at No. 22 LSU (-11.5), 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Auburn is catching LSU at a good time — it’s coming off an idle week, while LSU is coming off consecutive shootouts against Ole Miss and Missouri. But even against LSU’s horrendous defense, it’s hard to see how Auburn, averaging just 15.0 points in league play, is going to keep pace with Jayden Daniels, Logan Diggs and Malik Nabers.
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LSU 41, Auburn 27
The pick: LSU -11.5
Wyoming at Air Force (-10.5), 7 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
It’s a showdown between the top two teams in the Mountain West to this point, and while 5-1 Wyoming has beaten both Texas Tech and Fresno State, 5-0 Air Force is statistically a much better team. The Falcons’ defense is allowing just 4.27 yards per play, No. 6 nationally and lower than even Georgia, Michigan and Alabama.
Air Force 21, Wyoming 10
The pick: Air Force -10.5
Missouri at No. 24 Kentucky (-2.5), 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
Kentucky was never going to beat Georgia, but its defense absolutely imploded, allowing Carson Beck to throw for a season-high 389 yards and four touchdowns. That’s not a great sign going up against Brady Cook, Luther Burden and the rest of the Tigers’ explosive offense. Unless running back Ray Davis is planning to go off for 280 yards again.
Missouri 35, Kentucky 28
The pick: Missouri +2.5
No. 10 USC at No. 21 Notre Dame (-3), 7:30 p.m. (NBC)
On the one hand, I’m certain defensively challenged USC is going to combust at some point. But I’m also concerned Notre Dame may be worn down after three consecutive tough primetime games (Ohio State, Duke and Louisville). Mostly, I don’t believe Sam Hartman and the Irish receivers can keep pace with Caleb Williams and company.
USC 38, Notre Dame 34
The pick: USC +3
No. 25 Miami at No. 12 North Carolina (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Thanks to the infamous no-kneel, nobody cares that Miami is in fact a much better team in Year 2 under Mario Cristobal. (But it should have beaten Georgia Tech.) Tyler Van Dyke remains the nation’s sixth-rated passer even after throwing three picks last week. But UNC has Drake Maye, Omarion Hampton and a better-than-expected defense.
North Carolina 34, Miami 24
The pick: North Carolina -3.5
UCLA at No. 15 Oregon State (-3.5), 8 p.m. (Fox)
UCLA’s defense is No. 1 in yards per play allowed (3.7) and No. 3 in Stop Rate (84.6 percent). That makes me a tad nervous for Beavers quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who, as we know, can be a bit all over the map. But he’s far more experienced than Bruins freshman QB Dante Moore, who struggled mightily at Utah in his first Pac-12 road start.
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Oregon State 20, UCLA 15
The pick: Oregon State -3.5
This week’s Upset Special
BYU at TCU (-6), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
The Horned Frogs are hurting. QB Chandler Morris suffered a sprained MCL in last week’s 27-14 loss at Iowa State. His replacement, redshirt freshman Josh Hoover, has attempted 23 career passes. BYU, which will be coming in on 15 days’ rest, is by no means a stalwart defensively, but quarterback Kedon Slovis can help the Cougars put up points.
BYU 30, TCU 24
The pick: BYU +6
(Top photo: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)