Timo Meier, Patrick Kane, Bo Horvat and Ryan O’Reilly were among the headline trade targets during the 2022-23 season. Now the question is who will lead the way on that list for 2023-24?
The list will include players that could be flipped as soon as later this summer, following in the footsteps of Erik Karlsson and Jeff Petry, or as late as the trade deadline. Given how much time there is before that endpoint, the number of trade targets may grow and develop, or shrink, as the season progresses. A team could slip and decide to sell players to retool on the fly like the Washington Capitals unexpectedly did last deadline. Or those with expiring deals could get extended to take them out of the mix, entirely.
Advertisement
But as everything stands, there’s a handful of players who already stick out as potential trade targets from now until deadline day.
William Nylander
Until an extension is inked, Nylander is a player to watch in Toronto. The Maple Leafs have a bigger fish to fry first in Auston Matthews. His contract is going to set the tone on the future of the team’s salary cap, so Nylander’s probably can’t be discussed until that’s settled.
Management probably doesn’t want to trade Nylander because he’s such a high-caliber forward. But if the cap isn’t there for someone who could push up to the $9 million range, or the dynamic of a team that keeps falling short of its high expectations can’t take a step forward, maybe a drastic change is made.
Extend him?
Trade him?
Do…nothing?The William Nylander crossroads: Which direction will the Leafs turn this summer? https://t.co/1i9EVN6fq3
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) June 22, 2023
The other wrinkle in this situation, which could add pressure to it, is that general manager Brad Treliving knows the risk of waiting until after the season to work with a big free agent. Johnny Gaudreau, who is represented by the same agent as Nylander in Lewis Gross, walked from Calgary and left the general manager with the impossible task of finding a direct replacement. So that’s another risk to factor in as the situation progresses between now and the deadline. Nylander’s someone the team can’t afford to lose without a high return like they can with some of their other pending UFAs, like Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, who could essentially be viewed as rentals for the year.
Connor Hellebuyck
When last season ended for the Winnipeg Jets, Hellebuyck made it clear that he didn’t want to be a part of a rebuild in Winnipeg if that was the direction the club was taking. So that likely means that the Jets will trade their backbone ahead of the deadline, to avoid him walking for nothing — as long as a trade materializes.
Advertisement
It’s possible that Hellebuyck is moved before the season begins. There are teams that appear to be fits for the goalie, but some may feel they don’t need to invest in a true number one goaltender after the Vegas Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup win. While that’s true for teams constructed as well as Vegas in front of the net, it’s not for all so there should still be some contenders between now and March for him. The other red flag that may hold back a deal is the cost of his next contract. Hellebuyck will likely be looking for a hefty raise, and there’s rightfully some skepticism to signing any goaltender to a deal of that potential magnitude — even more so one who will be 31 when it kicks in.
Mark Scheifele
After Hellebuyck, the next biggest decision likely surrounds Scheifele who will also be a UFA next summer. While his departure won’t be as back-breaking for the Jets as the goaltender could be, it will still be significant. So management should be trying to maximize a return if an extension isn’t in the cards — whether Scheifele intends to test free agency or the team doesn’t feel he’s a part of a retooled Jets squad.
Scheifele has offensive strengths but obvious downsides both in his own zone and in the accountability department which hurt his trade value. Those drawbacks may give teams pause on paying to acquire him for a year and even more so as a long-term option with his next deal in mind. But there’s a handful of teams who still need help down the middle, including Boston and Minnesota, that could inquire about Scheifele, even as a one-year rental. A market should be there if the Jets actively look to deal Scheifele in the weeks and months leading up to the deadline.
John Gibson
There are rightfully concerns about Gibson’s game after falling below average relative to his workload in the last four straight seasons. But if a trade with interest can isolate Gibson’s play, versus the historically bad defensive team in front of him, the goalie can finally get a change of scenery to a more competitive team.
The goalie market may depend on what happens with Hellebuyck, and Gibson becomes a domino to fall afterward. While there’s less certainty on his game, compared to Hellebuyck, there is actual cost certainty since he’s signed for another four years at $6.4 million. If the Anaheim Ducks’ ask isn’t astronomical, there are teams who could take a leap on someone who used to be thought of as a high-caliber number one.
Advertisement
Brett Pesce
If the Hurricanes and Pesce don’t have an extension in place for 2024 and beyond by the season’s start, the defenseman may be playing in a new sweater come opening night. Carolina probably doesn’t want to trade one of its mainstay defensemen, but the Hurricanes have such a strong system in place that they may feel comfortable interchanging anyone outside of their number one if his next contract ask is too high.
Pesce’s not the only pending UFA on that blue line or even that defensive pair. So it’s possible that one of him or Brady Skjei finds himself truly on the trade market ahead of their contracts expiring. While Pesce isn’t the flashiest, the defensive defenseman absolutely has value. The risk surrounds his injury history and questions on how he’ll perform outside of a team like the Canes.
Noah Hanifin
With the Karlsson trade complete, teams who couldn’t afford the elite offensive defenseman that still want a spark from the blue line could look to Hanifin.
Erik Karlsson is off the market. So, what does that mean for Noah Hanifin? Does it open the door for him to be traded? @TheAthleticNHLhttps://t.co/ElDvINU7IA
— Julian McKenzie (@jkamckenzie) August 8, 2023
What works in the Flames’ favor is that he’s only 26 and has a very reasonable $4.95 million cap hit for the year, and that should attract teams around the league. With salary retention, there are definitely contenders who could swing that cost before the cap increases next year. Unless he takes a giant leap this year, his next contract could be pretty reasonable as well for those looking for more than just one year of Hanifin. One element to maximize the return, though, is factoring where Hanifin wants to play next — that likely means taking Canadian teams out of the running.
Elias Lindholm
Hanifin’s one of three 2024 UFAs the Calgary Flames have to manage. Already, Tyler Toffoli was dealt to the New Jersey Devils. The big question is who, if anyone, comes next between Hanifin, Lindholm, and Mikael Backlund.
Of the three, Lindholm probably brings back the highest return. He’s a top-six center who can be relied on in all situations, on both ends of the ice, with a strong finishing touch. Like Hanifin, his cap hit for this upcoming season is manageable as it is and is one almost any team could absorb with retention. Unlike the defenseman, his next deal is probably going to be more costly — potentially somewhere in the $8 million range, like Dylan Larkin, Mika Zibanejad and Horvat.
If Lindholm makes it clear that he doesn’t want to extend in Calgary, it’s in management’s best interest to move on from the center and start looking ahead after so many changes in recent years. There are a number of teams who should be interested if he becomes available officially.
Nick Schmaltz
Schmaltz’s name has been featured in trade speculation before and that could continue. Considering Arizona’s past efforts to cut salary, it also would make sense for the team to pursue a trade sooner than later. In this back-loaded contract, Schmaltz’s actual salary will rise to $7.50 million this year, $6.95 million next and $8.5 million in the final year. A big market team can sweat the extra actual costs since his cap hit will be less at $5.85 million a year. That’s not going to be easy for any team to absorb, but his level of play makes him worth it.
So while there isn’t a rush to move Schmaltz, who has three years left on his deal, if the Arizona Coyotes keep up their cost-cutting ways, there may be pressure to make a deal. Lucky for them, his value is high after scoring at the second-best rate of his career (behind only 2021-22), despite his surroundings.
Advertisement
Jason Zucker
Arizona almost certainly won’t be playoff-bound next year, which could put every pending UFA who isn’t a part of the long-term picture on the market. The Coyotes signed veterans like Zucker and Matt Dumba to one-year contracts that could be flipped closer to the deadline. If Zucker can stay healthy, he should perform well in a top-six role with the Coyotes to intrigue a playoff team looking for scoring support.
Tyson Barrie
After some big changes on the ice, behind the bench and in the front office, the Nashville Predators are going to be an interesting team to watch. With Juuse Saros in net, this team could be in the playoff bubble once again. But if they aren’t by the time spring rolls around, then they’ll likely make further tweaks to the roster to bring back returns that’ll help build this team back up in the long run. One of those tweaks would likely be moving Barrie, a pending UFA, to a team looking for scoring from the blue line and a power-play quarterback.
Alexander Barabanov
The San Jose Sharks weren’t particularly interested in moving Barabanov last year, but maybe that changes in the final year of his contract. Teams pay for players with the two-way upside and disruptive ability that someone like Barabanov can bring. Interest only heightens for players with as reasonable of a cap hit as his $2.5 million. Maybe he could be this year’s version of Blake Coleman at the deadline, or Ivan Barbashev, if San Jose is willing to move on from him. As much value as Barabanov brings to the Sharks lineup, his value is going to peak, and that doesn’t line up with their timeline. Considering some of the underwhelming returns on their bigger trade pieces, the Sharks are going to have to get aggressive eventually.
Nino Niederreiter
If the Jets aren’t in the playoff mix, which may be determined by how the Hellebuyck and Scheifele situations progress, the pending UFA probably gets moved to a team in the mix. The forechecking forward could add some versatility and a scoring touch to a playoff team, at a low cost.
Travis Konecny/Scott Laughton
If Konecny can replicate, or build on, his bounce-back year, there should be trade interest in the forward. That doesn’t mean he’s a slam dunk to move, though. He probably won’t be in his prime by the time the Philadelphia Flyers are competitive again, even on a new contract, he could still be a cost-effective supporting player when the time comes. The same is true with Laughton, who is more of a depth player on a contender. But his value extends past both ends of the ice and into the locker room, so it’s possible he sticks around too.
While the Flyers probably don’t want to move on from either of these forwards, the big picture is the priority so management will probably consider every option. So if competitors pursue these forwards enough, it’s possible that either, or both, could be moved for the right price to facilitate the rebuild.
Sam Reinhart/Sam Bennett
While the Florida Panthers will open up cap space after this upcoming season, it’s easy to see how it’ll shrink up once again. Brandon Montour’s up for a new contract in 2024, as is Gustav Forsling. Aaron Ekblad is a UFA another year later. Plus, there’s just one year left on Anton Lundell’s entry-level contract. That may force tough decisions elsewhere. Obviously, the priority should be finding a way to make their goalie picture less expensive, but that’s no easy task so cuts may have to come up front instead. That could fall on one of their Sams — whether it’s 2024 UFA Reinhart, who will probably have a pricier next contract, or the gritty Bennett who has an extra year on his deal.
Advertisement
A Blues defenseman
Five St. Louis defensemen are protected by trade clauses (four outright no-trades and one modified clause). So management’s options are limited. But the season is approaching and this team doesn’t look much better from where it left off in 2022-23, putting it in its best interest to keep looking for ways to make a change on the backend. One trade attempt with Torey Krug already failed, but maybe there’s a crafty way to get out of the logjam between now and the deadline.
— Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, Dom Luszczyszyn, CapFriendly, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of William Nylander: Mark Blinch / NHLI via Getty Images)