With the MLB postseason in full swing and the offseason moves not quite yet underway, there’s a lot of uncertainty on which direction the Red Sox will go, not only with upcoming free-agent signings and trades, but in finding a new head of baseball operations.
We put out a call for mailbag questions and got well over 100 submissions in less than 24 hours, so I did my best to find questions that were asked multiple times and tried to answer as many of you as possible!
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In part one here, we’ll explore the Red Sox’s interest in Japanese starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, examine the outfield mix, consider what to do at second base, look at how to evaluate Marcelo Mayer, think on what to do about designated hitter, ponder contract extensions for Triston Casas and Brayan Bello and more.
In part two on Friday, we’ll look at potential front office leader candidates and detail the interview process, assess what kind of atmosphere the next leader is entering as well as workshop trade scenarios for Alex Verdugo and Chris Sale, and see if the Red Sox should pursue Luis Robert.
Jarren Duran in left field, Ceddanne Rafaela in center, Wilyer Abreu in right and Masataka Yoshida at designated hitter — what are the chances this happens? — Doug S
I actually had posed a similar question to Cora during the final series of the season in Baltimore, but with the thinking that if Yoshida remained in left, perhaps having an elite center fielder with significant range like Rafaela would mitigate some of Yoshida’s defensive issues.
His reply: “Good try, but I think Yoshida has been a lot better the last month and a half. He was negative-8 (Outs Above Average) and now within the last month, I think he’s at neutral. He’s getting better jumps, better routes, he’s improving. Obviously, we don’t know what’s going to happen in the future. Ceddanne needs repetitions, too. For how much we like him in center field, the offensive part of it, we still have to work. … obviously, whoever plays center, it’s going to help (Yoshida). We’re going to have an athletic guy most likely in center. They should help him out.”
So, a few things here: Cora’s answer actually made me think they’re more inclined to start Rafaela in Triple-A next season to work on his offense. In 22 games, Rafaela hit .241 with a .666 OPS with 28 strikeouts and just four walks. His swing decisions have always been something they’ve wanted him to work on. We’ll see how he fares in spring training and who else the Red Sox get for the outfield this winter, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in Triple A to start the year.
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As far as Yoshida, I do think he’s gotten slightly better in the field. He’s never going to be great, but the Red Sox already knew that. They projected an average-to-slightly-below-average left fielder, but thought his bat offered enough of an impact that it was worth signing him. The numbers Cora referenced are mostly true. Yoshida finished at negative-9 OAA on the year, but posted a negative-1 in September, seemingly when he was most tired. With the World Baseball Classic last spring, Yoshida had limited time working defensively, so I do think a fuller spring training and the experience of a full year in Fenway will help.
Is it safe to assume that Yoshida will be able to play more next year as he should be more acclimated to the jetlag issues etc? — @djbeefthief via X
Since we’re on the topic of Yoshida, I do think having a year to adjust to the league, its pitchers as well as the travel in addition to a normal offseason and spring training will help him be more consistent in 2024. Cora said they planned on sending trainer Kiyoshi Momose to Japan this winter to work with Yoshida and make sure he’s prepared strength-wise for the season too.
Boston seems to have an abundance of left-handed hitting outfielders. Trading one for pitching (or middle infield help) makes sense. The popular narrative seems to be that shipping Alex Verdugo is the likeliest outcome, but does Jarren Duran represent a sell-high candidate who might yield a better return? — Julian B
Brian P asked a similar question about which of the young outfielders has the most trade value, and yes, I do think it’s Duran. I don’t know if that means they will trade him, but I do think he’d get a good amount of interest on the market considering he’s still a pre-arbitration player making roughly $800,000 while Verdugo is one year from free agency and set to make about $9 million. Duran has already played a good portion of time in the majors compared to Rafaela and Abreu. As we noted, Rafaela is extremely exciting defensively but still has a lot to prove offensively and Abreu put up a good two months, but as we all know, while he’s shown good progress, a lot of players can have good two-month stretches.
Duran isn’t a sure thing, of course, and slumped at the end of the year before finishing with the toe injury, but he’d likely be able to return the most out of any of these players on the market. Verdugo is certainly a trade candidate, and teams know they’re getting an average hitter and above-average defender, but one that might come with some disciplinary issues. I still think Verdugo could be traded for a mid-level infielder or reliever, but I think Duran might garner a player with more years of control and upside.
The next 5 WAR player on the Red Sox will be…? — Tyler M
For context, the Red Sox had no 5 WAR players in 2023. We’ll use Baseball-Reference WAR for this (instead of FanGraphs; the sites calculate WAR differently for those wondering). Rafael Devers had the highest bWAR on the team this year at 3.5 followed by Chris Martin (3.2) and Brayan Bello (3.1). Those were the only three players with a 3 bWAR or better. Xander Bogaerts with a 5.9 bWAR in 2022 was the last player to post a 5 bWAR or better in Boston. Devers had a 4.4 bWAR in 2022. Bogaerts and Kiké Hernandez both had 5 bWAR in 2021. So as far as the next player to reach that mark? Devers’ 2019 season was the only year he posted a bWAR over 5 coming in at 5.9. If Trevor Story can find more consistency hitting now that he’s healthy (as long as he stays healthy), he posted 6.2 and 7.0 bWARs in 2018 and 2019. Jarren Duran seems like he could be a candidate for a 5 bWAR year, too, with a full season. But he came in at 2.2 this past year. The next player with a 5 bWAR or better might not be on the team at the moment and while WAR is far from the best statistic it does help look at overall strength and impact on a season.
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We have seen the Braves, who are successful of late, really prioritize paying guys early before they hit arbitration. Is that a feasible model for the Sox to pursue? And what are some potential contract numbers you see for young guys still under team control? — Chrissian P.
I do think the Braves model is one the Red Sox want to pursue. Vinnie D asked how soon we could see contract extensions for Casas and Bello and those are the two I think the Red Sox are closest to pursuing. In July, when I asked assistant GM Eddie Romero about a Bello extension, he said:
“I think Brayan is a special case and we’ll make efforts to talk to him and his group. He’s basically done what he needs to do and what we would want of a young starting pitcher in this organization and he’s gone about it the right way, he’s a great teammate and he’s improved the quality of his repertoire, he’s a very hard worker, and he’s earned the respect of everybody here so he’s the kind we want to stick around obviously.”
I would not be surprised to see an extension for at least one of these two by spring training. If the Red Sox want to produce a more sustainable roster in terms of shoring up young talent, this is the way to do it. Casas isn’t the same type of player as Ronald Acuña Jr. or Corbin Carroll, obviously, but their pre-arbitration deals of eight years and $100-110 million feel like something he’d shoot for. As a first baseman, though, that feels unlikely. There aren’t any perfect examples of pre-arb first basemen with big extensions. Jake Cronenworth signed a seven-year, $80 million deal this season, but he’s 29 and has been in the league four years. Meanwhile, Spencer Strider signed a pre-arb deal of six years, $75 million. He’s a Cy Young candidate this year in his second full season, but Bello’s agents would probably use that contract as a framework.
Will the Red Sox pursue a full-time DH (not named Shohei), or use that spot to hide Devers and Yoshida’s gloves? — Evan P.
Cora has already said Devers will be playing third base next season. They’re not planning to move him off the spot anytime soon and I think they want Casas at first more often than not. As for Yoshida, I think it’s possible he’s a DH candidate. I thought it was notable that Cora brought up at the end of the season that he felt their best lineup was one with Justin Turner at second, Yoshida at DH and Duran in left. That only lasted a few games before Turner’s heel issues cropped up. But I do think it’s possible they move Yoshida to a semi-regular DH role and pursue a right-handed outfielder. If they opt to trade Verdugo or Duran, they may keep Yoshida in left and deal with his subpar defense while searching for a DH. If Turner opts out, they’ll need to replace that right-handed bat and in an ideal scenario it would be someone who can DH and also play the field. So there are lot of moving parts and options here, but I think it’s more likely they pursue a more versatile DH than rotate their current players through the spot.
With the Red Sox recently having a heavy, constant presence in Japan, and signing Yoshida, is there a leg-up chance at signing Yamamoto and possibly other future stars like Murakami, Sasaki, etc. when/if they are posted? — @Blake_a_waters via X
Last year when I wrote about the Red Sox’s pursuit of Yoshida I heard a lot about Yamamoto being the next big thing to watch out for. I can guarantee the Red Sox have been watching him for a while. In fact, part of their scouting process on Yoshida was watching him hit off Yamamoto in intrasquad games in NPB preseason and knowing he could handle Yamamoto’s velocity. I do think having Yoshida on the roster is an incentive for Yamamoto and Yoshida has said they’re good friends, but obviously this all comes down to money.
How best to bridge second base until Nick Yorke is ready? — Garrett A.
Yorke had an up-and-down year, starting hot, cooling off over the summer and then rebounding in August before another dip over his final 11 games in September. Overall he hit .268 with a .785 OPS up from his .232 average and .668 OPS in 2022. He could start the year off in Double A again, but it’s possible he heads straight to Triple A. With that said, the second base picture at the big league level remains unclear.
On the one hand, it’s obvious the Red Sox need to strengthen their defense and already have Casas, Devers and Story taking up three of four infield spots. Adding a strong second baseman seems like the best way to do that. But on the other hand, it sounds like the Red Sox are considering focusing on pitching and outfield and may consider moving ahead with their internal options at second base in Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez.
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As with every answer here, things can change based on the new head of baseball operations. But similar to catcher last winter, where we thought they might sign a more veteran backstop but chose to enter the year with Connor Wong and Reese McGuire (and minor-league free agent Jorge Alfaro), the same is possible for next year at second base. Reyes and Valdez saw a majority of the time down the stretch. Luis Urías had time too, though it’s hard to imagine he’ll be back as he’s owed roughly $4.7 million in arbitration. Cora was asked about Duran at second during the season and basically said it’s off the table. We noted Rafaela’s extreme athleticism above, and it’s likely he’ll get reps at second this spring, but again, the bat will determine a lot of where he lands.
Which of the Red Sox top prospects do you consider untouchable and which ones do you think are the most likely to be traded this offseason? — Daniel H.
At this point Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony seem to be the only untouchables. Whoever enters as head of baseball operations may think differently but he or she will likely listen to and lean on evaluations of existing front office members when it comes to this. As for those that might be traded, I think it’s possible Yorke, Miguel Bleis, Luis Perales, Wikelman Gonzales, Brainer Bonaci, Nathan Hickey and Chase Meidroth are all on the table. I’ll add Rafaela and Abreu in there too because I certainly don’t think they’re untouchable.
Here in Portland, we are hoping that Kyle Teel will at least start the season with the Sea Dogs. When do you project he will be the starting catcher for the Red Sox? — Rick H.
By most accounts, Teel is the catcher of the future, even with the emergence of Connor Wong this past year. I think it’s highly likely Teel will start off the year in Double A given he only had 14 games there, but a mid-year call to Worcester seems like a good bet. He rose so quickly through the system after being drafted in the summer that I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see him in Boston by the end of 2024. However, I do think 2025 is more likely. He only played a total of 26 games at the Florida Complex League, High-A Greenville and Double A, so how he handles a full year will be one test the Red Sox need to see him pass.
What are we to make of Marcelo Mayer’s season? Is this the time of maximum return if he were to be included in a blockbuster trade? I’ve seen too many Blake Swiharts, Henry Owenses, and Lars Andersons rise up only to be fool’s gold. — Erik K.
I understand why so many people are down on Mayer because a lot of prospects don’t pan out. But I’m not ready in any way to write off Mayer. He played most of the season with a shoulder injury before realizing that wasn’t doing much good. He finished the year hitting .236 with a .739 OPS in 78 games between High A and Double A but I’d like to see how he handles 2024 in Double A before making any judgments. I do think the Red Sox are willing to trade more prospects this offseason, but I think Mayer will be one of the few off the table.
(Top photo of Yamamoto: Christopher Pasatieri / Getty Images)