Most European summer transfer windows close on Friday, the U.S. Open Cup final is set for Sept. 27 between Inter Miami and the Houston Dynamo and the MLS regular season is hitting its stretch run.
There is plenty to dive into around the league, so let’s open the mailbag.
Do you think (Thiago) Almada’s deal goes through? —@AufcXylph
Ajax had recently emerged as a suitor for Argentina international and Atlanta United attacking midfielder Almada. But this question was more interesting a few days ago because Ajax signed Georges Mikautadze to replace Mo Kudus, but I still would have said no then anyway. It’s simple, really: This deal had no chance of getting done in the summer for less than $30 million. I don’t think Ajax was going to get there.
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I’d be surprised if anything gets done ahead of the deadline, as Atlanta prefers. It would almost certainly take a bid of $30 million to get something done right now, which would ratchet up pressure on Atlanta to accept. A lot of ifs at play here that make a deal unlikely. But, hey, teams get desperate as the deadline nears.
Almada is central to any chance Atlanta has of making noise in the playoffs (the same goes for Giorgos Giakoumakis, who had some interest from abroad as well).
The 22-year-old will no doubt end up in Europe before long. He’s still likely to set a new league record outbound transfer (currently at $27 million, set by Atlanta’s deal to send Miguel Almirón to Newcastle).
Is the Cade Cowell transfer to Bologna dead? —@futbolmonkey
Yes, this isn’t happening. Talks have been inactive for a bit now and Bologna FC has signed two wingers since initially making a bid for San Jose Earthquakes winger Cade Cowell.
The final offer was an initial loan with a purchase clause of $3 million and could have risen to $5.5m with potential add-ons and a sell-on clause. The purchase clause included an automatic trigger that was very likely to be met. The terms weren’t accepted and Bologna went in a different direction.
Cowell, 19, continues to wait for his European move. The dynamic attacker already has 105 first-team appearances and eight senior caps with the U.S. men’s national team.
Barring another team coming in with a late push for Cowell, San Jose will revisit in the winter.
Saw reports this morning of Ercan Kara moving to Turkey. Have you heard anything? —@mikeaspillane
This one is not dead.
Though Orlando City rejected what was bluffed as a “best and final” bid from Turkish club Samsunspor for forward Ercan Kara, Samsunspor has returned to the table with a better offer, sources close to the deal tell The Athletic.
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A deal is now close to being reached and I’m expecting it to get done soon. There’s no time constraint too as the Turkish transfer window is open until September 8, a week longer than most European windows.
Orlando was not looking to push out Kara and would have been happy if the window ended and he was still at the club but is ready to move on if its value is met, even without the possibility of replacing him until the winter at this stage. Crucially, the deal would open a designated player spot for Orlando.
Kara, 27, has five goals and one assist in 15 appearances (11 starts) this season. He joined the club ahead of the 2022 season and has seven caps with Austria, though the last came in 2021.
First-year forward Duncan McGuire, 22, has cut into Kara’s playing time. McGuire has 10 goals and two assists in 24 appearances (1,147 minutes). He also has interest from Europe, but no offers yet. With Kara on the verge of leaving, that center forward spot is undoubtedly his.
What would you expect the Dynamo to get for Coco Carrasquilla? —Christopher
At this stage, surprisingly, there hasn’t been an offer from Europe for Coco Carasquilla. The Houston Dynamo were bracing for bids, plural, but the interest hasn’t materialized into concrete offers despite Carrasquilla’s career year for club and country.
The good news? It means one of Houston’s most important players looks more likely to be here through the end of the season, with a playoff push and an Open Cup final looming this fall.
Carrasquilla, 24, has three goals and six assists in 24 appearances across all competitions this season for the Dynamo. He won the Golden Ball at this summer’s Gold Cup, leading Panama to the final.
Houston faces Miami in the Open Cup final at the end of September.
Inter Miami is never losing again and will make the playoffs, right?? —@dfermo
This is the most interesting story to follow for the rest of the MLS regular season, easily. Miami returned to MLS play on Saturday staring up at a 14-point deficit to the playoff line with just 12 games left. Miami rotated Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets, DeAndre Yedlin and Sergii Kryvtsov and picked up an important win against the New York Red Bulls away from home.
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Now, Miami is 11 points back with 11 games left. They are in a dead sprint to chase down the playoff line where every point is crucial. Messi is going to miss time — as many as three games, according to Tata Martino — so proving they can perform without him was important.
Miami likely needs to win at least eight — but probably nine — of its remaining 12 games. They’ve already had one but the schedule doesn’t let up in the interim. Miami hosts Nashville on Wednesday then heads to LAFC on Sunday, two difficult opponents. We’ll know much more about their playoff hopes in a few days.
It’ll be an arduous climb, with minimal room for error or a string of unlucky bounces, but I still think they get in.
At full strength, Miami might be the best team in the league. Even if they have Messi for eight of the remaining 11 games, or perhaps seven if they mix in another rest, that comes close to getting them to the line. It’s the depth that makes me believe they’ll do it.
NEW: With one game left before the calendar turns, August has already been Lionel Messi's busiest month since leaving Barcelona. https://t.co/rGmN8q3dTr pic.twitter.com/kgzzjFQZJ6
— Jeff Rueter (@jeffrueter) August 29, 2023
Three U-22 initiative signings Tomás Avilés, Facundo Farías and Diego Gómez played key roles in the win over the Red Bulls. Avilés played 90 minutes, helping keep the clean sheet; Farías was the most dangerous attacking outlet before Messi subbed on; Gómez scored the opening goal.
Playing through the international breaks will make it tough, but it will be must-watch TV as every point is crucial. Are you betting against Messi and this team?
GO DEEPER
When will Messi rest? Inter Miami's superstar faces a jam-packed end to 2023
I am kind of curious about new markets opening up to MLS. I feel like the biggest pipeline we have into the league is from South America (mainly Argentina). Do you see any new ones developing or think we could see an influx of players come in from the areas we have not seen a lot of? —@ringer_young
This is a very interesting question. As the soccer world becomes more connected, scouting infrastructure increases at each club and MLS’ place in the food chain continues to rise, new markets will open and current pathways will get wider and more traveled.
Think of the ones we already know from South America that have increased over the last few years:
- The level of players from Argentina is increasing (Almada, Farías, Avilés and more)
- Same for Uruguay (Diego Rossi, Facundo Torres, César Araújo, Santi Rodriguez and Taty Castellanos came from the Uruguayan league)
- Colombia-to-MLS is wide open (like top 18-year-old talent Jhon Durán in 2022 along with plenty of other quality in-prime players)
- Brazil has begun to open more in recent years (Joao Paulo, Gregore, Brenner, Talles Magno)
That will continue, but the biggest area of growth will be players from outside the top five leagues in Europe as well as South Korea and Japan.
Players like Cucho Hernández and Riqui Puig have come from top-five leagues as well but in less-than-ideal situations. Hernández was on a relegated Watford team and Puig was told by FC Barcelona that he wasn’t in the plans. Players like that have always gone to another team in Europe, either in the top five leagues or somewhere just outside. Now, MLS clubs are a legitimate option.
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Giakoumakis, Eduard Lowen, Sebastian Driussi and Evander are other examples of this mold. It can continue to be another key driving force in raising the level of quality across the league.
Asia is another relatively untapped market. Minnesota is a team that has worked hard on its scouting network in South Korea, trying to sign a pair of senior national team strikers before adding Jeong Sang-Bin via the U-22 initiative. They will continue looking there in the near future. Vancouver signed Hwang In-beom (from South Korea) and Yohei Takaoka (from Japan). This will become more prevalent.
What is your level of surprise at the amount of success St. Louis City SC has had in its first year and how sustainable will it be going forward? —Adam
Very surprised — to dunk on myself. I, like many others, had them bottom of the Western Conference. Prognosticating MLS is very hard! Here they are at the end of August, still in first place playing at a 1.76 PPG clip. It’s been wildly impressive.
Atlanta’s 2017 debut season was explosive, but they finished fourth in the East with a 1.62 PPG. LAFC outdid them a year later, finishing third in the West with a 1.68 PPG. St. Louis is pacing better than both but hasn’t quite gotten the same respect because there is no Josef Martinez, Almiron, Carlos Vela or Rossi.
We got too caught up in the lack of traditional big names and didn’t focus enough on the infrastructure. Coach Bradley Carnell has been an A+ hire and the tactical vision from the front office through the coaching staff informed every single personnel decision. Their identity was to be a high-pressing, transition team. They signed players who are best suited for that. It’s simple, but so important.
The most recognizable name was Roman Burki and most of the narrative around that deal was that few MLS teams invest that much in a goalkeeper. Now, he’s the front-runner for MLS Goalkeeper of the Year. It’s been worth it.
RB1 🧱 pic.twitter.com/8W8NcJXp9s
— St Louis CITY SC (@stlCITYsc) August 27, 2023
And it’s sustainable. Not quite to expect to be at or near the top of the conference all the time (unfair for any team, really) as they’re overperforming their expected goals by a wide margin (50 goals on 33 xG), but the bones of this team are legit.
Lowen is elite, so is Burki. The Tim Parker renaissance is real. Young players and veterans alike have developed under Carnell. They will keep adding to this roster and have flexibility.
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Year one has been a huge success and St. Louis is set up extremely well for the future.
Who is the “most New Jersey” MLS player who’s not from New Jersey? —Joseph Lowery
From my guy Joe Lowery, understanding my brand.
The qualifications here are anyone who scores high on the xDAWG chart, talks smack and kicks people.
Felipe Martins is for sure the best honorary New Jersey example. Another shout is Jose Martinez. Johnny Russell is in this conversation too.
Which MLS player would be most improved with a solid mustache? —Ben Wright
From my guy Ben Wright, understanding my brand.
Is all of them an acceptable answer? No? Nkosi Tafari needs no improvement and is the most fashionable player in the league, but he would make a mustache look cool and trendy (unlike me, who looks a bit like an idiot.) I bet Héctor Herrera could crush a mustache.
(Photo: Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports)