As the 2023 MLB season kicks off, there are a lot of new things to learn. There are a number of major rule changes that were designed to speed up the game and increase offense. The new balanced schedule will result in all 30 teams playing every team. And an action-packed offseason saw free agents taking home major dollars with new teams.
Advertisement
To get ready for the Marlins’ season, here is everything you need to know:
Scores & Schedule | Roster | Stats
What to expect from the Marlins this season?
Keith Law’s season projection: 75-87
The Athletic’s staff voting:
| Team | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
74.2% | |
12.9% | |
12.9% | |
0.0% | |
0.0% |
This is the fourth-place team in the NL East, with more questions than answers when it comes to their position players. But, at the very least, the Marlins will be a scrappy team with a lot of grit. — Jim Bowden
Bold prediction: The Marlins won’t be a bottom-10 offense this year. They were third-worst last season, second-worst the year before, and dead last over the past five years in runs scored, but it’s possible the offense didn’t fit the park right. Statcast park factors say that loanDepot park is the 18th-most hitter-friendly park league overall, but the eighth-hardest park to hit a home run. A team more focused on making contact and putting the ball in play rather than hitting it out should be a better fit in Miami, and that was the aim this offseason. — Sarris
What moves did the Marlins make this offseason?
Trades:
- Acquired INF Xavier Edwards and RHP JT Chargois from Rays for RHP Santiago Suarez and RHP Marcus Johnson;
- Traded RHP Elieser Hernandez and RHP Jeff Brigham to Mets for RHP Franklin Sanchez and a player to be named (Jake Mangum);
- Traded C Payton Henry to Brewers for OF Reminton Batista; traded SS Miguel Rojas to Dodgers for INF Jacob Amaya;
- Traded RHP Pablo López, INF Jose Salas and OF Byron Chourio to Twins for INF Luis Arraez;
- Acquired RHP Matt Barnes from Red Sox for LHP Richard Bleier;
- Acquired LHP AJ Puk from A’s for OF JJ Bleday
Free-agent signings: 2B Jean Segura, 2 years/$17 million; RHP Johnny Cueto, 1 year/$8.5 million
Eno Sarris’ grade: C
While it’s admirable to have an ethos — this offseason the team prioritized athletes who could make contact — that singular focus may have hurt the team when making transactions. Take the acquisition of Luis Arraez, who does make contact, but has been injured often, doesn’t add power or patience, and isn’t a great defender. To get him, the Marlins had to not only give up Pablo López, but also one of their more exciting minor-league prospects in Jose Salas. It’s also just strange that, at the end of a flurry of moves, the Marlins are left with former second basemen at third base, second base, shortstop, and center field. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see how it works out. — Sarris
Advertisement
Jim Bowden’s grade: B+
The Marlins love second basemen: They hired former second baseman Skip Schumaker as their manager (which was a great hire); they signed second baseman Jean Segura to play third base; they acquired prospect Xavier Edwards, a second baseman, in a trade with the Rays; they moved second baseman Jazz Chisholm to center field; and they traded for second baseman and AL batting champ Luis Arraez, who will play second even though he’s the third-best defensive second baseman on the team. They also may have solved shortstop with their under-the-radar trade with the Dodgers for Jacob Amaya. The Marlins have a lot of defensive questions up the middle and, more importantly, significant lineup concerns. However, they also have NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and a starting rotation capable of spoiling the season for contending teams. — Bowden
Players to watch
Team MVP?
Jazz Chisholm, CF: Due to outsized strikeout rates and up-and-down walk rates, not every projection system has Jazz Chisholm as the best Marlin going into this season. That should change if he can stay on the field. The biggest problem on his ledger has been 741 plate appearances in the past two seasons combined. Everyday at-bats for a whole season should help him continue to improve that strikeout rate, and the new shift and base running rules seem made to order to help the speedy left-handed hitter max out his value. If he doesn’t stay healthy, Sandy Alcantara will be the team MVP again. — Sarris
Who impressed the most in spring training?
Jesús Sánchez, OF: You’d maybe like it to come with better contact — he is striking out a little more this spring than he did last year, and it would’ve been nice to improve on last year’s rate — but Sánchez racked up the hits for the Marlins this spring. Which is good, because he’s out of options and going up against Bryan De La Cruz for the lion’s share of the left-field playing time. His counterpart has been struggling, and bats right-handed, and has an option, so Sánchez has probably played his way into the starting lineup on Opening Day. — Sarris
Most impacted by the new rules?
Chisholm, CF: A lefty-hitting pull hitter with blazing speed sits right in the middle of two important rule changes. Chisholm pulled half his balls in play last year, which was good for his power but not as great for his batting average on balls in play. He should get a few extra-base hits this year due to the shift rules changing. The 25-year-old was also in the 94th percentile in sprint speed and should enjoy fewer throws over and shorter base paths due to the bigger bases. A healthy Chisholm has a shot at the Marlins’ first 30/30 season since Hanley Ramirez in 2008. — Sarris
Who has the most to lose (or gain)?
Trevor Rogers, SP: Despite decent stuff and location numbers last year, Rogers had a bad season. So bad, scouts with other organizations have been debating his future role. Why have they been doing so? Because it’s well known that the Marlins will trade away pitching for hitting, and Rogers could be available with the emergence of Eury Pérez behind him. The likelihood that he gets traded changes with every good start, and as a player just about to head into his arbitration years, Rogers must know that those good starts will also have a tremendous impact on his pocketbook in the short term. He looks good again this spring, and a good season could change the trajectory of his career. — Sarris
Advertisement
Most likely to have a bounce-back season?
Jorge Soler, DH: Last year, Jorge Soler put up almost the exact same barrel and maximum exit velocity numbers as he did in 2021. He hit half as many homers as he did in 2021, too. Part of that was the park, but if you haven’t checked park factors recently, you might be surprised that Miami ranks 23rd in home run park factor on Baseball Savant — not last or second-to-last as they have in the past. Overall, it’s about average for offense, too. The other part of it was health, so the 31-year-old will have to have one of his better seasons in that regard in order to truly bounce back. But when he’s on the field, that capability for a low-average, decent OBP, high-20s to low-30s home run total is still there. — Sarris
Likeliest to outperform their fantasy draft ranking?
Avisaíl Garcia. Ranking: OF 77
It was a bad season for Avisaíl García. A really bad season. The worst of his career. The power disappeared, the strikeouts soared, the walks vanished and he struggled with injuries. He wants to forget it, but there were a couple of indicators under the surface that suggest his physicality is still there, and his tools are still there under all that poor performance. For one, he was still in the top quartile of the league when it came to arm strength, sprint speed, and raw power (as judged by his maximum exit velocity). There are still negatives to Garcia’s game — he swings at too many pitches outside the zone, and his routes in the outfield are … not good. But he’s usually a menace to pitches he connects with. Here’s thinking that the underlying power will rise to the surface again this year as he continues yo-yoing through his career. This team will need his power. — Sarris
Rookie most likely to make an impact?
Jacob Amaya, SS: Everyone is waiting on Eury Perez, the 6-foot-8 fireballer who’s carving up the minor leagues, but this Marlins team has plenty of starters and Perez only managed 75 innings in the minors last year. He might spend most of the season down there again putting the finishing touches on his résumé. Despite having six second basemen, the Marlins do have a pressing need at shortstop. Joey Wendle might be a capable steward for a bit, but the organization has to be eyeing Amaya, who came over in the Miguel Rojas trade from Los Angeles. Even if the 24-year-old doesn’t recover any of his power, his patience and glove could propel him to Miami shortly. — Sarris
How good is the Marlins’ farm system?
No. 1 prospect: Eury Perez, SP
Pérez won’t even turn 20 until April, but the Marlins’ top prospect — and the top pitching prospect in all of baseball — is certainly all grown up, as he’s 6-8, pushing 6-9, and has already conquered Double A. Pérez already sits in the upper 90s, reaching 99 mph in the Futures Game last summer, coming from a low slot that mitigates some of the benefit he might get from his height but that makes it nearly impossible for right-handed batters to see the ball out of his hand. He pairs it with a plus changeup that has hard tumbling action and looks just like the fastball out of his hand, leaving him with no platoon split at all in 2022, while he also has a mid-80s slider that has a short, mostly vertical break, enough to keep right-handers from sitting on the heater. He’s a strike-thrower who walked two or fewer batters in 14 of his first 15 starts last year, although his command is probably a full grade below his control right now. Pitchers this tall do not have a great track record of health, and Pérez himself has missed time in the last two years, getting shut down for about five weeks in August and September last year due to “arm fatigue,” so there is real risk here around his durability. If he just stays healthy, though, he has No. 1 starter upside. There is no one in the minors with this kind of stuff, deception, and ability to throw strikes. — Law
Organization’s ranking: No. 21
I like this system a bit more than the ranking implies, but that’s based on a lot of high-variance guys about whom I am more bullish. I didn’t love seeing Jose Salas, who was fourth in the system, traded for Luis Arraez, but that didn’t really move them at all in the overall rankings. I didn’t love their 2022 draft class, though, so look for them to move up just from those guys if it turns out I was wrong about Jacob Berry, Karson Milbrandt, et al. — Law
Required reading
Rosenthal: New additions, old questions for Marlins
(Top photo of Chisholm: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)