THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — In a Los Angeles Rams season that will be unpredictable, at times chaotic and always interesting, we’re going to learn a lot about the young and older players (and their coaches) each week.
We’ll put the most interesting or relevant of these developments here, in nicely organized sections. Just for you!
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This week, some of the bad patterns the Rams have fallen into on either side of the ball are in focus.
Plus, I introduce a new section: “Knows Ball Anonymous,” where I seek out a coach, player, analyst, scout or executive to talk me through one behind-the-scenes moment of their choosing, anonymously. These could be Rams-specific people and topics, or perspective gleaned beyond the portable trailers at Cal Lutheran University … the point is you’ll hear from the people who know ball about something they find interesting.
What’s up with the second-half offense?
The Rams repeatedly see success on their opening (and scripted) drives, but have largely struggled in the second halves of games this season.
In fact, the only time the Rams have scored at least seven points in both halves this season was their Week 1 win at Seattle (I am not counting overtime points at Indianapolis). For that reason, I will extrapolate the significant statistics from Weeks 2-5:
Quarters 1-2 average: 44.5 percent early down rush rate, 0.42 EPA/dropback in first quarters and 0.20 EPA/dropback in second quarters, 194.3 yards/first half, 139.1 passing yards/first half, 12.3 first downs, 46.5 percent third-down conversion rate, 55.3 rushing yards.
Quarters 3-4 average: 24 percent early down rush rate (contextually, some of this is within a deficit but see additional statistics below), -0.46 EPA/dropback in third quarters and -0.10 EPA/dropback in fourth quarters, 135.5 yards/second half, 100 passing yards/second half, 8.6 first downs, 22.2 percent third-down conversion rate (including 11.1 percent third-down conversion rate in third quarters), 35.5 rushing yards.
Yikes!
“I’ve seen a lot of really encouraging glimpses and now the challenge is, how do we accelerate our ability to play at a consistently high level, one quarter, two quarters, oh and then by the way, third and the fourth quarter so that we’re able to finish out games?” McVay said. “There’s always a thought process on our end of what (it looks) like to emphasize those things within a practice setting? And then how does it ultimately come to life? But these guys are coachable as hell. They respond the right way. They’ve got a great demeanor about themselves.”
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Star receiver Cooper Kupp, who returned from a hamstring injury last week, spent his time on injured reserve as a “coach” of sorts. I asked him postgame on Sunday for his analysis from that perspective and from a player’s perspective about those half-to-half issues.
“At the end of the day, it comes down to us executing. You see a lot of stuff in the first half, and you kind of see the patterns, see what you’re getting. They make some adjustments, we gotta come out and we gotta be able to adapt and respond to that,” Kupp said. “I’m not saying coaches, I’m saying as players. You gotta run your routes and understand that things are gonna be different. You might be running the same route, but they’re playing it differently. Second half, they made some adjustments. (We need to) try to give Sean, give Matthew the widest range of successful outcomes no matter what look you’re getting and I think we gotta do a better job of that.”
Last week I co-wrote, with brilliant co-worker Ted Nguyen, a deep dive into how McVay has evolved his offense once again with both borrowed and invented innovations and schematic wrinkles. When it’s clicking, it’s really impressive stuff.
At the same time, it’s fair to keep track of things like the above, which make the Rams an incomplete offense despite their schematic potential.
They run on 23.6% of plays when down three points, FWIW, fourth-lowest.
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) October 9, 2023
(And, before I dive into the comment section … yes, I did already write about repeated issues the Rams’ defense has had in late-clock scenarios.)
Nitpicking situational decisions
I’m picking at details here. I am not arguing that the decisions below lost the game. However, because there is some inconsistency in the Rams’ late-down decision-making, I think it’s fair to track those (and ask about the theory behind them).
With 10:07 left in the fourth quarter Sunday, the Rams had a fourth-and-5 on their own 42-yard line. The Eagles were up 20-14, and while the Rams’ defense was, to that point in the second half, not allowing touchdowns — they also were not getting off the field quickly (and their offense wasn’t sustaining drives). McVay opted to punt, after calling three pass plays (two incomplete, one got five yards to Kupp). He said on Monday he didn’t consider going for it at that time, because it was “still a one-possession game” at that point.
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I asked McVay, who more than once lauded the Eagles’ ability to be a possession offense (meaning they are capable of keeping possession for extra-long amounts of time), was there any discussion about being more aggressive through the game on late downs to try to keep the ball out of their hands? The Rams did go for, and get, a fourth-down conversion en route to a touchdown in the first quarter, which McVay cited in his response.
“My thought process was, on the third down and 5, we got the exact look that we wanted (and) weren’t able to get an execution in that instance right there (it was an incomplete deep timing throw to Kupp),” he said, “(and) I felt like our defense got a couple stops that were key and critical (to that point). … Based on the way that Ethan (Evans) had punted and where we were at, I didn’t want to give them possible field position right there where they could make it a nine-point game. In hindsight, knowing that they’d go down and end up converting to a field goal, of course. But in the moment … I felt like that was best for our team.”
The Eagles responded with a 10-play, 72-yard field goal drive that ate 5:49 off the clock.
On their next drive, which started with 4:06 left in the game, McVay and the Rams had to go for it, this time on fourth-and-12 from their own 41-yard line. Their chip protection (help for rookie right tackle Warren McClendon, suddenly in the game after an injury to Rob Havenstein), failed and Matthew Stafford was sacked for a 13-yard loss.
Pressure under pressure
The Rams rank No. 19 in pressure rate, and are blitzing at a 25.3 percent rate. They are also No. 19 in “time to pressure,” according to TruMedia (the amount of time on average it takes for them to get pressure) at 2.46 seconds, but are fourth-slowest in the NFL to get to sacks, at 3.45 seconds. Contextually the latter can include a few different variables, including facing mobile quarterbacks the last two weeks (Jalen Hurts and Anthony Richardson both were able to extend plays; Hurts especially did so on third-and-long) and cornerbacks covering receivers tighter, for longer.
They are No. 21 in the NFL in pass-rush win rate, ESPN’s metric to assess pass rushing. That number is often even skewed more positively because of Aaron Donald’s own statistics. Donald ranks No. 8 among interior defenders in pass-rush win rate, despite seeing double teams on 60 percent of plays. Donald is also tied for No. 8 in total pressures with 23, and once again is keeping company in the top 10 among outside pass rushers as an interior defender.
No other Rams defender (outside linebacker or interior defensive lineman) cracks the top 20 in this metric. Rookie outside linebacker Byron Young is tied for No. 19 in the NFL in total pressures, however, with 20.
“I think that’s a case-by-case (evaluation),” McVay said this week, after I asked him if he was satisfied with the Rams’ pressure production. “There’s so many layers to that question … There have been some instances where we’ve rushed really well. Sometimes that’s bringing four, sometimes that’s bringing five. There’s been some instances where we’ve gotta keep the cup on the quarterback, especially over the last couple of weeks with some of these guys that can extend plays. … I definitely know this, I know that those are plays and specific situations that we’re capable of executing at a more consistent rate. I think that has been reflected in the first month of the season, and yesterday was not the execution that we expect.”
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The Rams have not been shy about exploring the pass-rusher market ahead of each season’s trade deadline, and this spring also discussed adding interior defensive line help.
But McVay suggested Wednesday that they won’t be as active ahead of this year’s deadline as in seasons past.
“You kind of have to have some resources and different things like that for those to be options,” he said, with a dry smile. “I don’t know that those conversations will be as prevalent as maybe in years past.”
Knows Ball Anonymous
“I was thinking about our O-line, especially over the first four weeks. … For a group that, with so many injuries and stuff last year, nobody really knew what it would look like, I feel like they are doing an unbelievable job, specifically in pass protection. You look across the board, Alaric Jackson has had to face some of the best pass rushers in the league the first five weeks. Steve Avila, who is a rookie, playing out of his mind. Coleman Shelton, who is just an unbelievable athlete. Look at what he’s doing in the screen game! I think his ability out in space is the best I’ve seen. … I feel like his timing has always been impeccable, knowing when to release and how to take a right angle. That’s so hard for those big guys out in space. … At right guard, you know, we’ve kind of moved around a little but Joe (Noteboom) was doing an incredible job. Dot (Kevin Dotson) coming in, then Rob (Havenstein) has been Rob.
“The whole group in general, it’s not like we’ve been calling a bunch of quick-game. We’re calling five-step dropback passes, we’re calling seven-step dropback passes. Those guys are holding up, man. … We’ve provided some chip help, I think we do a good job in our play pass of getting eight hands on guys and handling the fronts that we’ve faced. We’ve faced some unbelievable fronts. … You go back and look at last week, what Philly does when they bring out their “penny” looks. They put their five best rushers on the field. You’ll get Brandon Graham right over the center. Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis as the three-techs, sometimes they’ll put (Derek) Barnett there as the three-tech. You’ve got No. 94 and (Haason) Reddick on the edge. That’s about as hard as you’re gonna get in the NFL. I can specifically think of a few dropback passes we had last week, we’re holding up. … Even on some of the plays where maybe (the offensive line is) getting beat, it’s the strain at the end of it where Matthew (Stafford) is getting just a click longer to stand in there and throw and they’re keeping hands off of him. That’s what really makes the difference in this league, that extra fight.” — Knower of Ball
(Top photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.