The Houston Rockets have only played one preseason game thus far, but it’s already clear the team is in a much better mental space than this time a year ago and the vibes are headed toward immaculate.
Fred VanVleet has claimed the reins as team leader and is hard at work taking young talents in Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Şengün under his wing and is helping instill confidence, work ethic and instruction.
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Coach Ime Udoka returned to the sidelines after a year away and yes, we know it’s only preseason, but the work he and his staff have done since the beginning of training camp looks like it’s taking shape. Phase 2 of the Rockets rebuild, associated with winning basketball and a steady climb to relevancy, is officially underway.
Is there a basketball revival on the books in Houston? Will new rookies Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore be able to impact games from Day 1? Does this team have enough talent to improve on their dismal 22-win season in 2022-23 and wrestle with the Play-In hopefuls? Ahead of the regular season, we sat down with our Sam Vecenie, hoops expert and analyst, to break down all things Rockets.
Iko: Fred VanVleet arrives in Houston at a time when a decent chunk of players his age would be seeking to chase titles. Do you see him as a floor-raiser for this group, especially in the half court? Does last season’s down year indicate any regression with his game or was that a blip?
Vecenie: It’s hard to overemphasize how much of a floor-raiser VanVleet is for the Rockets. This was a team that, last season, had to string together 2,000 minutes from Daishen Nix, TyTy Washington Jr., and Josh Christopher. It also got over 2,000 minutes of Kevin Porter Jr. playing point guard. And while Porter had an OK season, he’s not, in my opinion, a lead guard you want running the show with your starters.
Essentially, the team is going from getting arguably the worst point guard production in the NBA to a guy who is an above-average starting lead guard. I don’t think the soon-to-be 30-year-old version of VanVleet is quite at All-Star level, but I have VanVleet as something like the 12th- to 15th-best point guard in the league. Most advanced metrics had him in the No. 8 to 12 range over the last four years, including last year when his shooting fell off.
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Really though, the shooting is the only portion of VanVleet’s game that fell off on offense. And largely, it was the story of two seasons for him from that perspective. Over the first half, VanVleet shot 37.3 percent from the field and 32.5 percent from 3. Over the second half, VanVleet shot 41.1 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from 3. In that second half, VanVleet also averaged 8.2 assists per game. So what was the change? Honestly, part of it was just a cold shooting run early. But moreover, a bigger piece was the addition of Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline. Poeltl is one of the best screeners in the NBA, and certainly helped VanVleet get that little bit freer from his man. That led to him getting a little looser for pull-up 3s, and allowed him to break down defenses and get into the teeth of the paint a little more often, forcing help and opening passing lanes.
Essentially, what the Rockets are getting is a legitimate pull-up threat from 3, a great decision-maker, and an aggressive, tough point-of-attack defender. What were the things the Rockets needed most from its guards? Well, the Rockets finished 20th in effective field goal percentage on pull-ups, they had the second-worst turnover rate in the NBA, and they were the second-worst defense in the league in part because of bad point-of-attack defense and struggles to fight through screens.
There is always a risk for guys who are about to turn 30 and have this many minutes under their belt. VanVleet has finished in the top eight in minutes played per game in each of the last four seasons. And generally, VanVleet has had a tendency to miss in the vicinity of 15 games per year each season. But if you were devising a point guard to play next to the Rockets’ talented recent draftees, VanVleet’s archetype would be a pretty great one to target. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll be an enormous help to this young core.
Iko: In what way will Udoka and his revamped staff improve Houston from a schematic standpoint? Is it a fundamentally different outlook from the past three seasons under Stephen Silas?
Vecenie: Honestly, you’ve been at training camp, you’ll be able to answer this better than I will in terms of pure X’s and O’s. Much like the point guard situation we described above, the Rockets are going from what was arguably the worst coaching situation in the league last year to, at the very least, a solid head coach. There is an upside beyond that as we see Udoka get past his single year in charge of a team, but we’ve seen enough from him to know that his presence won’t hinder the team.
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But even more than the improvement over replacement level, the most important thing Udoka will bring, in my opinion — along with some of the veterans — is a level of accountability. When Silas was there, it seemed like the young guards were allowed to take whatever shots they wanted without recourse from Silas. It resulted in a lot of hideous offense.
From a shot selection perspective, only two teams generated fewer catch-and-shoot 3s per game than the Rockets last year. The team’s ball movement in general was quite poor, as only three teams had fewer secondary assists per game, and no teams averaged fewer potential assists per game. This came in spite of the fact the Rockets, according to the NBA’s stats site, averaged more paint touches per game than all but four teams. In theory, paint touches should lead to more assists given that it should lead to collapsing defenses. But that didn’t happen. It’s all the crazier that the Rockets finished this low in potential assists given that they also have Şengün, who is one of the best passers among NBA big men. The Celtics under Udoka generally found effective shots in terms of distribution, and I would expect we won’t see him admitting any time soon that he needs to run plays for Smith. Just in the first preseason game, at least, it seemed like the offense ran a bit more through Şengün, and had a bit more movement off the ball than what we’d seen previously.
But more than that even, Udoka was recognized in Boston for the level of defensive improvement the team undertook his year in charge, going from middle-of-the-pack in the league all the way up to tied for first. Then last year, despite finishing third in the league, there was a real drop-off again without him. I would expect with Udoka in charge, we’ll see an increased attention to detail across the board on that end from guys like Green, or else changes will be made.
And if there isn’t an improvement once the real games start, that will give us the answers we need about the Rockets, too. More than anything, the change to Udoka gives the team a chance to evaluate the talent it has. Houston has a ton of interesting young players, a core that should be the making of a perennial playoff team from a talent perspective. But if we don’t see a jump in certain accountability-based standards, we’ll have some of the answers we need on who the critical pieces of the core are, and who they aren’t.
Iko: There’s been a lot of talk around Dillon Brooks — his contract, his recent offensive slide, his defensive impact. Where do you stand on Brooks and how can he raise the floor and ceiling of the Rockets defense? How much stock do you put into his Team Canada stint?
Vecenie: The contract is probably a bit aggressive and I would have liked it much more if the team had Brook Lopez backing him up on the interior protecting the rim. But again, undeniably he is a huge benefit to the Rockets for this upcoming season. Adding Brooks, VanVleet, and more than 700 minutes of Jae’Sean Tate to the fold for the Rockets is a significant upgrade to the defense.
So why do I think the contract is aggressive in that case? Well, first, I’m a big believer in Tari Eason and think there is a chance he’s straight-up better than Brooks as soon as this season and starts to cut into Brooks’ playing time. Eason looked phenomenal at summer league, and has as many natural athletic tools as any wing/forward in the NBA. He’s 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, he’s incredibly strong for his size while also possessing real explosiveness, and his motor never stops running. If Eason ends up surpassing Brooks even by next season, the Brooks deal will end up looking a bit big.
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But why would Eason surpass a player who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league? Well, it’s largely because of Brooks’ proclivity for horrendous shot selection. Over the last four seasons, Brooks has taken about 15 shots per game and averaged 16.2 points. He rarely gets to the foul line, and loves pull-up jumpers despite not being very good at them. Among the 57 players to take at least 300 pull-up jumpers last season, Brooks’ 40.2 effective field goal percentage was fourth-worst in the league. His 41.2 effective field goal percentage on those shots was not much better in 2022. And in 2021, that same 41.2 mark he posted on pull-ups was second-worst among high-volume pull-up shooters behind Russell Westbrook. It also doesn’t help that Brooks’ 3-point shooting hasn’t fallen in the last two years, either, after three straight seasons to start his career in the 35 to 38 percent range.
It’s hard to overemphasize how harmful his pull-up game and decision-making are to offenses. But it’s also hard to imagine him excising it from his game entirely because it’s who he is. He plays with aggression and unlimited confidence that makes him who he is. Honestly, the Rockets will largely benefit from having someone like this around the younger guys. Brooks may not always come off as the most serious person in the world, but his work ethic is known league-wide to be exceptional. He plays with drive and an edge the team lacked at times in recent years. I understand why they targeted him. He’ll help in some respect. The contract would make a lot more sense if Brook Lopez was around backing him up, and if Eason wasn’t set to be as good as I think he’s going to be sooner rather than later.
Iko: Is 35 wins a lofty goal for this group? If so, what’s a more realistic target? The Rockets have referred to this period as “Phase 2” which is supposed to align with a rerun to the postseason.
Vecenie: I think 32 to 35 wins is the exact goal this team should have. Yes, it’s a lofty ambition. The Rockets won 22 games last season. But there are 10 wins here worth improvement through many of the reasons I mentioned above. Adding VanVleet and Amen Thompson to upgrade the 2,000 backup guard minutes last season cannot be overstated. Nix, Washington, and Christopher were below-replacement-level players last year. According to Dunksandthrees’ estimated wins model, the trio combined for -3.7 wins last season. VanVleet was worth 11.4 wins. Even if you subtract the 4.9 wins that Porter was worth last season for Houston from VanVleet’s total, that’s still about a 10-win improvement on its own at the lead guard spot before accounting for whatever Thompson is capable of giving them.
Doing “estimated wins” math like it’s an exact science is foolhardy. Games don’t work like they do on paper. In my opinion, the league is deeper than it’s ever been. The Western Conference is a buzz saw with at least 12 teams ahead of Houston currently in the pecking order. But there is so much room for improvement for Houston from the lead guard spot alone. Plus, throw in Brooks, reasonable improvement from Smith, Şengün, Eason, Green, and the rest of the young guys? And then on top of that, a significant coaching upgrade? I don’t think that 35 wins is out of the question here. I don’t think I would project a Play-In berth, but the Rockets take a big leap this year and are much more competitive than they’ve been in recent years.
Iko: Last one before I let you go — how should Thompson be incorporated into the rotation? We’ve seen what happens when rookies are thrown into dumpster fires (Green, Smith) and how their development can stagnate. Could it have a direct impact on Houston’s season outlook and win total?
Vecenie: I love the idea of letting Thompson come along slowly behind VanVleet and allowing him to run the second unit. Where Thompson is going to thrive most right now is in transition. In bench units with Eason, Cam Whitmore, Tate, Jock Landale, and others, Thompson has a ton of potential running mates. Thompson is such a ridiculous athlete and defensive playmaker due to his physical tools that he will drive transition play on his own even as a rookie through his sheer presence in the game. Letting him run and go with elite athletes — maybe also getting him some run with Green in staggered backcourts — will allow him to be at his best, where his natural passing and playmaking gifts will thrive.
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Ultimately, Thompson’s effectiveness this year will be predicated upon how quickly he can develop in half-court settings. My bet is that this takes some time as he adjusts to the increased speed of the game and the spacing of the NBA court. This is the part of the game that will determine his ultimate upside. Can he become a decent spot shooter? Will he be an elite rim-pressure player even if teams go under every single screen and play him in drop coverage? Honestly, he’s one of the few athletes on Earth who might be able to overcome that through sheer motor, force of will, and explosiveness.
(Top photo of Fred VanVleet: Troy Taormina/USA Today)