PITTSBURGH — When he takes the mound Thursday afternoon at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller will make his first Opening Day start on the same patch of Kentucky Bluegrass where his big-league career began.
That first one didn’t go so well.
“Everything you could draw up to be not good happened,” Keller said. “And it all happened really fast.”
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For pitchers, their inaugural Opening Day assignment is a reward for past performance and an opportunity to show they’ve reached an elite level. For Keller, it’s all of that — plus a shot at redemption.
On May 27, 2019, Keller was called up from Triple-A Indianapolis to start the second game of a doubleheader against the Reds. A second-round draft pick in 2014, Keller was the top prospect in the Pirates’ system.
In nine starts with Indy before his promotion, Keller went 5-0 with a 3.34 ERA and averaged 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Solid numbers. There also was one sneaky statistic that casual fans didn’t notice, but might have set off warning bells for the analytics wonks in the Pirates front office.
Keller had yielded a .359 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over those nine minor-league outings.
Analysts often say a pitcher with a high BABIP is simply unlucky, and there’s a measure of truth in that. A lousy BABIP also can be a time bomb. When Keller ran onto the field for the bottom of the first inning, he didn’t know his luck was about to run out.
“I was anxious, nervous, whatever, but ready for it,” Keller recalled a few days ago. “The pregame warmup was cool. All my friends from back home (in Iowa) were there, so I heard them yelling and stuff. And then being in the game — being in the moment — was awesome.”
Keller’s parents, Al and Joni, made the six-hour drive from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to Cincinnati to watch his debut. Jon Keller, who the year before had retired after five seasons as a pitcher in the Orioles farm system, wore his little brother’s Arizona Fall League jersey to the game.
Robby Incmikoski, the sideline reporter for AT&T SportsNet, grabbed his remote mic and headed toward Section 130 behind the Reds dugout, where roughly 40 of Keller’s friends and family were seated. He planned to interview Keller’s parents on the air during the game.
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“We wanted to celebrate the big day a couple innings in,” Incmikoski said. “All of a sudden, the first inning was a rough go. And then you’re like, ‘Oh, no.’”
Keller’s first two pitches to Nick Senzel were called strikes. The next four dipped below the zone and into the dirt, so Senzel walked. Jesse Winker put a 1-2 pitch in play, a line drive that found grass in center field for a single. Eugenio Suárez walked.
Derek Dietrich whiffed on three straight fastballs down the middle. No balls in play, no problem. However, Yasiel Puig connected on the first pitch for an RBI single and José Iglesias launched a changeup into the left-field seats for a grand slam.
Three balls in play, three hits, five runs.
With two outs, Curt Casali doubled on fan interference. Pitcher Sonny Gray got his third career hit, an infield single.
“That one sticks with me,” Keller said, wincing. “A dribbler down toward third base in no-man’s land. It was just perfect enough.”
Senzel stroked a single to score Casali and make it 6-0. Keller’s 41-pitch nightmare inning ended when Winker struck out.
When he got to the dugout, Keller was encircled by veteran starters Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer and Trevor Williams. “They made sure I knew they were with me and I should just keep going,” Keller said. “That’s what I told myself: ‘All right, it’s out of the way. Now it’s time to see how you bounce back.’”
Keller was not surprised then-manager Clint Hurdle sent him back out for the second inning. “But I was surprised Clint didn’t come and get me in the first (inning),” Keller said with a grin. “That first inning crushed me a little bit, but I knew I had to get back out there. Once I did that, I began to feel like, ‘Yeah, I belong here. I can get the best hitters out.’”
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Keller blanked the Reds in the second, third and fourth innings before giving way to the bullpen. The next day, he was sent back to Indy.
Recalled in June and again in August, Keller wound up making 11 starts in his rookie season. He went 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA — and posted a whopping .478 BABIP, the worst single-season mark in MLB history.
“That first inning (against the Reds) set the tone for my whole year,” Keller said. “Not mindset-wise, but all the unlucky s— and stuff I couldn’t control. I was throwing a lot of strikes and striking out a lot of people, doing everything I could. It’s probably the best my fastball has ever played and I had something like (a) 50 percent swing-and-miss (rate) on my slider. But when I got hit, the ball always seemed to fall in somehow. Popup, fly ball, line drive, it didn’t matter. It always fell for a hit.”
The next two seasons were a roller-coaster ride. Keller pitched well in the truncated 2020 season, but made only five starts before suffering an injury. He was healthy in 2021, but struggled so much that his future with the club was in doubt.
Adding a sweeper and sinker last season sparked a turnaround. Keller set personal bests in strikeouts (159) and ERA (3.91). His .321 BABIP was the sixth-highest among all starters (minimum 150 innings pitched), but it’s becoming more manageable.
Most importantly, Keller conquered the self-doubt that had plagued him earlier in his career.
“I think we saw Mitch grow into a man last year,” manager Derek Shelton said. “It’s a credit to him because he worked his ass off. That’s huge because this guy is so important to us this year and down the road.”
Keller went into spring training aiming to earn the Opening Day starter assignment. Midway through camp, Shelton made it official.
The moment Mitch found out is everything. 🥲 pic.twitter.com/oZJgThZjP2
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 15, 2023
Last winter, Keller peeked at the Pirates’ schedule and smiled when he saw the 2023 opener was at Great American Ball Park. He wanted to pitch in that game, well aware that what will be the biggest start of his career so far will unfold at the spot of his inglorious debut. He’s eager for the challenge and appreciates the symmetry.
“I think it’s cool,” Keller said. “I’m ready to not have that (first inning) happen again. Hopefully, this year I’ll fare better than I did the first time.”
(Top photo: Gerald Herbert / Associated Press)