LOS ANGELES – USC has reached the halfway point of its regular season. As expected, the Trojans are 6-0, yet they’ve fallen five spots in the polls over the past three weeks.
And the rankings tumble is understandable. The last three wins have been rather uninspiring, and they’ve come against the softer part of the schedule. The Trojans’ second-half gantlet starts this weekend with a trip to Notre Dame. But first, let’s take a look back and evaluate the first half of USC’s season and determine what’s gone right and what’s gone wrong.
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What’s gone right
Caleb Williams’ playmaking
The most exciting play in college football right now might be Williams’ scrambling for a few seconds, evading defenders, looking downfield and finding an open receiver for a huge gain. It’s happened over and over and over. It’s surely not scripted, but Williams’ improv ability shows up nearly every week, and USC relied on it to beat Arizona in triple overtime Saturday night.
.@Calebcsw gets into the end zone
📺: ESPN
📱: https://t.co/M1RwFNx1TN pic.twitter.com/03JzQgnbYr— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) October 8, 2023
According to TruMedia, Williams has been responsible for 47 explosive plays this season (16-plus-yard completions or 12-plus-yard rushes), which is fourth most among FBS players.
Williams has elevated his game from his Heisman-winning season in 2022. Last year, Williams accounted for 52 touchdowns in 14 games. He’s already accounted for 28 through six games, so he’s on pace to surpass last season’s TD number in just 12 games.
And USC will need every one of those scores with a second-half slate that could feature at least five ranked opponents over the next six weeks.
The MarShawn Lloyd addition
Lloyd is third in the Pac-12 in rushing with 519 yards. The players ahead of him, Cal’s Jaydn Ott and Oregon State’s Damian Martinez, have 96 and 90 carries. Lloyd has just 67 attempts and is averaging an impressive 7.8 yards per carry, fifth best among FBS players with at least 50 attempts.
Led by Travis Dye, USC’s running backs were solid last season, but the Trojans lacked a true gamebreaker at that position. Lloyd has brought an explosive dynamic that’s added a different element to the offense.
The Trojans waste no time getting into the endzone.
MarShawn Lloyd with a 27-yard TD to put USC up 7-0 over Colorado.
They scored in two minutes and 27 seconds.
🎥 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/eQIpz1nPUE
— The Athletic CFB (@TheAthleticCFB) September 30, 2023
The fans have been clamoring for Lloyd to get the ball more over the past few weeks, so we’ll see how many touches he gets this week against Notre Dame. Rain is in the forecast for South Bend, so the passing game might not be as crisp and USC might be forced to rely on the run game a bit more.
The Jamil Muhammad and Bear Alexander transfers
Muhammad, a Georgia State transfer and one-time Vanderbilt quarterback signee, is tied for sixth among all FBS players with six sacks and has 10 total tackles for loss. In his three years at Georgia State, Muhammad had just 7.5 sacks and 11 TFLs.
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The Alabama native has sparked USC’s pass rush — the Trojans are tied for fourth nationally with 22 sacks and tied for first with 57 TFLs.
Alexander’s numbers don’t pop out on the stat sheet (2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks), but he’s been consistently disruptive from the interior of USC’s defensive line. He and Muhammad have been two of the few bright spots on defense.
The Zachariah Branch breakout
Branch hasn’t played the past two weeks because of an undisclosed injury. Coach Lincoln Riley said he doesn’t believe it’s a long-term issue but said Branch wasn’t a full participant at Tuesday’s practice.
USC hasn’t had a player as electric as Branch since, maybe, Reggie Bush. Branch single-handedly has turned USC’s return units from below-average to a team strength; he had a 96-yard kickoff return for a score against San Jose State and a 75-yard punt return TD against Stanford.
The absence of the 5-foot-10, 175-pound freshman has been noticeable on offense the past few weeks as well. Branch plays with a different speed and shiftiness from the other receivers. USC will need him back soon as its schedule heats up.
What’s gone wrong
The defense
USC allows an average of 5.7 yards per play, which is tied for 84th nationally. That is an improvement over the 6.5 yards per play the Trojans allowed last season, but they haven’t faced the meat of their schedule yet. They are 79th in scoring defense (27 points per game), which is a modest improvement over the 29.2 they surrendered last season (but, again, they have yet to play some of the top offenses in the conference).
Some more numbers:
- 68th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.3)
- 79th in yards per rush allowed (4.2)
- 115th in passing yards per game allowed (264.3)
- 129th in plays of 20-plus yards allowed (38)
Yes, the sacks and TFLs are a major positive, but there are so many issues elsewhere. Despite the struggles, Riley gave a passionate defense of his defense Tuesday.
“A lot of people in the media had their mind made up the first second there was any adversity this year, ‘Oh, my God, should’ve done this. They should’ve made this change and blah, blah, blah,’” he said. “And it’s not true. You’re going to go through the whole year, you’re going to have a tough game, you’re going to have a tough quarter. Do you respond? Do you show continued growth? That’s going to continue to be written the entire year, but there’s a lot of great things happening here.
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“We’ll own the things that need to get better, but people need to make sure they’re seeing the other side of it as well. That’s what we’ve been trying to say for a long time. … I like the job we’re doing there. I think we’re set up to play really well the second half of the season, and I can promise you inside these walls there is no expectation other than to play at a high level the second half of the year.”
The truth is the defense has to be much better over the second half of the season, especially against top-flight opponents like Washington and Oregon, who are capable of hanging 50 points most Saturdays.
Field goal execution
Special teams wasn’t an area USC really excelled in during Riley’s first season. Some aspects are better this year — punting and Branch as a returner — but the field goal/extra point unit has had issues in recent weeks.
Botching the snap at the end of regulation against Arizona was the most notable error, but Denis Lynch missed a 38-yard field goal late against Colorado, and before that, a bad snap led to a missed extra point.
The Trojans almost paid for it with a loss on Saturday. The execution will have to be cleaned up soon.
Offensive hiccups
The offensive line, with three new starters, has taken a step back this season. The run game has been inconsistent over the past few weeks — though some of that might not be on the line.
The receivers were off against Arizona and struggled to get open. Getting Branch back will help.
(Photo of MarShawn Lloyd: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)