Cleveland Baseball Countdown, No. 4: José Ramírez’s pursuit of franchise history

Editor’s note: This story is part of the Cleveland Baseball Countdown, a series of 30 features on the club’s 30 best players of the past 30 years.

Most players on this list are stuck in neutral. They can’t do anything to improve their ranking. They spend their days on the golf course, sipping coffee and reading The Athletic. (Wishful thinking?)

José Ramírez can help his cause more than any other player, not just in this countdown, but also on countless franchise leaderboards. When he and the Guardians negotiated his long-term contract last spring, he voiced his desire to stick with one team for most or all of his career.

With that extension (and a no-trade clause) in place, he’ll presumably remain in Cleveland through 2028. That arms him with ample opportunity to climb toward the top of the team’s all-time ranks in home runs, doubles, WAR and hits … as well as the top of this list, of course.

I’ve written at length about Ramírez and his journey from a middle school dropout to an overlooked minor leaguer to a superstar with potential Hall of Fame credentials. He’s responsible for five of the eight best seasons by a Cleveland third baseman in the last half-century (and would have been responsible for six of the nine best seasons had the 2020 season not been trimmed to 60 games).

But for this exercise, let’s peer into his future and assess where he might wind up in franchise lore. What might his resume look like by the time his Cleveland tenure reaches a decorated conclusion?

The home run chase

Ramírez is tied with Al Rosen, another prolific third baseman, for 10th in team history with 192 homers. He could leap into fourth place by the end of this season, and into second place by the end of the 2024 campaign.

1. Jim Thome: 337
2. Albert Belle: 242
3. Manny Ramirez: 236
4. Earl Averill: 226
5. (tie) Carlos Santana, Hal Trosky: 216
7. Larry Doby: 215
8. Andre Thornton: 214
9. Travis Hafner: 200
10. (tie) José Ramírez, Al Rosen: 192

He didn’t really hit for power until 2017, but since then, he has averaged one home run every 20 plate appearances. He has averaged 649 plate appearances per season in that span (extrapolating his production from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season), which would equate to about 32 homers per year. To overtake Thome, Ramírez needs 146 more home runs. That seems attainable, provided he can stave off a steep, sudden decline.

ZiPS projections for Ramírez’s next three seasons:

2023: 30 HR, .272/.353/.516, 6.1 fWAR
2024: 28 HR, .268/.348/.501, 5.5 fWAR
2025: 25 HR, .264/.346/.486, 4.8 fWAR

Let’s say those projections pan out. Ramírez would sit 62 homers behind Thome, with three seasons remaining on his contract with Cleveland. As is the case for every scenario we’ll outline in this space, he’ll need to avoid lengthy stints on the injured list as he pursues the top spot on the leaderboard.

Nothing but the hits

Ramírez ranks 22nd in team history with 1,155 hits, but he should jump to at least 13th this season, surpassing Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Larry Doby, Julio Franco and others. He could slide into the top 10 by the end of 2024.

1. Nap Lajoie: 2,052
2. Tris Speaker: 1,965
3. Earl Averill: 1,903
4. Joe Sewell: 1,800
5. Charlie Jamieson: 1,753
6. Lou Boudreau: 1,706
7. Omar Vizquel: 1,616
8. Ken Keltner: 1,561
9. Kenny Lofton: 1,512
10. Terry Turner: 1,472

If Ramírez spends another six seasons in a Cleveland uniform, he would need to average 150 hits per season to catch Lajoie. Since he became an established regular in 2016, Ramírez has averaged more than a hit per game, so if he stays healthy, it’s not impossible. Some of his traits at the plate — his contact ability, his sense of the strike zone — should help his cause as he ages.

Double trouble

José Ramírez, on the move. (David Richard / USA Today)

One of the underrated joys of watching Ramírez play is when he hits a grounder or liner to the outfield, hustles to first, makes a wide turn and, often without hesitation, dashes to second to squeeze an extra base out of a hit on which 99.9 percent of batters would settle for a single. There’s always an instant when, as an objective viewer lacking Ramírez’s instincts, athleticism and chutzpah, you can’t believe someone would be daring enough to try to gain another 90 feet. But far more often than not, a few seconds later, his chest is in the dirt, his hand is on the base, his helmet is in another zip code and the umpire is signaling he’s safe. Watching that sequence unfold, from batter’s box to second base, is fascinating, and we witness it frequently.

When it comes to doubles, Ramírez is chasing ghosts. The seven players ahead of him on the team’s all-time leaderboard all played in the first half of the 20th century.

1. Tris Speaker: 486
2. Nap Lajoie: 424
3. Earl Averill: 377
4. Joe Sewell: 375
5. Lou Boudreau: 367
6. Ken Keltner: 306
7. Charlie Jamieson: 296
8. José Ramírez: 289

Ramírez should move into sixth place this year. It’ll take 197 more doubles for him to match Speaker, which seems like a daunting task. Then again, Ramírez has twice led the league in doubles, many the result of his aggressive approach to base running.

Ramírez’s doubles totals the last seven years: 46, 56, 38, 33, 16 (equates to 43 over a full season), 32, 44.

Stolen identity

Kenny Lofton’s steals record appears safe, so long as the league doesn’t increase the size of the bases every season until the sport resembles a sixth-grade gym class version of matball. Ramírez could crash the top two on this list in several years. He needs 105 stolen bases to tie Vizquel for the silver medal in this category.

1. Kenny Lofton: 452
2. Omar Vizquel: 279
3. Terry Turner: 254
4. Nap Lajoie: 240
5. Ray Chapman: 233
6. Elmer Flick: 207
7. José Ramírez: 174

Based on Statcast’s sprint speed metric, Ramírez has typically showcased solid, but unspectacular, quickness on the bases. Yet he ranks at or near the top of FanGraphs’ base-running metric leaderboard on an annual basis. He’s not outrunning the catcher’s throws; he’s outwitting the pitcher and catcher. That could help him continue to rack up stolen bases, even as he ages.

The WAR charts

Cleveland’s franchise dates back to 1901, when the Blues were a charter member of the American League. That’s 123 years of position players shuffling through League Park, Municipal Stadium and Progressive Field. And Ramírez already ranks ninth all-time in terms of overall production.

He can certainly slide into the top four before the end of his tenure, joining Lajoie, Speaker and Boudreau, Hall of Famers who played 80 to 120 years ago. And he might just wind up the most accomplished player in this countdown, too.

Read more: The stories that define José Ramírez

About the series

The Cleveland Baseball Countdown is a series of features on the club’s 30 best players of the past 30 years. There surely will be debate about the rankings. I tried to balance longevity with dominance, but this is an inexact science. Feel free to spout off in the comments with your frustrations about where I placed Albert Belle or how I omitted Ryan Garko. Just please keep it lighthearted. This isn’t a definitive ranking. It’s supposed to be fun. Throughout the series, we’ll have some bonus pieces, extra anecdotes, honorable mentions, one-year wonders and more.

• No. 30: José Mesa
• No. 29: Travis Fryman
• No. 28: Andrew Miller
• No. 27: Shin-Soo Choo
• No. 26: Asdrúbal Cabrera
• No. 25: David Justice
• No. 24: Shane Bieber
• No. 23: Cody Allen
• No. 22: Jason Kipnis
• No. 21: Cliff Lee
• No. 20: Carlos Carrasco
• No. 19: Bartolo Colon
• No. 18: Charles Nagy
• No. 17: Victor Martinez
• No. 16: Sandy Alomar Jr.
• No. 15: Carlos Baerga
• No. 14: Carlos Santana
• No. 13: Travis Hafner
• No. 12: Michael Brantley
• No. 11: Roberto Alomar
• No. 10: Grady Sizemore
• No. 9: Omar Vizquel
• No. 8: CC Sabathia
• No. 7: Francisco Lindor
• No. 6: Albert Belle
• No. 5: Corey Kluber

(Photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)