There’s no denying that the Cubs are as close to a sure thing to make the playoffs as it gets. According to FanGraphs’ projections, the Cubs have an 86.3 percent chance of winning the division and a 95.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. So let’s just fast forward through the summer and get right to the October fun, right?
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It’d be easy to want to get right down to business, see if the Cubs can defend their first World Series title in 108 years and begin what many believe is a sports dynasty. But it’s important to remember to enjoy the ride. Last season could easily have been a blur. The stress for fans throughout the year was likely high as many hoped for the best, but after so many years of disappointment, expected the worst. Sure enough, the worst nearly happened. But only nearly.
With the World Series in the bank, Cubs fans can take in the little things and enjoy each moment of the season. April won’t be as easy as it was last season for the Cubs. They open up against their pesky rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, have a pair of series against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that should be better than last season and face two legitimate contenders for their throne in the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox. It’s hard to see them duplicating last year’s 17-5 start.
But it’s less about the competition and more about focusing on the budding superstars on the North Side of Chicago. Last season the defense and pitching earned a lot of the love, all of it deserved. Both units were special, the defense historically so, and they should both be great again. This season feels like the offense’s turn to shine.
The Cubs have the reigning MVP in Kris Bryant, one who betting markets have as the odds-on favorite to repeat. Anthony Rizzo has received MVP votes the last three seasons and finished fourth that last two. It’s rare that a team has a pair of legitimate MVP candidates in their lineup, but that’s not all. One could argue this group has five. At first blush, that sounds ridiculous, but take a closer look at what could be and suddenly it becomes more of a reality.
Kyle Schwarber is already a legend, but now he has a chance to put together a full season and show off what he can really do. Suggesting a .242 career hitter may win an MVP definitely is a stretch; only one person has ever won an MVP hitting under .270, when Marty Marion hit .267 in 1944. But scouts, and anyone with two eyes, say Schwarber has a special hit tool, so the ability to hit .300 is there. Entering the 2015 season, I had a rival assistant general manager tell me he’d hoped Schwarber would fall deeper in the draft because he believed his pure hitting ability was better than any player that was in the minors at the time, and most in the majors as well. A scout who has kept close tabs on Schwarber over the years and watched him numerous times this spring suggested he felt Schwarber could put up a .300/.400/.600 line.
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Even with the defensive concerns — which may be overblown if you watched how Schwarber moved in left field this spring — that screams MVP. And if you don’t trust the scouts’ takes, trust your eyes. No below-average hitter sits out of action for six months, then returns for the World Series and performs the way Schwarber did.
According to DRS (FanGraphs’ metric, Defensive Runs Saved), Addison Russell was tied with Brandon Crawford as the best defensive shortstop in baseball. UZR had him at fourth and FRAA had him ninth. Again, just watch him play and you’ll see Russell can pick it up the middle. His actions may not be as fluid as other flashy shortstops like Francisco Lindor or Andrelton Simmons, but he’s right up there, talent-wise.
Now it’s time for his offense to catch up. Russell seemed to tap into his power by knocking 21 home runs last season. And while his batting average dipped to .238, his walk rate jumped by over a point, his strikeout rate dropped by nearly six points and while he hit the ball harder more often, his BABIP dropped by nearly 50 points.
Russell switched up his mechanics in the middle of 2015 with the stated goal of turning on pitches and pulling them more often. Now, for his career, he has a 1.253 OPS when he pulls the ball. It’s become a strength of his, but Russell uses the bat well enough that he can also go the other way well too. If he can improve his .545 OPS going to the opposite field while also finding a little more luck with the ball dropping, Russell has the profile of an MVP candidate.
Then there’s Willson Contreras. He’s rapidly improving on the framing front, he already has a cannon for an arm – he caught 37 percent of would-be basestealers and even John Lackey is complimenting him on how quickly he’s improved at calling a game and handling a pitching staff. The kid has all the tools to be a special defensive catcher while also handling all the intangible responsibilities that come with the position.
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He’s also really figured something out at the plate. Something seemed to click for Contreras after the 2014 season when he posted an .870 OPS in the Venezuelan Winter League. He then delivered an .891 OPS at Double-A the next summer and followed it up with an impressive run in the highly competitive Arizona Fall League. After crushing Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .353/.442/.593 line, he forced his way into the Cubs lineup and promptly slugged an opposite-field home run on the first pitch he saw.
Spring stats don’t matter, but Contreras did look locked in at the plate in Arizona. If he catches the vast majority of the innings for a top-tier staff, posts strong defensive numbers and manages to improve on the .845 OPS he posted during his rookie campaign, he’s in the conversation for MVP as well.
There it is, five legitimate candidates for MVP in one lineup. And that’s just the position players. I’m just assuming Jake Arrieta doesn’t decide to break out his Bob Gibson act again. It doesn’t seem fair, it’s almost seems surreal, but then again, you could say the same about last fall’s results.
So while getting right to the October action seems like the thing to do, nobody is going to want to miss the lead-up to it all. Cubs fans can exhale now. There’s no need to fear that doom stalks the team at every turn.
The Giants didn’t pull off that comeback from down 2-0, the Dodgers could only temporarily shut down the Cubs’ relentless offense and a depleted Cleveland team just couldn’t close out the more talented group. It really happened, the Cubs are world champions. Now it’s time for fans to enjoy the season as they go out there and try to do it again.