NEW YORK – In 2013, Guggenheim Baseball Management’s first full season owning the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw was 25, Zack Greinke 29 and Hyun-Jin Ryu 26. Kershaw won the second of his three Cy Young awards that year. Greinke and Ryu made successful debuts with the team as free agents, and the Dodgers began their run of eight straight NL West titles and 10 straight postseason appearances.
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Steve Cohen’s idea with the Mets, from the start, was to follow the Dodgers model. Spend heavily in the early years, while improving the farm system to build a more cost-efficient contender long-term. Well, he’s spending heavily, a record $358 million in his third season as owner. But his farm system still ranks only 15th, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law. And the state of his rotation underscores the difficulty of what he is trying to accomplish.
Guggenheim inherited one future Hall of Famer, Kershaw, who had yet to reach his prime. They purchased another Cooperstown candidate, Greinke, when he became a free agent at an ideal age. The Mets, on the other hand, bought their two future Hall of Famers late in their careers, Max Scherzer when he was 37 and Justin Verlander when he was 40. No other member of their projected rotation for this season was in his 20s.
Scherzer, now 38, produced a better bottom line in his third start of the season Monday night, allowing only one hit in five shutout innings to lead the Mets to a 5-0 victory over the Padres. But he required 97 pitches to complete those five innings, walking three and eight times falling into 3-2 counts. It was not vintage Max. It also was not the guy who allowed three consecutive homers in his previous start against the Brewers. For Scherzer, that constituted progress.
“I’m not broken,” Scherzer said. “I wasn’t broken after the Milwaukee start. I didn’t have to reinvent the wheel. I just had to fine-tune some things.”
That process is ongoing, and all the more challenging for veteran pitchers like Scherzer who are adjusting to the league’s introduction of the pitch clock. For some pitchers, the clock is making it more difficult to sustain endurance. Scherzer, though, said he is struggling most with the clock at the start of an at-bat when a runner is on base. The way the game used to flow, he had more time. No more.
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His bigger obstacle Monday night, though, was his opponent. Scherzer said he was pleased with his secondary pitches, but had a case of the “just misses” with his fastball. Mets manager Buck Showalter made the same observation, noting the Padres’ powerful lineup is difficult to navigate, requiring pitchers to be careful. Then again, after playing the Sunday night game, the Padres likely were a bit fatigued. They arrived at their hotel in New York at about 3 a.m.
In one important respect, Scherzer got better as the night went on. He threw first-pitch strikes to nine of his final 10 hitters after going 0-1 on only two of his first eight. But one member of the Padres, granted anonymity so he could speak candidly, thought Scherzer’s stuff fell off after the second inning, and that he made pitches when necessary but was hittable overall.
One other thing: After three starts, Scherzer’s release point is down nearly three inches, the lowest it has been in four seasons, and the biggest single-season drop of his career. The change is notable: A lower release point frequently leads to diminished stuff.
Early-season assessments, whether positive or negative, always come with the small-sample caveat. The introduction of the clock only adds to the uncertainty, and some pitchers will adjust more quickly than others. Scherzer, though, had an interesting answer when asked if he feels he is getting closer to where he needs to be.
“I just know what I’m capable of. I know what I’m capable of when I pitch and locate,” Scherzer said. “I think I can continue to get better and keep grinding and find midseason form. It’s a challenge for everybody. Everybody is trying to find that midseason form right now. You’re dealing with all the different elements … It’s whoever can do that fast enough.”
Monday night was at least a step forward, and as such, it amounted to a welcome development for a rotation that early on includes only one original member performing at his expected level, Kodai Senga, 30. Verlander, recovering from a right teres major strain, has yet to make his Mets debut. Left-hander José Quintana, 34, is out until at least July after undergoing left rib cage surgery. Righty Carlos Carrasco, 36, has an 11.42 ERA through two starts.
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Verlander expects to return before the end of the month. Perhaps by then Scherzer will regain his mojo. But let’s not forget, Scherzer threw a career-low 145 1/3 innings in the 2022 regular season while dealing with oblique issues. Verlander, returning from Tommy John surgery, threw 175 innings, but was dominant enough to win the American League Cy Young.
The problem is this: The way the Mets are constructed, they need Verlander and Scherzer to be dominant workhorses, if not in the regular season, when the three wild-cards format should provide the team with an ample cushion to qualify for the playoffs, then certainly in October.
One need look no further than Kershaw’s often torturous postseasons to understand the difficulty of succeeding in the season’s seventh month, regardless of a pitcher’s age. Neither Verlander nor Scherzer was all that good last October, at least in part because they were not at their physical peaks. This is a new season, and the Mets likely will use a six-man rotation at times to help preserve the two aces, the way the Astros did last season to protect Verlander.
With the great ones, the usual limits often do not apply. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling led the Diamondbacks to the 2001 World Series title at ages 37 and 34, respectively. Schilling also pitched for World Series champions with the Red Sox at 37 and 40. All these years later, teams are far more knowledgeable about training, conditioning, nutrition. And betting against Verlander and Scherzer is probably unwise, considering their lengthy track records of excellence.
The season will play out, as seasons always will do. Just know this: The Mets cannot possibly follow the Dodgers’ model, at least when it comes to starting pitching. The Dodgers had an advantage. Their best starters were in their primes.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris contributed to this story.
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(Photo: Frank Franklin II / AP Photo)