“The descent to the Underworld is easy. Night and day the gates of shadowy Death stand open wide, but to retrace your steps, to climb back to the upper air — there the struggle, there the labor lies.”
— “The Aeneid,” Virgil
As Pete Alonso stretched to complete the 6-4-3 double play and the weekend sweep, Francisco Lindor reared back and yelled to the skies. In five games over five days, the Mets have turned their season around.
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New York’s five-game winning streak has it back on the right side of .500, back in playoff position, if the postseason were to commence Monday. That makes this a good time to step back and take a look at the broader picture for the Mets. Forty-eight games in, one way of discerning how individuals and the team have played is by looking at what they’re on pace to do. What comes off as sustainable, and what comes off as an outlier?
Alonso is on pace for 57 home runs and 138 RBIs.
Alonso’s homer streak may have ended Sunday, but these would both be team records, obviously. Alonso would be the 10th National Leaguer to hit as many as 57 homers. Giancarlo Stanton was the last with 59 in 2017.
The 138 RBIs would be the most in the NL since Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard in 2009 (141).
Lindor is on pace for 51 doubles.
What a strange season it’s been for Lindor. Overall, his offense has been a disappointment, with a .239 average and an OPS down nearly 50 points from last year. But he’s on pace for another 100-RBI season and for these 51 doubles, which would beat out Bernard Gilkey’s franchise record (44 in 1996) and be the most by any National Leaguer since 2014. (I’ll give you 1,000 guesses at who had 53 that season.)
The Mets are on pace for 699 runs.
New York scored 772 last season. The last National League team to make the postseason scoring fewer than 700 runs was the 2016 Mets. Three AL teams last year scored under 700: Cleveland, Seattle and Tampa Bay.
(Your hint is that it was a catcher.)
Daniel Vogelbach is on pace for seven home runs.
The Mets acquired Vogelbach last July not just because of his on-base ability but also because he had flashed power potential in the past. (“Great on-base percentage, great power,” Billy Eppler said that day.) He hit 30 home runs in 2019, though to be fair, most of you have a cousin who hit 30 homers in 2019.
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But Vogelbach has gone deep just twice this season, continuing a power void for Mets designated hitters that dates back to last season. Since the DH came to the National League for good last year, only the Cubs and Nationals have gotten fewer homers from that position in the NL than the Mets. And New York’s 24 long balls from DHs? Eight of them have come from Alonso or Lindor — guys who would have been in the lineup anyway.
(Your second hint is that he played in the NL Central.)
Starling Marte is on pace for 21 extra-base hits.
Before his game-winning home run Sunday afternoon, Marte hadn’t collected an extra-base hit since April 14. The hope is that the neck injury he suffered that week in April is what hindered his pop at the plate, since he had 45 extra-base hits a year ago.
(Your third hint is that he finished fourth in MVP voting that season — and never got an MVP vote any other year.)
Mark Canha is on pace for 10 hits by pitch.
Canha was hit by a club-record 28 pitches last season; that well has dried up this year. That change in HBP rate is on pace to cost Canha 34 points in on-base percentage this season.
The Mets as a whole still lead the league in HBP, but their pace is down from their league-record 112 last season to merely 95. That would cost them about three points of OBP as a team over a full season.
Kodai Senga is on pace for 88 walks and 17 wild pitches — and just under 200 strikeouts.
No Mets pitcher has walked 80 or more hitters since Oliver Pérez crossed the century mark in 2008. The 17 wild pitches would tie David Cone (1991) for the second-most in team history, one behind Jack Hamilton (1966). The 188 strikeouts Senga is on pace for would be the second-most ever by a Mets rookie, behind only Dwight Gooden’s 276 in 1984.
(Striking out 276 batters as a 19-year-old in 1984 is impossible, by the way. The league strikeout rate was 14.8 percent; Gooden’s was 31.4 percent. This year, the league strikeout rate is 22.7 percent; Senga’s rate is 29.4.)
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How many Mets starters are on pace to qualify for the ERA title? Zero.
Tylor Megill is on pace to lead the Mets with 155 2/3 innings. That would be the fewest for New York’s leader in any 162-game season, besting only the 105-game Mets of 1981 and the 60-game Mets of 2020. Even the 113-game Mets of 1994 had two pitchers eclipse Megill’s projected total.
The previous low for the Mets’ team leader in innings in a 162-game season is Ray Burris’ 170 1/3 in 1980. The good news is Burris delivered a gem in the deciding game of the NLCS one season later. The bad news is it wasn’t for the Mets, and his team lost anyway.
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are on pace for 38 starts combined.
While 60 was the ideal figure here, the Mets probably would have taken 50 at the start of the season. They can still get to that number if Scherzer and Verlander remain healthy the rest of the way, but they’ve used up their margin of error.
Since Scherzer joined Verlander as a full-time starter in 2009, the two have averaged 60 starts per year between them in 162-game seasons. That includes 51 last season and 30 in 2021 — the only time they’ve ever combined for fewer than they’re on pace for this year. (Obviously, that was because of Verlander’s Tommy John surgery.)
The exposition
The Mets won both games of Sunday’s split doubleheader to sweep the weekend series from the Guardians and push their winning streak to five. It’s a significant about-face from the previous month of play, and it has New York back above .500 at 25-23, in second place in the National League East, five games behind Atlanta.
The Cubs dropped two of three to the Phillies to end a dreadful 2-7 road trip. Chicago is 6-16 in its last 22 — exactly what the Mets had done in their previous 22 games prior to Wednesday’s comeback against the Rays. The Cubs are 20-26, in fourth in the NL Central, five games behind Milwaukee.
The Rockies were swept in Texas, ending an uncharacteristic run of three straight road series wins. Colorado is back to 19-28 and last place in the National League West. The Rockies host the Marlins for four before the Mets arrive on Friday.
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The pitching possibles
at Chicago
RHP Tylor Megill (5-2, 3.88 ERA) vs. LHP Drew Smyly (4-1, 2.86 ERA)
RHP Kodai Senga (4-2, 3.77) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (3-4, 3.05)
RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 8.68) vs. RHP Jameson Taillon (0-3, 8.10)
at Colorado
RHP Max Scherzer (3-2, 4.01) vs. RHP Connor Seabold (1-1, 5.97)
RHP Justin Verlander (2-2, 3.60) vs. RHP Chase Anderson (0-0, 0.00)
RHP Tylor Megill vs. LHP Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.70)
What can we learn about the Mets this week?
Can they take this show on the road? I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the atmosphere at Citi Field was beneficial for New York in its comeback victories this past homestand. Can they take series from two sub-.500 teams on the road? They haven’t done that of late.
Recent series history
The Mets went 3-4 against the Cubs last season — the fifth straight season Chicago took the season series. The Mets did take three out of four at Wrigley Field last July; that was their first series win on the North Side since 2013.
In the National League, only Los Angeles and Atlanta have been tougher road cities for the Mets in their history than Denver, where they own a .411 winning percentage over 107 total meetings in the Mile High City. It’s ironic because the Mets generally own the Rockies in Queens. That wasn’t the case earlier this month when Colorado took two of three at Citi Field. The Mets have won their last three series at Coors Field.
Three questions with a beat writer
Let’s chat with Patrick Mooney, who covers the Cubs for The Athletic. Read Patrick on Pete Crow-Armstrong.
There are quite a few Cubs having better seasons than I’d have expected — Patrick Wisdom, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Justin Steele and Drew Smyly. Which surprisingly successful season so far is the most meaningful for Chicago’s plans?
Mooney: That’s the disappointing takeaway for this team after the first quarter of its season: The Cubs have hit on best-case scenarios for several key players and those strong individual performances have not come close to equaling a winning record so far. Wisdom will turn 32 this summer. Bellinger isn’t necessarily a building block, either, since he’s working on a one-year contract (and currently on the injured list with a left knee contusion), so his ultimate value could come as a trade chip at the deadline or in the form of a draft pick should he decline a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere. Suzuki’s numbers improved after a recent surge, but he began the season on the injured list and got off to a slow start. Steele’s gradual emergence as a front-line starting pitcher is the most important long-term development for an organization that has historically struggled to generate homegrown pitching talent. Steele was drafted in 2014, but he’s not positioned to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.
Matt Mervis is up. What should the Mets know about him?
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Mooney: Deep down, Cubs officials don’t really know what to expect from Mervis, 25, because of the unique path he took to Wrigley Field. After being a two-way college player and returning to Duke for his senior season, he was not chosen in the 2020 draft that had been chopped down to five rounds during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Cubs made him a priority free agent and watched him burst onto the scene last year when he posted 36 homers and 119 RBIs at three minor-league affiliates. Cubs fans were clamoring for Mervis, who made his major-league debut on May 5. Mervis has big left-handed power and a good opportunity in front of him, but he’s still adjusting to major-league pitching (.547 OPS).
Does the Cardinals’ poor start, making the NL Central look even more wide open, change the Cubs’ perspective on contending this season?
Mooney: The Cubs have to operate under the assumption that the Cardinals are going to be good every year. The Cubs believed they constructed a roster that could compete every night by assembling a reliable starting rotation, raising the floor of their group of position players and restructuring the bullpen again. The Cubs are 2-10 in one-run games, increasing the pressure on David Ross’ coaching staff, Jed Hoyer’s front office and a clubhouse with a lot of experienced players. That’s what makes this such a missed opportunity for a team that had a winning April and a substantial run differential. It’s not just the Cardinals. The Mets, Phillies and Padres have all underperformed relative to preseason expectations, creating potential lanes into the expanded playoff field.
Inside baseball
The Mets’ long stretch of games — 26 in 27 days were scheduled, they played 25 — came to an end with Sunday’s doubleheader. New York now has the next four Mondays off and won’t play more than six days in a row until the final week of June.
That changes how the Mets will align their rotation.
The stretch of Monday off days means the Mets will play exactly six days in a row each of the next three weeks. When a team plays six days in a row, only the pitcher who pitches the first of those games has to pitch the next one on regular, four days rest. The Mets have been trying to get extra days of rest for Senga (especially) and Verlander (when possible). So as long as neither of those guys is set to pitch the first game …
… oops. If the Mets stuck to their usual rotation, Senga would pitch Tuesday night in Chicago. But, because New York doesn’t want Senga to pitch on four days’ rest Sunday in Denver, the plan is to push Senga back to Wednesday with Megill starting Tuesday (and Sunday) on regular rest instead. Senga will have six days of rest between starts.
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The Mets could basically stick with that plan for the next several weeks, handing Senga the ball on four straight Wednesdays. They haven’t committed to it yet — why would a baseball team ever plan that far ahead? — but it’s on the table.
By the way, why do the Mets want to avoid using Senga on four days’ rest? Because he pitched once a week in Japan, and they feel the best way to ease his transition to the United States is to keep him closer to that schedule. (He is still pitching on one fewer day of rest here.) It’s possible they go the entire season without Senga pitching on four days’ rest. It’s also possible two weeks from now they try it out with him. They haven’t decided yet.
Injury updates
Player | Injury | Elig. | ETA |
|---|---|---|---|
Left ankle sprain | Now | 6. June | |
Dry eye syndrome | Now | 6. June | |
Left quad strain | 5/23 | 6. June | |
Right shoulder strain | 5/29 | 6. June | |
Medium to high grade calf strain | 6/5 | 6. June | |
Right thumb UCL strain | 6/16 | 6. June | |
Right lat strain | 5/29 | 7. July | |
Stress fracture in left ribcage | 5/29 | 7. July | |
High-grade right lat strain | 5/29 | 8. August | |
Torn patellar tendon in right knee | 5/29 | X. 2024 | |
Tommy John surgery | 5/29 | X. 2024 |
Red = 60-day IL; Orange = 15-day IL; Blue = 10-day IL; Gray = COVID IL
• On Saturday, José Quintana threw his first bullpen session since suffering his initial rib injury in March. Quintana is essentially undergoing what he called a “second spring training” over the next six weeks, with his target date remaining early in July.
• Omar Narváez should begin a rehab assignment by the end of this week. Narváez isn’t eligible to come off the IL until June 5, and he’s looking at making it back right around that date.
• Tomás Nido started his rehab assignment on Friday. Nido is trying out new contacts to deal with his dry eye syndrome, and it’s possible he doesn’t beat Narváez back. Nido’s 20-day rehab clock would run out on June 7.
• With his rehab clock running out for his return from back spasms, Tim Locastro suffered a new injury, spraining the ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb. It’s the same injury that knocked Brett Baty out of the final six weeks of last season. Locastro was moved to the 60-day injured list, and Buck Showalter said he’ll likely need surgery. That’s not a season-ender, though. Baty said in the spring that he would have been back, had the season extended much deeper into October, so Locastro could be ready by sometime in July. However unfortunate the injury, it does buy the Mets some time to figure out their roster and where Locastro could fit.
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• Jimmy Yacabonis started a rehab assignment on Tuesday. He could be back before the end of the month.
• None of Edwin Uceta, Elieser Hernández or Stephen Ridings have begun throwing in games yet, which pushes their potential returns back.
Minor-league schedule
Triple A: Syracuse vs. Louisville (Cincinnati)
Double A: Binghamton vs. Richmond (San Francisco)
High A: Brooklyn vs. Winston-Salem (Chicago, AL)
Single A: St. Lucie vs. Clearwater (Philadelphia)
Last week in Mets
- Alonso did a 360. The Mets have done a 180. From Friday’s frenzied victory
- With Zack Meisel, revisiting the January 2021 trade that brought the Mets Lindor and Carlos Carrasco
- From Zack, the key players reflect on the trade
- From Will Sammon, now that Mark Vientos is here, how can the Mets optimize their roster?
- The Mets entered Wednesday 20-23. They refused to turn the page to 2024. On a changing of the winds in a wild win
- With Will, a look at who’s next in the minors, including Ronny Mauricio and Mike Vasil
- From Will, Verlander’s Citi Field debut ended with boos. (More like a de-boo, amirite?)
- From Andy McCullough, is this mediocre malaise a sign of just who the Mets are?
- From Rustin Dodd and Jayson Jenks, joyous tales of Lima Time
- TWIM: David Peterson’s woes and a lineup that can’t hit homers. (Hey, things change in a week!)
A note on the epigraph
I did not find “The Aeneid” worth it, personally.
Prediction time
You did not guess Jonathan Lucroy.
(Top photo of Pete Alonso: Brad Penner / USA Today)