SEATTLE — When a team loses 7-2 and looks lifeless for most, if not all, of the game, it can be easy to fall into the trap of hyperbole. As coaches and players will correctly point out, one loss is still just one loss, no matter what it looked like. There are no style points in the NHL, for better or worse. The Stars will also point to how their 2-1 series deficit eerily mirrors what they faced just a couple of weeks ago against the Minnesota Wild, all the way through an uninspiring performance in Game 3. Dallas’ Game 3 loss in Minnesota was one of the worst games it played in weeks.
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The Stars’ Game 3 loss in Seattle was Jake Oettinger’s worst game of his NHL career. That’s not hyperbole. Statistically speaking, his .706 save percentage is the lowest he’s had in any NHL game, regular season or playoffs. In fact, it’s the second-worst pro game he’s had statistically if you loop in his AHL tenure as well, behind just an early February game in Rockford in 2020. That night, Oettinger played just over 18 minutes before he was pulled after allowing four goals on 10 shots. Sunday, Oettinger went two periods, allowing five goals on 17 shots — all goals allowed in the second period, including four in a seven-minute span — before being replaced by Scott Wedgewood to run out the final frame.
“We considered all options in the second period,” Stars head coach Pete DeBoer said. “It’s not like we were playing great and Jake was letting in goals. We weren’t very good in front of him, either. I didn’t feel that that would have been the appropriate — I didn’t want to make him the scapegoat for how our group was playing. We talked at the end of the second period (and) we decided that there was no benefit to having him go out there in the third and risk injury or waste energy. It was a chance to get Wedgewood a period of hockey. Hopefully, that helps him if we need him down the road here. Pretty easy decision after two (periods).”
DeBoer’s decision to not pull Oettinger would be a lot easier to scrutinize if some of the other developments in the game didn’t pan out the way they did. There is a perfectly legitimate argument to be made that Oettinger should have been pulled after the Kraken’s third goal to give the home team a 3-0 lead early in the second period. It wasn’t just the frequency of scores by Seattle; it was the type of goals the Kraken were scoring. The second and third goals, in particular, are goals that Oettinger should have stopped, and typically does. At that juncture, it was pretty clear that this wasn’t going to be his night.
While there was a case for pulling Oettinger after the third or fourth goal, there’s also precedent, as recently as a few days ago in Game 1, as to why it shouldn’t be surprising that DeBoer didn’t. In the first period of Game 1, the Kraken scored four goals in just over four minutes in the first period, including three goals in 52 seconds. It’s not a totally apples-to-apples comparison because most of those goals in Game 1 weren’t so flagrantly on Oettinger, as they were Sunday in Game 3, but it’s how the Stars have handled their starting netminder. In that case, Oettinger locked things down and didn’t allow a goal for 52 minutes, before a fluky one slipped by him in overtime. Oettinger rode that confidence into Game 2 and was in typical standout form.
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As DeBoer mentioned, the fact that the shoddy play leaked on from that third goal into a fourth and fifth made the decision very easy after two periods.
Precedent aside, another thing that makes the decision to not pull Oettinger less egregious is how the Stars played in front of him. Seattle dominated Dallas in the first period. The Kraken had a 9-4 edge in shots on goal and, according to Natural Stat Trick, a 66.56 save percentage, leaving the Stars at 33.44 percent. Oettinger had some good moments in the first period but was not his technically sound self then, either. The main reason the Kraken didn’t get on the board in the first was because of some self-inflicted near-misses.
“I didn’t love our first period, but we got through it,” DeBoer said. “The first goal, they grabbed that momentum and ran with it. We didn’t have a response, which was unfortunate.”
The Kraken’s first goal was an absolute gut punch for the Stars, and it had nothing to do with the scoreboard. Going down 1-0 isn’t ideal, but Miro Heiskanen remaining down on the ice for almost 30 seconds while being tended to by the medical staff was the worst-case scenario for Dallas.
Miro Heiskanen, stayed down about 30 seconds, straight down the tunnel pic.twitter.com/e6F26xmdq4
— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) May 8, 2023
“Obviously, didn’t come back (in the game),” DeBoer said. “Pretty bad cut. We’ll know more tomorrow. Obviously a big piece, but that’s not why we lost. That’s on our group. We should be able to handle that adversity and respond to that. They were the better team tonight, no ifs, ands or buts about that.”
Next man up is the right thing to say, but it feels more like lip service than anything else when it comes to Heiskanen. The 23-year-old defenseman is, fairly easily, the Stars’ best player. He is truly irreplaceable. Coming into Sunday’s action, Heiskanen led all players in total time on ice (238 minutes) and time on ice per game (29:45). He is literally on the ice for half of the game, including quarterbacking the top power-play unit and being one of the team’s best penalty killers. The five-goal loss would be nothing compared to Heiskanen’s absence, if that is the case.
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The television broadcast reported in the second period that Heiskanen would get stitched up and be ready to return. Stars PR officially ruled him out in the third period. After the game, DeBoer said there was no update on Heiskanen and he would be evaluated Monday.
“I think he would have liked to come back,” DeBoer said. “We talked about it. I think, for sure, the score played a part in that.”
The Stars weren’t playing well with Heiskanen, but they completely fell apart without him. Colin Miller replaced Heiskanen on the top power-play unit, leaving the second unit of Ryan Suter, Max Domi, Evgenii Dadonov, Wyatt Johnston and Tyler Seguin intact. In three power-play opportunities, the Stars didn’t score a goal and, to add insult to injury, the second unit gave up a short-handed tally.
“They came out and played hard tonight,” Stars captain Jamie Benn said. “We probably deserved what we got. They were the hungrier team. They executed and took advantage of their opportunities. … Other guys have to step up. Personally, I was probably one of our worst players. We’ll fix it. We’ll move on, have a quick memory and get ready for Game 4.”
Finally, Wedgewood didn’t exactly rescue things after coming in for Oettinger. The short-handed goal was an odd-man rush and the second goal Seattle scored on him was a power-play tally, so it doesn’t exactly fall on him. But even if Wedgewood replaces Oettinger as early as after the Kraken’s third goal, considering the loss of Heiskanen, the team’s overall play and Wedgewood’s need for support, the Stars had no chance at salvaging the game into anything but maybe a more respectable loss.
It’s worth reiterating that this was quite literally Oettinger’s worst performance as a pro, so that’s unlikely to happen again. It’s also worth noting that Oettinger has a history of bouncing back strong from bad performances and losses, which was evident as recently as Game 4 against the Wild and even Game 2 against the Kraken. Prior to Sunday, Oettinger had the highest save percentage in NHL postseason history (minimum 15 games) at .940. Until Oettinger gives a reason to, there’s no need to be worried about him.
“He’s a professional,” Benn said. “We didn’t really help him out, at all. He’ll be fine. He’ll bounce back. He’s a great goaltender and that’s what they do.”
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The same can’t be said about Heiskanen. If he’s out for any period of time, it’s not an overreaction to slam the panic button. Heiskanen means that much to the operation. The fact he was aching to return Thursday is a good sign, but his status will be worth monitoring leading up to Game 4.
Style points don’t matter; results do. On that end, the Stars are staring at a 2-1 deficit. As long as they have their best player in the loop, it’s not the worst position for them to be in.
“The good news is that it really mirrors our Game 3 in Minnesota,” DeBoer said. “We were in the exact same spot, played pretty much the exact same game and responded the right way in that series. We’ve got to make sure that happens here.”
(Photo of Jake Oettinger reacting after a goal by Carson Soucy of the Kraken during the second period Sunday: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)