As Vance Joseph studied film of quarterbacks ahead of the 2017 NFL Draft, he wasn’t sure how well the big numbers and electric highlights Patrick Mahomes produced in college would translate to the pro level.
But when Mahomes made his first NFL start, in Week 17 of the 2017 season against the Denver Broncos, it didn’t take Joseph long to become convinced the young quarterback was unique.
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“After that game that night, I knew he was going to be special,” said Joseph, who was in his first season as Denver’s head coach and is now preparing to face Mahomes on Thursday night as the Broncos’ embattled defensive coordinator. “He made his first third-down throw up the seam and you’re like, ‘Woah.’ The talent on tape was always there, but watching him play and watching him process, seeing how tough and competitive he was, it was impressive. He’s a winner.”
Especially against the Broncos.
Mahomes’ first start that night against Joseph’s team, made in place of Alex Smith as the Kansas City Chiefs rested starters with the AFC West title locked up, was his first in what is now a stretch of 11 straight wins against Denver. His run represents the bulk of the 15 straight victories the Chiefs have in the series.
And now it’s Joseph, who stood on the sideline as Mahomes brilliantly executed a two-minute drill that led to his first victory against the Broncos nearly six years ago, who is charged with finding a way to somehow slow down the two-time MVP and end the streak.
“Obviously, that number is disturbing for guys who have been here,” Joseph said of the 15 straight losses. “It’s disturbing for myself and players who have been here. So it’s about putting our best foot forward Thursday night and winning the game. It’s important.”
Here is where we point out that Mahomes versus Denver may feel like a bigger mismatch heading into the game than at any other point in the quarterback’s career against the Broncos. Thursday will mark the fourth time in the last seven matchups between the two teams that Denver (1-4) has been installed as a double-digit underdog heading into the contest but never has the Broncos’ defense been struggling like the unit is now. Denver ranks last by a wide margin in defensive DVOA and defensive EPA. The 181 points it’s allowed are 21 more than the next closest team (Washington Commanders). The 7 yards per play the Broncos have surrendered is the second-highest average allowed through five games since 2000.
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It’s not exactly the way you want to be playing defensively as you head into a matchup against the Chiefs, who are 4-1 despite not yet fully clicking offensively.
“It’s been frustrating. It hasn’t been fun,” said Joseph, who has faced heavy criticism for his role in Denver’s nightmare start. “But my focus is improving weekly. It’s been different for me and these players, also. It’s been bizarre. But I get it. The league is a hard league, but no one is blinking. Everyone is working to fix it. I thought last week (in a 31-21 loss to the New York Jets) it was closer, outside of the four or five plays. You can’t have those plays. In NFL football, you can’t run through the defense 70 yards, untouched (as Breece Hall did). That’s unseen. I’m not used to that. I’m unfamiliar with that. I’m pissed off with that. Absolutely I am. But I’m not broken. I’m working.”
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Joseph’s job got harder Wednesday with the news the Broncos would be without defensive lineman D.J. Jones and outside linebackers Frank Clark and Baron Browning, who is not yet ready to make his debut after being activated from the physically unable to perform list last week. Injuries have played a role in Denver’s defensive slide this season. Jones’ absence was notable last week in the second half when Hall ran wild after being largely bottled up by Denver’s defense in the first half. But those setbacks alone certainly don’t explain why the Broncos have been shredded defensively at a historic level.
“With all these motions, we have to get our feet in the ground and see our fits and fit it correctly,” Joseph said. “Tackling, fitting gaps, that’s run defense. It’s nothing special about run defense. It’s about numbers and having the proper guys in the proper fits.”
If there is any shred of a silver lining for Denver heading into this prime-time matchup it’s that the Chiefs haven’t hummed on the offensive side of the ball through five games in the way much of the league is used to seeing. The Chiefs’ marks in yards per play (5.8), points per game (25.6), EPA per dropback (0.17) and interception rate (3.2 percent) are all the worst for Kansas City since Mahomes became the team’s full-time starting quarterback in 2018.
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The Chiefs also have superstar tight end Travis Kelce listed as questionable with an ankle injury, though he returned in the second half of a Week 5 win against the Minnesota Vikings after suffering the injury and expects to play Thursday, he told The Athletic’s Nate Taylor. And perhaps there is some confidence among Broncos players who last season were part of two narrow defeats in the series — a 34-28 loss in Denver in Week 14 and a 27-24 loss in Kansas City in Week 17.
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But make no mistake, this is still the second-best offense the Broncos have faced behind the Miami unit that hung 70 points on Denver in Week 3. And Joseph’s units have struggled in key spots against teams that haven’t displayed much firepower against anyone else. It would make this perhaps the most unlikely spot during this eight-year drought against Kansas City for the Broncos to get a win.
Is the law of averages Denver’s best hope?
“It’s the next game for us and right now we haven’t won much,” Joseph said. “It’s a race to improve every week. Whoever we’re playing, it’s time to win a football game.”
(Top photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)
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