Read Vic’s latest NFL picks against the spread.
So, when is Kirk Cousins getting traded to the Jets?
It makes too much sense, right? The Vikings are going nowhere this season — and that was before they lost Justin Jefferson to injury — Cousins is on the last year of his contract and the Jets are desperate for a quarterback.
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Zach Wilson is not going to get it done for the Jets in the absence of Aaron Rodgers. Wilson lacks confidence — and for good reason. He has seen film of himself playing in the NFL.
Rodgers vows to return from his Achilles injury before the season is over, but that seems a little risky. Why would the Jets wait? They have a pretty good team and Cousins would make them a Super Bowl contender again.
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What’s that you say? Rodgers’ ego would never allow for the addition of a new possible savior in Cousins?
Oh … OK.
Luckily for Cousins, he still has first-round pick Jordan Addison to throw to in Minnesota. Two of Addison’s three scores have come on throws 30-plus yards downfield — tied with the Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill for the most among all players — and he should torture a bad Bears secondary.
Luckily for you, you have me. That’s three straight winning weeks, and (clears throat) my 9-5 record last week should actually be changed to 10-4. I only picked the Packers because of Aaron Jones and when he was ruled out before the game on Monday, I fired off the bat signal and changed my pick to the Raiders on social media.
Last week: 9-5 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets.
Season record: 38-39-1 ATS, 12-13 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video
This one does seem like free money. The Broncos defense has allowed 5.9 yards per rush, the most through five games by any defense this century. And they also have trouble covering tight ends, so assuming she doesn’t miss a prime-time marketing opportunity, you will be seeing a lot of Taylor Swift cheering on Travis Kelce. Russell Wilson actually covered the spread twice against the Chiefs last season, but he looks worse to me this year. And maybe it’s the receivers. Wilson has the longest average time to throw of any QB this season — 3.15 seconds — but he still makes bad throws into traffic or tries to scramble while holding the ball away from his body. Lay the points. Even on a rainy night.
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The pick: Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (+4) in London | 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network
Ravens wide receivers had four drops in their Week 5 loss to the Steelers, tied for the most by a team in a game this season and the most for Baltimore in any game over the last five years. It also tied the number of helmet slams in the game from Lamar Jackson. I clearly have no read on the Titans this season, but their bend, but don’t break defense — they’ve allowed the fifth-most yards (36.1) and the fourth-most plays (6.4) per drive of any team in the NFL — should be able to hang on overseas against the Ravens. Feels like a field-goal game either way, so we’ll take the extra point as well.
The pick: Titans
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Texans stacked the box against the Falcons last week — Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards over expectation were minus-14 (sixth lowest) — and quarterback Desmond Ridder made just enough plays for Atlanta to squeak out a two-point win. I see the Commanders taking a similar approach, and it’s hard for me to see Ridder having success two weeks in a row. The Commanders have some talented pass rushers, and I am just not a Ridder guy. Did you know that the Commanders have forced opponents to go an average of 8.5 yards to convert on third down, best in the NFL? That bodes well against a Falcons team that has converted just 19.4 percent of its third-down chances with 8 or more yards to go (19th in the NFL). Washington is also coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bears with extra time to prepare.
The pick: Commanders
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
We had the Vikings to cover against the Chiefs last week, and it was a loser but the right side as it took an injury to Jefferson and a picked-up penalty flag for the Chiefs to secure the win and cover. Cousins is also a champion at taking a late sack to overshadow how well he played before that. But that won’t be an issue this week as the Bears don’t rush the passer well … and consequently, have problems in pass coverage. Justin Fields could run away from the Vikings defense and pull off the upset, but you’re getting some line value as people are betting the Bears due to that big win over the mighty Commanders last Thursday.
The pick: Vikings
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The weather could be a factor in this one, as heavy winds could wreak havoc on a potential Joe Burrow–Geno Smith shootout. Burrow looked like his old self last week and Smith is showing that last season wasn’t a fluke. If the Bengals have to turn to Joe Mixon to run the ball, that won’t be good. The Seahawks have allowed a league-low 3.2 yards per rush and are one of two teams yet to allow a 20-yard rush this season (the Lions are the other). Give me the Seahawks and morning-person Pete Carroll coming off a bye week. Carroll is 16-8 ATS in early Eastern time zone games.
The pick: Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+7) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The 49ers are due for a letdown coming off a rout of the Cowboys, not to mention the news that P.J. Walker will likely start in place of Deshaun Watson at quarterback for the Browns. I really like the Browns defense and fill-in running back Jerome Ford and normally would go against the public favorite 49ers (the spread has already moved 2.5 points since Monday). But the 49ers have Christian McCaffrey, who has converted a first down or scored a touchdown on 32.5 percent of his touches, the highest rate through five weeks in the last decade. And the 49ers have Trent Williams, who has now allowed two pressures on 26 career pass rushes against him by Micah Parsons.
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The pick: 49ers
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Dolphins lost talented rookie RB De’Von Achane to a knee injury — and people are still moving this point spread higher and higher. Nobody cares that Achane leads the NFL in 20-yard rushes this season (six) and leads all running backs in EPA per intended touch (0.50). Oh wait … teammate Raheem Mostert is third in 20-yard rushes (three) and second among running backs in EPA per intended touch (0.17) — and the Panthers can’t stop the run. And they have enough injuries where they struggle against the pass as well. And Bryce Young is still struggling. People may think the Dolphins will be looking ahead to the Eagles next week but I will still roll with distracted fast guys over the Panthers.
The pick: Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Gardner Minshew revenge game. The former Jaguars quarterback steps in for an injured Anthony Richardson and should fare OK against a Jacksonville defense that is better against the run than pass. Can he keep up with Trevor Lawrence, though? The Jaguars started airing it out last week, as Lawrence averaged 8.2 air yards per attempt, nearly 3 yards higher than his previous weekly high this season. I wanted to take the Colts with the Jaguars coming off two games in London and a big win over the Bills, but I think there is some value in the point spread.
The pick: Jaguars
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Derek Carr had his best game last week, Alvin Kamara is flashing his old form and the Saints defense never let up against the Patriots. Now they hit the road for a second straight week and get to play a Texans team with a decent defense and the best rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud. Trap? Yeah, for the Texans. Carr never forgave them for skimping on the offensive line and having opposing teams treat his older brother, David, like a human piñata.
The pick: Saints
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-3) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
A year ago, the Patriots’ Mac Jones was stiff-armed into the grass by Chandler Jones before the Raiders defensive end ran off for a game-winning touchdown. Now, Chandler Jones is gone and Mac Jones is back for revenge. The Patriots just lost two games by a combined score of 72-3, and yet are only a field-goal underdog to the Raiders and old friends Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo on the road. Maybe no one is scared of a Raiders offense that is averaging 16 points. Myself, I am scared of traps, the Bill Belichick-McDaniels matchup and teams coming off emotional wins on a short week.
The pick: Patriots
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Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
I have watched enough of the Cardinals now to know that they are legit. Not legit “good,” but legit “not too bad” — unlike what I thought going into this season, when I thought they were tanking for Caleb Williams. They play hard for their new coach Jonathan Gannon, get pressure on quarterbacks and their quarterback Joshua Dobbs can make some explosive plays every now and then. The Cardinals were giving the Bengals all they wanted last week until Dobbs threw a pick six. The Rams have lost three of their last four games, with the win coming in overtime.
The pick: Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+7) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Zach Wilson made some mistakes last week that you can only make against a team like the Broncos and still win. Now he gets to face a tough Eagles defense and he will be doing so without talented guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles. The Jets have a very talented defense and there is no value in this inflated line. But, just like in the 49ers and Dolphins games, I have to side with the dreaded public because I have no faith in the opposing quarterbacks. Maybe a three-game teaser is the most logical play.
The pick: Eagles
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Lions are rolling, but they have some injuries in the secondary, which would worry me more if I was buying the whole Baker Mayfield resurgence thing. I am not. The Buccaneers are 3-1 but a lot of that is due to the fact that they are tied with the 49ers for the NFL lead in turnover margin (plus-10). There is a huge discrepancy in offensive lines in this game, and it looks like WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) is making progress to returning for the Lions. That’s a big deal, and if he plays, I definitely like the Lions.
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The pick: Lions
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New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Giants are 0-5 against the spread and 1-4 overall, and quarterback Daniel Jones has a sore neck and hasn’t been cleared for contact this week yet. Did we mention that the Bills are coming off a loss and that the Giants’ defense loves to blitz even though they never get home? … Wait, hold up … I almost missed the Tyrod Taylor revenge angle. If the former Bills quarterback starts, he will definitely lead a couple of second-half touchdown drives to lead the Giants to a 10-point loss and backdoor cover. It’s a lock.
The pick: Giants
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
Since the NFL expanded in 2002, there have been 26 teams that made the playoffs the same season they suffered a regular-season loss by at least 32 points — like the Cowboys just did. Two of them reached the Super Bowl: the 2020 Buccaneers and the 2008 Cardinals. So … the Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl? Nah, but they bounce back against a Chargers team that is not very good defensively and not as good as it should be offensively. And while Austin Ekeler is returning for the Chargers, Justin Herbert is not 100 percent and an often dominant pass rush (not last week) will look to lower that number significantly.
The pick: Cowboys
Byes: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers
Best bets: Vikings over Bears, Commanders over Falcons, Jaguars over Colts, Cardinals over Rams, Cowboys beating Chargers. Plus, our first-ever three-team teaser release (where you knock 6 points off the spread and have to win all three for a plus-180 payout) — Dolphins, 49ers and Eagles.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Jaguars came through for us against the Bills last week and we’re 3-2. Cardinals over Rams this week.
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett.
(Top photo of Jordan Addison: David Berding / Getty Images)
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