The contract
Anaheim Ducks sign center Trevor Zegras to a three-year extension with a $5.75 million average annual value.
Luszczyszyn: Finally, the game of chicken is over. That’s good news for both parties, who want to put last season’s struggles behind them and start building toward something great. There’s a fair bit of risk and reward for both parties with this deal, too.
The usual convention for young players on the brink of stardom is a lengthy deal that swallows up their prime. That’s usually great for teams and bad for players, who end up getting under-market value.
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With Zegras, there’s a bit of risk there based on how he played last season. He put up a solid point total (65 in 81 games), but it wasn’t backed by anything substantive. He wasn’t as dynamic with the puck through all three zones, and he was dreadful without it. In his rookie season, Zegras looked like a bright spot in Anaheim’s future. In his sophomore season, he looked like an empty-calorie question mark.
Signing a bridge deal in that sense mitigates some risk for Anaheim. If he turns into the franchise player many expected after year one, he’s still under team control when he hits restricted free agency after the 2025-26 season. If he’s indeed all flash and no substance, then an $8 million commitment or more would sting. With his defensive value among the league’s very worst, Zegras isn’t worth that right now. The bridge deal gives Anaheim time to figure out if he can be.
If Zegras doesn’t turn into that kind of player, Anaheim saves some money long-term and Zegras loses out. That’s his risk here, and he’s obviously betting on himself that the next contract he gets will be well worth the lower short-term price tag. For young players, that’s usually a very good bet to make.
Dynamic offense is difficult to come by and costs a lot when you find it. That’s why it’s often the best of course of action for a team to take the risk early in a player’s career, regardless of initial warts — especially if it’s a player the team believes in. It’s where a lot of the league’s best contracts come from. It’s understandable that there is worry on Anaheim’s end as to whether Zegras’ style will win games, but he’s still young enough to prove that.
If Zegras keeps up on his offensive trajectory and turns into just an average defensive player, he’ll be worth $10 million in three years, thanks in part to a rising cap. And that price could theoretically be more if his offense explodes past current projections.
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That’s the risk Anaheim is taking. While the Ducks’ caution toward being safe rather than sorry is understandable, it’s likely to prove costly.
Player grade: A-
Team grade: C+
Goldman: There are legitimate questions as to whether Zegras can be the guy in Anaheim. So far in his NHL career, he hasn’t proven that he can be more than a good complementary piece. His surroundings haven’t exactly been great, which does make it hard to judge his upside, but if he’s a true star, management should expect him to shine despite his environment. It’s fair to be even more skeptical of that after last season, which may be why the team was willing to go long-term with Troy Terry, who has been its best forward the past couple of years, and not Zegras.
The Ducks avoided overpaying or overcommitting to Zegras, getting him on a contract that lines up pretty well with his actual value at this moment. A strong season would make it look like a bargain, and at least another year of the same wouldn’t make him look overpriced. For now, management is buying itself time to decide how much Zegras is worth and how big a part he is of the team’s future.
That said, there’s something to taking big swings and betting on young talent with longer deals sooner than later. That’s been a trend around the league in recent years, with players like Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens and Cole Caufield, among others.
Sure, there’s risk in that approach, but the upside is the contract looking really team-friendly as a player approaches his prime. With cap growth and the Ducks’ cap situation, it could have made sense for the team to go long-term now — probably with a contract somewhere in the Terry-range (seven years, $49 million).
It’s always possible that Zegras wanted a chance to bet on himself a little more before going long-term. If Zegras just cooks in these next couple of years, he’s going to maximize his earnings, ideally in a world with more cap space to go around. That three-year term really benefits him here.
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That term is the worst aspect of the deal for Anaheim. A one- or two-year bridge probably would have saved management a bit more in the long run, because Zegras now has three years to really boost himself.
But maybe management isn’t concerned. Zegras will still be an RFA when the contract is up, and since a few deals will be expiring at the same time (like Cam Fowler and Radko Gudas), the team will have options for how to invest at that point. Plus a year later, Alex Killorn’s contract will be up and so will John Gibson’s (unless he’s moved sooner). So by sticking to the mid-range deal, the Ducks avoid filling up their cap with big deals that have a risk of not aging well — before they’re even out of the rebuilding phase.
It’s a more cautious approach that could cost them at the end of the day, but it’s probably the most risk-averse path for a player who hasn’t yet shown he has a consistent, game-changing level.
Player grade: A
Team grade: B+
(Photo: Debora Robinson / NHLI via Getty Images)