NBA Draft 2023 best bets: Kobe Bufkin, Jaime Jaquez Jr., UConn duo and more

Happy NBA Draft week.

This year I’ve put together a list of my “best bets” in the draft. These are players I would bet on based on where they’re projected. I’m sticking to college prospects since that’s what I know best.

First-rounders/early second-rounders I’m higher on than most

Kobe Bufkin, Michigan sophomore guard

Bufkin has risen into lottery territory, so he’s probably no longer underrated, but he’s one of the young players I would be more comfortable betting on. He should be looked at through a one-and-done lens even though he spent two years in college. He is the next in a line of Michigan draft prospects who is young for his class. He arrived at Michigan as a 17-year-old and is now 19. He should have just completed his freshman year, so he’s the age equivalent of a one-and-done player. Franz Wagner and Caris LeVert were also 17 when they started college. Jordan Poole had just turned 18 at the start of his freshman year, and his freshman-to-sophomore leap was similar.

I’ve found that players who are young relative to their class have had a good success rate of making it in the NBA. Some players who were similarly young for their class as Bufkin in addition to Wagner and LeVert were Jimmy Butler, Kevin Huerter and Josh Richardson. All spent at least two years in college.

Bufkin battled to just be part of the rotation as a freshman and then really took off after an OK start to his sophomore season. From Dec. 8 on, he averaged 15.4 points with 51.0/40.2/83.5 shooting splits.

Michigan used him in a lot of actions similar to ones run in the NBA. He regularly came off zoom actions and played out of pick-and-rolls. He gets his shoulders squared to the basket when he comes off screens or dribble-hand-offs and has his head up. He does a good job reading help defenders and knowing where to go with the ball.

What I like most about him is his ability to get to the basket and finish in traffic. He’s long (a 6-foot-7 3/4 wingspan) and gets the ball on the glass at the right time, either with one-handed finishes where he never has to touch the ball with his right hand or long finishes where he’ll extend the ball out away from reaching defenders.

I’m not completely sold on his shooting, but there’s hope. His ability to make shots off the bounce is impressive. He likes pulling up as he goes to his right, which keeps defenders honest, knowing he can go either direction. He has a high release, which will help him get his shot off against NBA defenders.

Bufkin’s path, from struggling to get on the floor as a freshman to blossoming into a star as a sophomore, could help him if he’s not ready to contribute right away. He already has been humbled and knows success isn’t always instant. I’m always a little apprehensive about a player who didn’t win in college — Michigan was an NIT team this year — but with his age, size and skills, he’d be a player I’d feel good gambling on where he’s projected in the middle of the first round.

Andre Jackson, UConn junior guard

The concern with Jackson is his jump shot. One scout told me recently he thinks it’s too broken to ever fix. While Jackson ideally would be able to knock down spot-up 3-pointers, I’m not sure it’s necessary for him to become a productive contributor.

We just watched Christian Braun make a real impact with the Denver Nuggets, and he did so not making one 3-pointer in Denver’s final three series. What Braun did was guard, compete like crazy, rebound and make timely cuts. What the Nuggets loved about him was he had always won.

Similar to Braun, Jackson is crazy competitive, and that was obvious during UConn’s run to a title. He did not care about his stats or making sure he looked good for scouts. He figured out midseason that he could help UConn’s offense without shooting, and he figured out how to use defenses ignoring him on the perimeter against them. The way he plays offensively is similar to Draymond Green, using dribble-hand-offs to set up his teammates.

He’s a good cutter who can make quick decisions with the ball. He’s one of the best passers in this class and thrives in transition. He has another gear in the open court and is always looking to push.

The emotional maturity it took for him to figure out what defenses were doing and help UConn turn around its season in January is something that would get my attention if I were an NBA decision-maker. Players who will do anything it takes to win are ones coaches trust. Jackson has elite twitchiness and the strength to guard up and be switchable defensively. One coach who went up against Jackson says he sees a lot of similarities with Bruce Brown. “And he’s about to get a big bag,” the coach said. A lot of teams are regretting not chasing after Brown when he was available last summer. The same eventually could be true for those who pass on Jackson because they worried about his shooting.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA senior guard

If Jaquez was two or three years younger and his outside shooting numbers were better, he probably would be a lottery pick. I can understand why his shooting numbers — just a 32.9 percent career 3-point shooter — and his lack of twitchiness as an athlete probably drop him a few tiers in this draft. But I also think Nikola Jokic should teach talent evaluators some lessons. I’m not saying Jaquez is Jokic, but he probably has the best hand-eye coordination of anyone in this draft, his feel for the game is up there, and, like Jokic, he has great spacial awareness. Those talents can make up for not being the quickest athlete.

Jaquez was an isolation scorer at UCLA, and it’s not likely he’ll have the ball in his hands as much in the NBA. But if I were betting on players who are able to have a chance to start right away, he’d be high on the list.  He has great size (measured 6-6 without shoes) and a 6-10 wingspan, and he’s the type of wing who can guard multiple positions. He would benefit from improving his outside shot. The mechanics look good, but he shoots a flatter ball and has some bad misses, but there’s hope a few tweaks and years of repetition might eventually get him there. He did make 39.4 percent of his 3s as a sophomore when he was a lower-usage player. If he can just get to be an average shooter, he would benefit because the real magic happens when he puts the ball on the floor. His ability to play off the catch in long closeout situations is where he could be special in the NBA. He’s always under control, and even if a defender doesn’t close hard, Jaquez is going to get an advantage by attacking his man’s hips and making the right read when the help comes.

His passing is what excites me the most. He received so much defensive attention in college that he learned how to read where the help was coming from, and he has the size and skill to deliver dimes like this one:

His handle is also excellent, especially for a player his size. He’s not going to blow by his defender, but he’s always a threat to get to either hand going downhill and loves utilizing his spin move to generate space.

It’s rare to see a player entering the league with his level of skill and strength. He plays physically and just knows where to be on the floor. I’m not as high on his defense, but he understands how to play team defense and made the Pac-12 All-Defensive team twice. Since I’ve already dropped Jokic in this breakdown, I have one other comparison that I realize is a bit hyperbolic, but there are some similarities in their game: Paul Pierce. Both have old-men games. Both move at their speed and are better athletes than you think because of this. Pierce is another player who was overlooked in the draft once upon a time whose 3-point shooting numbers weren’t awesome in college but improved in the NBA. Again, I’d feel better about Jaquez if he had shown improvements in his shooting, but he has enough to his game that he could still be a productive NBA player even if he’s just a slightly below-average shooter.

Jordan Hawkins, UConn sophomore guard

One of the hardest skill sets to find in basketball is an elite shooter who can shoot off the move. A lot of players can make a spot-up shot, but few are capable of flying off a pin-down or a stagger or a zoom action and knocking down a shot off a full sprint. That puts a ton of pressure on a defense to account for someone capable of knocking down those shots, and Hawkins is one of the best prospects in this area in recent memory. Connecticut basically built an entire offense around his shooting this past season, and his gravity generates easy baskets for teammates.

Hawkins has the stamina to be in constant movement, and his mechanics are perfect. He gets the shoulders quickly turned and squared and the release is quick.

His skinny frame is a concern. You can bet teams are going to hunt him on defense. But his skill set is such a rarity, reminiscent of former UConn guard Richard Hamilton, that I feel good he’s going to find a place in the NBA.

Marcus Sasser, Houston senior guard

Before Sasser got hurt in the AAC tournament, he was on an eight-game run during which he averaged 21.8 points and was shooting 44.4 percent from 3-point range. When he gets hot and in a groove, no other college player in this class cooks like he can. He could be that microwave man off the bench who is always so valuable in the NBA.

The reason to believe it’ll translate is Sasser’s ability to shake defenders to get his shot. He’s not someone who uses his wiggle to get to the basket. He improved on that during his career, but he’s mostly shaking defenders to get to his jumper. He also can be an elite floor-spacer as a catch-and-shoot weapon. He knocked down 45.2 percent of those shots this past season, per Synergy. So while he’s capable of being an on-ball scorer, he doesn’t need the ball to be effective.

The creativity to get off shots is also there. He doesn’t have blow-by speed, but he just figures out a way with a really tight handle and exceptional footwork. Simply look at this:

.@m_sasser0 is UNREAL! 🤯😳#GoCoogs pic.twitter.com/1ciFUSuIzO

— Houston Men's Hoops 🏀 🐾 (@UHCougarMBK) February 6, 2023

Who even thinks to try that in a game?! Sasser’s belief in himself and shot-making are going to give him a shot. The fact that he was so efficient — a 123.4 offensive rating — while taking a higher-degree-of-difficulty level of shots fairly consistently is pretty promising. He also comes from a program where teams know they’re getting someone who is tough and knows how to win. Had he been healthy in the NCAA Tournament and Houston went on a longer run, he probably would have seen his stock rise a little higher than it is now. As a late first-rounder or early second-rounder, I love what I’m potentially getting in Sasser.

Second-round picks/two-way candidates I would gamble on

Sir’Jabari Rice, Texas senior guard

Rice was so far off the radar a year ago that Texas assistant Bob Donewald Jr. was skeptical when a buddy suggested Texas take a look at him in the transfer portal. Sam Vecenie and I didn’t even rank him in our portal rankings, which was a major oversight, but he was easy to miss because his numbers didn’t really pop coming from the WAC. Had he transferred after his sophomore or junior seasons, we probably would have taken a look. But his numbers slipped a tad as a senior at New Mexico State because he willingly sacrificed shots to Teddy Allen.

Here’s where Donewald fell in love with him and the story that encompasses who Rice is. When Donewald called and told him Texas was going to recruit him to come off the bench, Rice responded: “Coach, I don’t care if I start or not, but you’re gonna have me on the floor at the end of the game if you want to win.”

This is evident in the way Rice plays. He doesn’t need a lot of shots or to touch the ball often. He’s just going to make winning plays. He came off the bench for Texas, as promised, but I would argue he was the best player on a team that was a couple of possessions away from making the Final Four.

Rice is a six-year college player but it’s still worth betting on his upside. He didn’t start playing organized basketball until his sophomore year of high school, and he’s really only embraced working on his body in the past year.

Unlike most college players, he’s not really going to have to adjust his role in the NBA from the one he played in college. So much of the game for NBA role perimeter players is spotting up beyond the arc and playing defense, and this was basically all Rice was asked to do at Texas.

The most recognizable part of his game is his shot fake. It’s elite. He scored 46 baskets that were set up by his shot fake this past season.

He’s a good shooter — 37.1 percent from 3 — but that shot fake makes him a lethal weapon against closeouts. It messes with defenders so much that they’re hesitant to close hard and that allowed him to get easier spot-up 3s.

Rice is in that category of competitive players who end up making in the NBA from being agitators. Think Patrick Beverley. While Rice is thin, he’s wiry strong. He has long arms (6-9 wingspan) and is going to contest everything on defense. He’s short for a 3-and-D wing at just 6-4, but his long arms allow him to play slightly taller. He’s going to defend, shoot open 3s or attack closeouts to generate a better shot. He’s the perfect low-maintenance role player. Teams would rather have him on their roster than play against him.

Jordan Miller, Miami senior guard

I have a theory that if teams can draft talented players with a combination of personality and maturity, the success rate is going to be extremely high. Obviously, nothing trumps basketball ability, but some of my favorite interviews in the past with players who come off as engaging adults is a list of players who have succeeded in the league. The list: Georges Niang, Fred VanVleet, Malcolm Brogdon, Devonte’ Graham, Desmond Bane and Tyrese Haliburton.

The player I interviewed this season who fits in that category is Miller. (Baylor’s Adam Flagler is an honorable mention and worth considering as well.)

Miller plays with maturity, understanding who he is and never forcing anything. It’s why he’s such an efficient player. Miller had the second-highest offensive rating (127.2) among players with a realistic shot at getting drafted in this class, behind only Dereck Lively II, who scored a majority of his points on dunks. Miller is a slithery driver who always finds a way to get to his left hand and his long arms (a 6-11 3/4 wingspan) help him finish around the rim against length.

Miller scores most of his points in the paint, making 151 shots at the rim this past season at a 66.5 percent clip, per Synergy. He doesn’t have to get all the way to the rim to score as he’s able to stop in the lane and throw in leaners. He’s slender but not afraid of contact and will throw his shoulder into a bigger defender’s chest to generate just enough space to get his shot off. I love that he sticks to his strengths and teams don’t have to worry about him taking bad shots.

Miller can knock down corner 3s, and while that’s not his strength, he’s at least a respectable enough shooter that teams simply can’t leave him open. Considering he’s a player who will come off the board late in the draft or possibly go undrafted, he’s a player worth taking a flier on because he’ll be a positive in the locker room, and that combination of length and finishing ability is intriguing.

Hunter Tyson, Clemson senior forward

Tyson is the type of experienced player who you can picture playing in a playoff game right now. He’s one of the best shooters in the draft. His release is quick, compact and high, and the shooting alone at 6-8 is going to give him a chance. He proved he could shoot the ball with range and made 40.5 percent of his 3s this past season. He primarily will be a floor spacer in the NBA, but he can shoot off the move and knows how to get himself open. He shot 47.7 percent coming off screens, per Synergy. If you run him off the line, he’s good at knocking down the side-step 3 or hitting a one or two-dribble pull-up.

Tyson was skinny when he arrived at Clemson, but he really worked on his body, and that helped him be able to finish around the basket and battle bigger players defensively. He shot 73.5 percent at the rim, per Synergy. That’s outstanding for a wing player. He showed the ability to guard perimeter players and big men. He understands how to play team defense and communicates on that end. He slides his feet well for his size and really does a good job closing out, using his length to challenge jumpers. It’s rare to see him get blown by, although on-ball defense probably will be his biggest challenge going up a level. He’s also an excellent defensive rebounder, ranking 28th nationally in defensive rebounding rate.

Offensively, he understands spacing and moves well without the ball. He’ll know when to cut when his defender loses sight of him. He’s a ball-mover and plays mostly mistake-free basketball. He went from a bench player his first three years, to finally becoming a starter as a senior and then breaking his collarbone, to making first-team All-ACC as a fifth-year player. That commitment to improvement, patience to wait his turn and ability to deal with adversity is something NBA teams should value. So you’re getting one of the best shooters in the draft who is 6-8, smart, a solid team defender and has a history of putting in the work to earn his opportunity. That’s someone I’d bet on having a chance to make a rotation and contribute to winning.

GO DEEPER

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(Photo of Kobe Bufkin: Melissa Tamez / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)