HOUSTON — A season ago, Jeremy Peña used September to segue into near stardom. He made the most discussed mechanical adjustment in Astros history and removed the leg kick in his batting stance. The switch helped his pitch recognition and propelled the rookie to ALCS and World Series MVP honors.
Twelve months later, Peña’s evolution as a hitter is evident, even if the results do not indicate it. His numbers now are almost identical to those he posted last regular season, but with far more encouraging peripherals and underlying metrics.
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Divisions and pennants aren’t won with either of those. Production is paramount, especially as the Astros embark on a pivotal three-game series against the Texas Rangers on Monday.
September is here again, but there’s not one obvious adjustment for Peña to make. His shortcomings are obvious and the total opposite of what plagued him as a rookie.
Peña has slashed both his chase and whiff rate by two percent. His walk rate has spiked from 3.9 to seven percent. Peña is seeing 3.65 pitches per plate appearance after watching 3.59 as a rookie. Sliders are no longer automatic whiffs and his approach has never been better, but it seemed to arrive at the expense of what made him so prolific last season.
Peña struck 22 home runs as a rookie, but has gone 207 consecutive plate appearances this season without one. He entered Sunday’s 6-1 loss to the Yankees slashing .256/.321/.388 after posting a .253/.289/.426 clip last season.
More than half of his contact has been on the ground, causing his slugging percentage to plummet and prompting Peña to confront the problem.
“When the frustration mounts enough, the player comes to you and says ‘Why is this happening?’” said hitting coach Jason Kanzler, who works primarily with Peña.
So, sometime last month, Peña approached Kanzler and asked the question everyone watching the Astros wondered: “Why can’t I get the ball in the air?” Confronting the problem became the first step to fixing it.
“It’s really easy once that happens to open up video and show guys real simple things,” Kanzler said.
Kanzler helped Peña facilitate his stance overhaul last September. To hear Kanzler describe it, removing the leg kick arrived as an emergency, a last-ditch effort to salvage something out of a struggling rookie prior to a postseason push.
Peña is a better overall hitter now. His pitch recognition, plate discipline and ability to adjust in-game have improved dramatically, even if counting stats suggest otherwise. Fixes this September are more subtle, sort of foundational pieces of Peña’s offensive makeup.
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“The starting positions are better. They’re way more consistent — his whole load and the hands are really quiet. He’s obviously seeing the ball better. His August was the best plate discipline of his career. This year has been better plate discipline,” Kanzler said.
“These are foundational things. Maybe it’s not sexy the way he’s producing now, but for the last month and a half, he is definitely producing.”
Peña entered Sunday’s game against the Yankees slashing .321/.410/.443 across his past 123 plate appearances. He worked 15 walks, struck out 21 times and notched 11 extra-base hits, though none were home runs. A .400 batting average on balls in play suggests there’s some fortune involved, but Peña’s peripherals are improving.
Peña hit .360 and slugged .500 against fastballs in August. He had a sub-.300 batting average and sub-.420 slugging percentage in three of the previous four months. Peña had six extra-base hits against fastballs in August. He had nine total against them all season beforehand.
“He’s doing a better job of staying behind his front side, or staying behind the ball,” Kanzler said. “He’s not chasing the ball with his chest and not opening up as early with the top half. His hands are getting to a little bit better, more consistent launch position. They’re a little bit lower and they’re staying back longer.”
“The geometry of his swing, when it’s good for him, is really simple. The hands stay back. At launch, they’re over the back foot and they’re not too high. They don’t want to be hiked up. When he makes his move and starts going at the ball, the hand stays still and he stays behind his front leg, kind of rotates behind his front side and lets the bat be the thing that goes out front, not the body trying to go get the ball.”
Baker back?
Though it’s unclear if he’ll even make the final decision, Astros general manager Dana Brown said on Saturday he and manager Dusty Baker have not discussed Baker’s future beyond this season.
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“Respectfully, both of us, we haven’t really said a whole bunch,” Brown said on Saturday. “I feel like we have a great relationship. We communicate well. We both put the team first. I think there will come a time when we have those conversations, but we haven’t said anything to each other.”
Baker, 74, is working on a one-year contract he signed last November. Other than to reiterate his oft-repeated phrase of “if I win one, I might as well win two,” Baker has dropped almost no hints about whether he wants to manage in 2024.
Precedent suggests nothing will be resolved until the season ends. Owner Jim Crane, who hired Baker in 2020, has allowed his manager to work each of the past two postseasons on expiring contracts with no assurances whether he’ll return. In all likelihood, Crane will have ultimate control of Baker’s future.
“I actually respect that in Dusty,” Brown said. “It’s like ‘Hey, let me do what I’m doing and we’ll talk at the end of the season.’ He hasn’t said a word and I haven’t said a word to him about it.”
Whitley done
Forrest Whitley may have finished another lost season.
Chances are “slim” that Whitley will pitch again this year, Brown said on Saturday, adding another chapter to the cursed career of Houston’s former top pitching prospect.
Whitley strained his lat muscle during a start at Triple-A Sugar Land on May 25. At the time, the Astros announced Whitley would miss “three to four months.” Brown said then that he envisioned a return sometime in August, perhaps even as a member of the major-league bullpen.
Brown doused that optimism on Saturday. Though Whitley has been working at the team’s spring training complex in West Palm Beach, Fla., it is unclear where exactly he is in his rehab process. Whitley has not appeared in any games on a rehab assignment and Brown did not make it seem like one is imminent.
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“I wouldn’t call them setbacks, I’d just say he couldn’t get over the hump,” Brown said on Saturday. “It’s a little bit different for starters. We’re monitoring it closely, but I’m more disappointed than anything. Crushed that we haven’t had an opportunity to see him here.”
Whitley, who will turn 26 this month, was baseball’s top pitching prospect prior to the 2018 season. He’s thrown 129 ⅔ innings of affiliated ball since 2019 and sports a 7.01 ERA. Various nagging injuries cost Whitley time during 2018 and 2019 before Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the entire 2021 season.
Whitley is still a member of the Astros’ 40-man roster, but this is his final year with minor-league options, making his future — at best — murky. Brown confirmed on Saturday the team will seek a fourth minor-league option for Whitley this winter.
Players eligible to apply for a fourth option must have fewer than five full seasons of service time in either the major or minor leagues. Whitley started his professional career in 2016, but has had so many injured list stints that he may meet that aforementioned requirement.
Whitley’s winding road has not diminished Brown’s bullishness on his future. His history with Whitley dates back to 2016, when Brown scouted him as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays front office. The Astros selected Whitley 17th overall in that June’s draft. Nothing since has gone according to plan.
“He’s been a guy that I’ve had my eye on the whole year,” Brown said. “Every time we got close to really wanting to do something, he’d come up with these injuries. Of course, it’s not really going to happen this year. But I haven’t given up on him.”
(Top photo of Peña: Bob Levey / Getty Images)