DALLAS — On the eve of the St. Louis Blues’ 2023-24 regular-season opener against the Dallas Stars, I asked general manager Doug Armstrong, “Are they a playoff team?”
His answer surprised me a bit.
“Yeah, I’d love to get third place,” Armstrong said. “The way I look at it, I see Dallas and I see Colorado at a different maturation point in their organizations. They seem to be a half a letter to a full letter ahead. But then I look at Minnesota and I look at what Winnipeg’s going through, what Nashville’s going through, what we’re going through, and then you have Chicago and Arizona. So I think third might be an easier thing to get than one of the two wild-card spots.”
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For years, when Armstrong was asked how competitive the Blues would be in the upcoming season, he might not have said it in these words, but his belief was they’d be one of the better teams in the NHL. He would not have broken down the Central Division team by team or analyzed whether their chances were better earning one of the top-three spots versus the wild card.
But that’s how sobering the 2022-23 season was for the franchise, and that’s how much uncertainty has been brought on for the next few years.
Recently, The Athletic polled its staff, asking writers to predict the eight-team playoff field in the Western Conference. In order, the clubs that finished Nos. 1-8, along with the percentage of votes they received, were Dallas (100 percent), Edmonton (100 percent), Vegas (100 percent), Colorado (97 percent), Los Angeles (93.9 percent), Minnesota (93.9 percent), Calgary (57.6 percent) and Seattle (54.5 percent).
I don’t know how anyone could have issues with that. Every one of those eight teams finished at least 12 points ahead of the Blues last season, and seven of the eight finished 19 points ahead. And several of them made additions this offseason, while the Blues essentially have the same roster they had after the trade deadline last season.
Again, I have no problem with that.
But to find the Blues in the staff’s playoff prediction, you have to keep scrolling. You’ll go past No. 9 Winnipeg (36.4 percent) and No. 10 Vancouver (24.2 percent) before you get to the No. 11 Blues (21.2 percent).
That’s right, our writers believe a Vancouver team that finished just two points ahead of the Blues in last season’s standings (83-81) has a better chance of making the playoffs this season. Canucks GM Jim Rutherford has certainly made some good improvements, especially the hiring of coach Rick Tocchet, but Rutherford himself said recently they’re a playoff team “if everything goes right.”
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Honestly, the same could be said in St. Louis: If Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas can play close to the level of their $65 million contracts … if guys in “prove-it” situations, like Jakub Vrana and Kasperi Kapanen can actually prove it … if the top-four defense of Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy, Justin Faulk and Torey Krug can have a bounce-back year … and if Jordan Binnington’s save percentage can go up, not down.
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This is the part of the column where I’m supposed to say whether the Blues are a playoff team. I don’t mind taking a stance one way or another — I’ve done it before and been wrong — but I don’t know the answer.
I will tell you that when I filled out my Western Conference playoff field, I did include the Blues. I did so because I do believe this team has talent. It’s obviously not a Stanley Cup contender, but there’s more talent than what we saw last season.
In a world of fantasy leagues, the GM would have done something this offseason to change things up. But the Blues aren’t playing in a fantasy league, so their GM has to live with his contract mistakes and hope for the best.
And that’s what Armstrong was doing Wednesday.
“I just think if you look at (Pavel) Buchnevich, Thomas and Kyrou as a line, and you look at (Brayden) Schenn and (Brandon) Saad and Kapanen, and (Kevin) Hayes and Vrana, and then the defensemen of Leddy, Parayko, Faulk and Krug, if you just take those guys as a group, it shouldn’t be a last-place team,” he said. “They’ve got too much experience, they’ve got too much pride and too much talent, quite honestly.
“So I don’t see us being in that group of (teams) hoping to get the first overall pick. That’s not what we’re looking at. If you break the league into thirds, I hope to be competitive with that middle third, and I hope to be at the top end of that middle third. That’s our goal going in.”
I agree with Armstrong that the Blues can be competitive with the middle third. I’m not saying they will be. I’m saying they can be. Will they? As he said, battling for third place in the Central Division perhaps gives them a better chance for a playoff berth than a wild card, where they could be competing for two spots with the likes of L.A., Seattle, Calgary and Vancouver from the Pacific Division.
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So we’ll see. But most importantly, here’s where I stand on whether the Blues make the playoffs: Don’t veer off course to make it happen. That’s not where this organization is.
They liked what they saw from Zach Dean and Zachary Bolduc in training camp. Jimmy Snuggerud is back at the University of Minnesota this season but will be on the way. The club kept its three first-round selections, and highlighted by No. 10 pick Dalibor Dvorsky, the prospect pool is as full as it’s been in a long time.
They should keep their eye on the future. That’s why they kept Nikita Alexandrov, Tyler Tucker and Scott Perunovich, instead of risking them on waivers, and sent players like Calle Rosen, Nathan Walker and Mackenzie MacEachern to AHL Springfield.
Armstrong wants to be competitive, and that’s fine — the fans do, too. But when he spoke about the retool Wednesday, he said he’ll be watching from an “attitudinal look.” How do they play, not how can they get into the postseason.
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“I’m not concerned about where we fit in the standings, quite honestly, as, ‘Do we build that foundation back to where it was in the past and can we start building something to put us in the same spot where I view Colorado and Dallas now, with experienced players that have the pedigree and the perception that they should be winning championships?'” Armstrong said. “We have been there for the better part of a decade. We’re not there today, and my goal was to build this foundation to get back there as quick as possible.”
If they’re doing that, the playoffs won’t be that far off.
(Top photo of Drew Commesso, Zachary Bolduc and Connor Bedard: Jamie Sabau / USA Today)