Bullpen report: Liam Hendriks, Andrés Muñoz lead an army of returning high-leverage relievers

Encapsulating how the high-leverage landscape shifts every week remains difficult. With just over one-third of the 2023 season in the rearview mirror, more changes lie on the horizon. Since our last post, cancer survivor Liam Hendriks collected his first win of the season, on National Cancer Survivor Day, in one of the most serendipitous moments in sports (and he’s also secured his first save). Although the White Sox remain patient, easing him back atop the bullpen hierarchy, he’s firmly affixed in their leverage ladder.

However, he’s not the only high-leverage reliever of interest from a fantasy standpoint. Miami activated A.J. Puk, Seattle returned Andrés Muñoz from his rehab assignment and Philadelphia intimated it will recall José Alvarado from his minor league rehab stint for their weekend series against the Dodgers. During his first outing back, Puk gave up a hit, while recording all three outs via strikeout against Kansas City, throwing 14 pitches (13 strikes) generating six whiffs (42.9 swinging strike rate). Muñoz fired a clean eighth inning versus San Diego, recording two strikeouts with his velocity intact, maxing out at 100.2 m.p.h.

Situations in flux will be covered in our closer concerns rundown later in this post. Noting bullpen hierarchies rarely remain static, not only do the relievers listed in our high-leverage pathways change, team concept pathways towards them also must adapt . Our updated rating system uses one of these four descriptors, along with identifying the relievers in the mix for save chances:

Mostly Linear: A more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There’s shades of gray. For instance, if the Yankees face a team with their best pocket of right-handed hitters lining up for the eighth inning, Clay Holmes may be called upon, since it represents the highest-leveraged moment in the contest.
Primary Save Share: Team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves, but he will also be used in match-ups based situations, whether dictated by handedness or batting order pocket in the late innings, which provides more than one reliever save chances each series or week throughout the season.
Shared Saves: Usually two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness or rest or recent usage patterns keeping them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. One reliever may eventually emerge, so this can be fluid.
Match-ups Based: This approach features multiple relievers, usually between two-to-four, facing pre-set lineup pockets, based on their strengths and weaknesses in each series. A primary save share may emerge, but he’s not working exclusively in the ninth inning, unless usage patterns change during the year. Based on performance or necessitated by injury issues.

Those in leagues that use SOLDS (saves plus holds) or holds as a separate category should target relievers in the stopper/HLR (highest leveraged reliever) or stealth labels on teams with winning records on stream favorable match-ups on a weekly basis.

American League High-Leverage Pathways

National League High-Leverage Pathways

Game-Finished Percentages and Save Shares (Updated Charts)

Charts updated with results through June 8

With many team situations stabilizing, it’s streamlined this process. Since there are a multitude of relievers back from early season injuries, their results may alter based on time missed, which will provide a clearer snapshot of who receives the most chances at the end of contests for their respective teams. For now, here’s our updated chart displaying relievers who possess a games-finished percentage of 70 percent or better, with a save share of at least 60 percent and a K-BB percentage above 20 percent:

Because many teams deploy match-ups based save situations, this chart reduces the games-finished percentage by 10 points, with the same criteria for the other two categories in this exercise:

Games-Finished Leaders through June 8:

Emmanuel Clase (CLE) - 28
Camilo Doval (SFG) - 25
Félix Bautista (BAL) - 24
Carlos Estévez (LAA) - 22
Ryan Pressly (HOU) - 22
Four tied with 21

Relievers on the Rise

Félix Bautista (BAL): A frequent member of this list, “The Mountain”, has not only converted his last four save chances, he’s recorded 12 strikeouts against one walk (64.7 K-BB percentage) with an eye-popping 30.6 swinging strike percentage. He’s racked up three strikeouts in three of these five appearances.
David Bednar (PIT): Although his save totals have been streaky, he’s amidst a modest six-game scoreless streak, converting all four save chances, including three in three days last weekend during a sweep of the Cardinals.
Alexis Díaz (CIN): Since August 27, 2022, he’s converted 19 straight saves through 37 appearances with a 62:21 K:BB (27.2 K-BB percentage), 0.90 WHIP, 2.69 SIERA and 15.4 swinging strike rate. He also owns an eight-game scoreless streak with 15 strikeouts against his last 33 batters faced (45.5 strikeout percentage).
Erik Swanson (TOR): He’s not only turned in five holds during his six-game scoreless stretch, he also notched an ancillary save, filling affably for Jordan Romano, receiving a much deserved day off on June third. As for Swanson, he leads the majors with 15 holds and emerged as a trusted high-leverage option.
Craig Kimbrel (PHI): He’s been scoreless in five of his last six outings, with a win and four saves, while posting seven strikeouts against one walk. After some struggles early on, he’s rebounded with nine saves, in as many opportunities, and will remain a high-leverage factor in this bullpen moving forward.

“Closer” Concerns (Team Version)

Los Angeles Dodgers: Although the bridge innings feature varied relievers, the high-leverage events have featured a triumvirate of pitchers: Evan Phillips, Caleb Ferguson and Brusdar Graterol. However, they’ve provided uneven results over the last 30 days, including consecutive walk-off losses in Cincinnati. Through June 7, the team owns a 6-8 record in one-run contests (.429 winning percentage) and a past strength feels like a bit of an Achilles heel right now. Because of time constraints, the Win Probability Chart courtesy of Fangraphs does not include the most recent loss by Phillips, but displays the leverage ladder’s recent struggles:
Chicago Cubs: Mining saves from this bullpen remains difficult, from an approach and a volume standpoint. Over the last 30 days, there’s only been three saves by a Cubs reliever, two by Mark Leiter Jr. and one by Adbert Alzolay. When a mostly left-handed hitting pocket lines up for the ninth inning, it’s Leiter Jr. receiving the high-leverage opportunity while Alzolay either faces the toughest right-handed hitter pockets or multiple-inning save chances. However, Bednar above recorded as many saves last weekend as this unit for a 30-game sample. Less than optimal.
Seattle Mariners: Do not overreact with this bullpen appearing in the concerned portion of the post, it’s more about how roles will evolve with Andrés Muñoz back in the high-leverage picture. Paul Sewald has converted 12 of 13 save chances this year, but mostly with Muñoz sidelined. If the second half of last year provides some insight, Sewald recorded 16 games-finished over 28 appearances (57.1 GF percentage) with eight saves, four holds, three blown saves and a 19:9 K:BB in 27.1 innings. Muñoz finished with seven games-finished through 28 contests (25 GF percentage) with 39 strikeouts against six walks, three saves, 11 holds and two blown saves in 28 innings. For now, plan on the younger, higher-octane arm operating as the HLR (highest-leveraged reliever) picking up ancillary saves when match-ups fall his way and Sewald remaining the primary save share, just with fewer opportunities overall.
Colorado Rockies: After recording back-to-back saves last week, Justin Lawrence was deployed as the HLR during a loss against San Francisco on Wednesday evening. Recent usage patterns have adjusted the team’s listing in our high-leverage pathways, and the talented reliever should accrue more save chances going forward, but he will still appear in games at the most pivotal moments, which may cap his save totals going forward, unless Bud Black defines his role. Those with Pierce Johnson on their roster may still get saves, as long as his WHIP remains palatable.

Saves Stash List

Scott McGough (ARI): Even though he’s setting up a shared leverage pathway, he’s arguably been the team’s best reliever over the last two weeks. He owns an eight game scoreless streak, spanning 10.2 innings with a 16:4 K:BB and a 0.56 WHIP. It may take another week or two, but save chances could start accumulating soon.
Codi Heuer (CHC): Perhaps the team needs a stable force atop the hierarchy and it will help roles become more defined? Currently on rehab at Triple-A from Tommy John surgery, he’s been pitching well and fired a clean outing his last time out:

Codi Heuer works a 1-2-3 inning. Only 8 pitches, and gets a strikeout. pic.twitter.com/IUhDFk59xY

— Greg Huss (@OutOfTheVines) June 7, 2023
Daniel Hudson (LAD): Working his way from a knee injury, he could return by last June or early July, providing another late-inning option on a team in desperate need for it. As a Dodger, he owns a 74:23 K:BB with a 1.109 WHIP over 65 games, spanning 70.1 innings with 19 games-finished and five saves. For those looking for saves down the road, the stash window remains open, until he returns and records one. Here’s a note about his first outing, note he only posted one strikeout:

Dodgers RHP Daniel Hudson started a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League tonight with a 1-2-3 first inning.

Called strikeouts, groundout, flyout

— Eric Stephen (@ericstephen) June 7, 2023
Jordan Hicks (STL): It may only be of the ancillary variety, but he’s turned the corner in recent outcomes with much improved command. Currently riding a 10-game scoreless streak, he’s recorded 18 strikeouts against four walks over his last 12.1 innings with four multiple-inning outings among them.