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Julio Rodríguez appears to have left that first-half slump behind. Meanwhile, is call-up season upon us? And on Ken’s last day off, we have Cardinals beat writer Katie Woo here to talk about Nolan Arenado’s defense. I’m Levi Weaver — welcome to the Windup!
Julio Rodríguez is on a heater: I’m back, na-na-na-na-na-na
From Opening Day through the end of June, Julio Rodríguez didn’t look like himself. On July 1, he was hitting just .238/.302/.407 (.710 OPS) — hardly a disaster, but well short of the high bar he had set a year before, when he won AL Rookie of the Year and a Silver Slugger award, made the All-Star team and finished seventh in MVP voting.
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Rodríguez has started to put it together. Since July 1, he’s hitting .326/.379/.531 (.910 OPS) — including nine hits in his last two games. He is also the second player in MLB history to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in each of his first two seasons (Bobby Witt Jr. did it first earlier this year).
It’s surely no coincidence that the Mariners have won more games since Rodríguez began to find himself. They were 38-42 at the end of June, and are 28-13 since, pulling to within a half-game of the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild-card position.
JULIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO*breathe*OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO pic.twitter.com/m0oKsxYehs
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) August 17, 2023
Katie’s Notebook: How Nolan got his arm strength back
At first glance, Nolan Arenado seems to be having a typical year. He’s on pace for his third-straight 30-homer, 100-RBI season, and his .282 average and .833 OPS are on par with his career average. But one facet of Arenado’s game took a sharp decline in the first half of the season, and it was the one that normally is never in question.
Arenado — who has won the National League Gold Glove at third base every year since he debuted in 2013 — saw his defense start to crumble.
Since Statcast began tracking Outs Above Average (OAA) as an official stat in 2016, Arenado has registered at least +10 every year except 2020, including 14 last season. This year? Arenado has just 4 OAA.
In the first month of the season, Arenado registered 3 Outs Above Average. But things fell dramatically in May (-3) and June (-2). By June 15, Arenado’s Defensive Runs Saved for the season also sat at a shocking -1, a staggering turnaround from the 19 DRS he put up in 2022.
So, what happened? According to Arenado, he experienced “dead arm” in the first half of the season for the first time in his career. The good news for Arenado (and St. Louis)? An extensive strengthening program put in place by the Cardinals’ training staff seems to have helped turn things around.
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“I feel like it was the first time I’ve ever had dead arm,” the 32-year-old explained this week. “I don’t know what it was. … (In) the first half, I would do those plays where I throw off my back foot, and (the runner) would beat it out. Last year I would get ‘em out. This year, I’m not. There are little things, those adjustments I’ve had to make, but I feel like in the second half I’ve shown I’m back to being who I am.”
Arenado’s recent play reflects that. After the All-Star break, Arenado was credited with +2 OAA in July. So far through August, Arenado has tied the major-league lead with +3. As for the patented Arenado charge and throw plays? Those are looking a lot better as well.
“I have to give credit to the trainers,” Arenado said. “I’ve been doing a throwing program with heavy balls and light balls trying to get my arm strength back, and I feel like I’ve done that in the second half and it’s finally catching up. Now I get to trust in my arm a little more than I did in the first half.
“First half was not me. The second half is me. That’s the best way I can describe it.”
Are rehab assignments going away?: Ain’t gonna work on Maggie’s farm no more
It was 2017 and the Texas beat writers were talking to Cole Hamels about a rehab assignment in which he had looked borderline untouchable. He shrugged it off, saying he didn’t pay attention to the results — guys in the minor leagues are taking their hacks and everyone wants to say they got the best of a big leaguer, so there are swings on pitches that big-league hitters would normally take.
Why are we talking about Cole Hamels in 2017? Because six years later, it seems like his philosophy on the efficacy of playing minor-league games might be spreading around the league. More and more players are coming straight back to MLB action when they’re healthy.
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It makes sense. Clayton Kershaw’s quotes in that story mirror Hamels’ from a half-decade ago:
“I think no matter what, there’s no way to simulate pitching in a big-league game,” Kershaw said. “If your stuff is good in the minor leagues, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be good here and vice versa. There’s no way to do it except kick the rust off and go out there and do it.”
Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge and Corey Seager are among the others who have avoided a rehab assignment this year.
It’s a slight bummer for fans and minor-league teams who benefit from massive interest in a brief cameo from a big leaguer. But for the players, it makes sense: If you can get your timing and feel right at the big-league ballpark, why would you want to waste time playing in games that aren’t going to help your team’s record.
Call-up season is creepin’ up: Just hold on, I’m comin’
Late last night, the Cardinals announced that top infield prospect Masyn Winn was being called up to the big leagues. The move came in response to a few injuries (including to Lars Nootbaar, whose injury looked particularly painful). But Winn isn’t the only prospect who could be on the brink of a call-up.
• In San Francisco, Kyle Harrison could be up soon. He has looked impressive of late, and with the opener/tandem situation finding less success over the last couple of weeks, Harrison could help solidify the rotation. The trick, says Andrew Baggarly, is how to make space for him on the roster.
• The Cubs, likewise, could soon see outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and pitcher Jordan Wicks in the big leagues. As Patrick Mooney says, it’s a nice feeling for the Cubs and their fans to see them “as specific pieces to help the major-league club right now, and not anointing them as future franchise saviors.”
• Not all the potential call-ups are guys hoping to make their debut. Brett Baty was demoted on Aug. 7 but has hit three home runs in the minor leagues since then. Will Sammon has a story about Baty’s upbringing in Texas, and how he has overcome slumps in the past.
• The Padres are thinking about promoting Jackson Merrill, Dennis Lin reports. The question is, with Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, where would Merrill play? The idea is to have him debut as a super-utility player, which would explain why he’s getting starts all over the diamond in Double A lately.
Handshakes and High Fives
Legendary cameraman Pete Stendel was struck in the face with an errant throw at Yankee Stadium July 5. Recovering from the injury has been hard enough. What nobody knew at the time? Stendel was also battling prostate cancer. Brendan Kuty has an update on his progress.
The Red Sox are 3 1/2 games back in the AL wild-card standings, but their schedule is about to get a lot more difficult.
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A trio of young homegrown Phillies have made all the difference in the team’s success this year. It’s something the team has needed for a while now.
An update on the Wander Franco story: A specialized unit is handling the investigation in the Dominican Republic.
Last night’s magnificent performance from Lance Lynn — seven innings, no runs, four hits — was just the latest in a dominant stretch by Dodgers pitching that has led to an 11-game winning streak.
Jim Bowden ranks the front-runners in the AL Rookie of the Year race, breaking down his top 10 by position players and pitchers.
Can fan-owned cooperatives change the relationship between fans and owners for the better? Melissa Lockard examines.
There’s a new baseball movie hitting theaters next Friday. It’s called “The Hill” and it’s based on the true story of Rickey Hill, who attempted to overcome a degenerative spine disorder to make it to the big leagues. Britt Ghiroli spoke to Hill in advance of the film’s release.
Aaron Gleeman tells us how Ryan Jeffers reclaimed the role of the Twins’ catcher of the future.
The Windup Playlist
It’s Friday, which means it’s time to reveal which songs we borrowed lyrics from this week for our subheaders. They’ve been added to this month’s playlist over on Spotify.
- “Gimme a Chance” — Azealia Banks
- “I’m Fine (No Really)” — Durry
- “Just a Memory” — ODESZA, feat. Regina Spektor
- “I Don’t Need Your Rocking Chair” — George Jones
- “Make The Most Of It” — Starfire
- “You Gotta Be” — Des’ree
- “Everything Sux” — Descendents
- “Song of Sorrow” — Elle King
- “Without Me” — Eminem
- “Maggie’s Farm” — Rage Against the Machine
- “Hold On, I’m Comin’” — Sam & Dave
(Top photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)