CINCINNATI — Much has happened since the Cincinnati Bengals left Nashville on Nov. 27 last year.
Approximately 3,492 bachelorette parties have hit Broadway, accounting for 3,491 pedal wagon rentals (one buzzed maid of honor accidentally purchased a pet wagon for transporting golden doodles).
Three dozen budding country music stars were discovered in the back alleys and saloons of Music City while 842 others are hoping a TikTok with a catchy dance and tiny microphone launches a breakthrough.
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These are all made-up numbers in jest, of course. For the Tennessee Titans, however, what’s real is they’ve since produced just as many viral videos as wins: one.
Tennessee lost seven in a row to close out last year and started 1-2 this year, using overtime to top the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2.
The Bengals didn’t lose again from that point forward last year until the AFC Championship Game.
Yet, somehow, despite the stark difference in results, they both arrive back at Nissan Stadium with similar levels of concern for what Sunday will bring. For the Bengals, it’s because of another week dealing with Joe Burrow’s de-calf-feinated offense. It looks, sounds and smells like the normal Bengals attack, just without all the good stuff.
The Titans are hoping one last ride with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry can restore the magic of three years ago. An offensive line among the worst in the league only expedites the aging process.
Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Titans, including 19-16 in the AFC Divisional Round two years ago, a day that still makes Tennessee fans curse Tannehill’s name.
The Bengals have won seven in a row on a short week and feature a defense looking energized after dominating the line of scrimmage against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday.
All these factors should be enough to instill confidence Cincinnati can right the season’s ship back at 2-2 this weekend, but nothing has come easy this year. Nothing has come easy in Tennessee, either, despite leaving with wins. The Bengals needed every bit of Burrow’s magic and the defense’s timely turnovers to escape twice.
I think they avoid disaster but continue scuffling to recalibrate the offense. The defense and Evan McPherson’s favorite road venue should be enough for the well-rounded nature of Cincinnati’s roster to deal with the Titans’ physicality.
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Still, every game comes with a tenuous feel given the touch-and-go fretting of calf tweaks.
Much like the final legs of those bachelorette party pedal wagon rides, for the Bengals, it only takes one false move for a fun weekend in Nashville to end up in tears watching a friend treated by a medical professional.
Prediction: Bengals 21, Titans 16
Mail time.
Run, pass or boot. Against Tennessee, the Bengals offense is: Horrid, incrementally better than Monday or looks incredible. I lean incrementally better. Not just next week but in the coming weeks as well. — @CincyFanatic25
Starting with a run, pass or boot just feels right. Considering 86 percent of the questions received for this mailbag were about the offense, this makes even more sense. Also, feel free to read this story on the issues at play with the offense right now, since many of your questions were addressed in there.
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I’m running with incrementally better. With each passing week, Burrow is learning more about the limitations of his calf. Burrow with a foundation of obstacles and more time to find answers has traditionally gone well. Another week of healing should build confidence in increasing his mobility to add a few layers to the dropback game.
I’m booting incredible, though. This will not be a deal where the Bengals can snap their fingers and dominate as they did during the 10-game win streak last year. The dig-out looks too steep. The task at hand doesn’t ask for that. They need to play turnover-free football, create a few explosive plays when given a chance and not be afraid to be efficient, if boring.
“We just want to do what we need to do to score points to win the game,” head coach Zac Taylor said Wednesday. “That’s it. That’s our objective. Establishing the run, establishing the pass, this and that, do what we got to do to help our team win the game and allow ourselves to score points.”
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Allowing themselves to win the game right now, until Burrow regains his magic, means letting defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo do the cooking.
For that reason, I’ll pass with horrid. It’s not unreasonable they struggle again. There’s certainly a regression scenario given how ugly the offense has looked for long stretches.
That 9 ➡️ 1 you know and lovepic.twitter.com/mwdefbTuLF
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 26, 2023
Looks to me like Tee Higgins is having his “Bates in 2022” moments in multiple games this year. Is there anything to that long term for this year? I noticed Joe Goodberry mentioning it on an early third-down pass that went to Ja’Marr Chase instead of Higgins and he never really got confidence back on Monday. — @derekaober
Moving Chase around helps a lot. They should do it with Tee as well. — @kensil75
Extracting the Baltimore Ravens game, Higgins has caught two of 16 targets. He has dropped passes, committed pass interference and not won a single high-point 50-50 ball that’s become his signature.
The “Bates in 2022” mindset holds water. Bates admitted to being in his head during that first contract year. It’s only human and I appreciated his transparency at the time. It’s not that it affects preparation or a specific play in the moment, it’s when nights like Monday don’t start well. Then the tendency to press, get in your head and think too much about needing to make the big play takes over rather than becoming comfortable with the game coming to them — or sometimes not coming to them at all.
Only Higgins knows how much of that’s true or false. He’s a fairly loose, confident guy, so I wouldn’t overthink this, but in the same way that Burrow focused on feeding Chase last week, there’s no harm in involving Higgins early at Tennessee to focus on getting him quickly on track.
As for moving him around, this was thought to be an objective of the staff with him this year to help increase their versatility. We’ve seen it utilized in spots (the slot fade against Grant Delpit in Cleveland is a prime example), but the total usage inside has actually gone down.
• 2021: 21 percent
• 2022: 17.8 percent
• 2023: 14.4 percent
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Moving around doesn’t solely consist of slot usage. Anecdotally, there have been many examples of Higgins moving pre-snap on plays designed for him. There’s just only so much that you can do when most of the pre-snap movement and versatility will start with Chase since most of the cloud and double coverage will be finding him.
How concerning is it that with the staff and player continuity, the offense looks so wildly haphazard (for the third year in a row)? Fair to criticize the staff? — @Rachel_hasse
It’s fair to criticize any staff which asks to be judged on points per drive when they rank 30th in the statistic. Specifically, when that happens with the weapons available to them. There are extenuating circumstances here, of course. Call those excuses and choose not to listen, but that’s reality. So is the need to adapt quickly.
The mess of the first three weeks given the continuity invariably falls at their feet. This is their team. Those are their results. Just as slow starts have become part of their personality, so has a unique ability to adjust on the fly as well as just about any team in the league the last two years. What they did after five games last year, shifting to the downhill, gap, shotgun run scheme was masterful. It set off a 10-game win streak.
Filtering out the first five weeks, the Bengals finished fourth in points per drive last year and seventh in 2021. They need to solve the puzzle and the sloppiness of the entire group is on them, but they have the benefit of the doubt because of what we’ve seen in reacting to the slow starts.
Tight end looks like a massive hole in the Bengals lineup. What impact has not properly addressing it in the offseason had on this offense? Irv Smith Jr. wasn’t/isn’t the answer. — @KingBengalRob
Do you see the Bengals making any moves for TE or do you think they are content with who they have currently on the roster? — @Bengalsnto
The Bengals have lived the entire Irv Smith Jr. experience through three weeks. Unremarkable contributions, a few missed opportunities and an injury (hamstring). This was the scouting report on an athletically gifted player who never quite put it together in Minnesota.
The idea that anyone can play tight end in this offense and collect 450 yards with four touchdowns looks foolish in the early going. At some point, you’ll rely on the tight end to make a play or two for you. Smith hasn’t. Tanner Hudson made a few on Monday but also made a few critical errors that proved costly. If a move were to be made at the trade deadline, this would be the glaring position worth targeting. Considering their traditional lack of desire for in-season trades and devaluing of the tight end position, in general, don’t hold your breath.
How many weeks away is Burrow from regular health? — @shanghai_kid902
Does AJ McCarron’s signing imply a backup competition? Or is he just a second or third option if Burrow can’t go and it’s Jake Browning? — @instantlyrich
Somewhere between calf questions No. 14 and 15 for Burrow on Wednesday, I wondered to myself just how sick of talking and thinking about this injury he must be. It’s a unique situation. It’s the entire Bengals situation right now, but this is truly exhausting. And going nowhere as a topic for the foreseeable future.
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As Dr. Jessica Flynn said in my most recent piece on the recovery, he will have to manage this all year. That doesn’t mean he’s destined for a full season as 45-year-old Tom Brady in the pocket, merely the weeks will come with therapy, treatment and some level of dealing with it. It’s fair to say if no setbacks occur, you could see full Burrow on the other side of the bye week.
GO DEEPER
Joe Burrow’s calf: How the Bengals got here and the upcoming offensive consequences
That would be five weeks removed from the tweak, including a full two weeks of rest before flying to San Francisco. That’s probably the best-case scenario, to be honest, but realistic.
As for McCarron, I’d expect him to hang around in the background for a while as the practice squad quarterback. If something were to happen to Burrow, someone who would be comfortable on a big stage to execute the basics of the offense is the need behind Browning. What will be interesting will be how long the Bengals keep three quarterbacks active on game day. They’ve always gone with just two. They prefer it. Elevating a third QB speaks to their level of confidence in Burrow finishing the game.
Everyone is asking that we run the ball more. Without Joe Burrow being able to go under center and with how little we use 12 personnel, how efficient can our shotgun run scheme be? Good enough to lean on? What’s its ceiling? — @SwervinIrvinJr
The Bengals should be able to lean on the run game more. I’d throw the quick checkdown game as an extension of the run game. Both need to be better.
Last year, from Week 6 on, the Bengals ranked third in the NFL in rushing efficiency out of the shotgun (47.3 percent success rate). They averaged 13.4 gun runs per game against 8.7 from under center (excluding kneeldowns). Under center, they ranked 10th in efficiency (42.7 percent).
To answer your question, shotgun runs were what they did best last year. Offensive coordinator Brian Callahan referred to it as a “minor limitation, but not one we shouldn’t be able to overcome.” That’s about right. To this point, they rank tied for last in shotgun run efficiency (25 percent). They need to tap more into the concepts that worked for them last year to stay ahead of the sticks.
As for checkdowns, the Bengals have thrown behind the line of scrimmage more than any team in the NFL (34 attempts). They rank second to last in yards per attempt (2.5). If the quick game and checkdowns must be part of the current solution, they must create more production.
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What are the best reasons for Chad Johnson to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame? — @BengalsRotationalPiece
Since the merger, there are eight receivers with two All-Pros and six Pro Bowls to their name currently eligible for the Hall of Fame.
Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter and Calvin Johnson are already in. The other two are Andre Johnson and Chad Johnson.
Both topped 11,000 yards for their careers, so longevity doesn’t apply.
Chad compiled five seasons with at least 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. Only Rice (11), Moss (eight), Harrison (six) and Antonio Brown (six) have more. Larry Fitzgerald and Owens also have five.
Forever a part of Bengals history.
Congrats @7BOOMERESIASON & @ochocinco! pic.twitter.com/a6TdR729E5
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 26, 2023
At a certain point, if you were one of the two or three best in the league for multiple seasons and can show half a decade in the elite tier of your position, you belong.
For the record, there are 16 receivers in the Hall with one or zero All-Pro seasons to their name. Not to diminish the worthiness of their careers, but just to point out there’s a bar for peak performance Johnson has surpassed.
There are a number of great receivers not in the Hall and that’s a tough position group to crack, no question. Yet, if you are a believer in judging off the best six to eight years of a player’s career (a method to which I subscribe), then he should be deep in the conversation. For me, it’s not necessarily that he’s on the outside of the Hall, it’s mind-boggling that he’s never even made it to the final 25 cut.
(Top photo: Ian Johnson / Getty Images)
The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.