With one week of games remaining, the Cardinals are arguably no closer to setting their Opening Day roster than they were at the beginning of camp.
Sure, cuts have been made and some choices are clear, but in terms of the big decisions, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and manager Oli Marmol have their work cut out for them. As of Sunday evening, the Cardinals have 33 major-league players and 10 non-roster invitees remaining in camp. They mostly know who their starters are — in the rotation and in the field — but the remaining spots are up for grabs. And nearly everyone still in camp is still in contention.
As Marmol summed up in a recent phone call with The Athletic: “There are multiple guys good enough to be on the team that won’t be.”
115.9 MPH off the bat of Jordan Walker!
His MLB-leading 17th hit and 7th XBH of the Spring. pic.twitter.com/rZfFQXQfOr
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 17, 2023
There are 26 spots on an Opening Day roster. St. Louis will likely take 13 position players and 13 pitchers, though that isn’t a final decision. There are roughly 16 players competing for the final eight to nine spots. From a position standpoint, those remaining jobs involve a bench bat, the backup catcher and a utility role. There are also four or five open roles in the bullpen, which looks to be the most jammed area on the roster.
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As they enter the final week of the spring, where do the Cardinals’ decision-makers stand on the 43 players remaining? Who has played their way on and who might be the odd man out based on options and contracts? There’s a lot riding on the next week of games, and that’s putting it lightly. Let’s break it down.
The no-brainers
Starting pitchers (5): Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright
Position players (7): Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill
Relievers (2): Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley
We don’t need to spend much time here. The Cardinals knew their ideal rotation before they opened camp, and barring any emergencies in the final week of spring, they’ll roll out the season with their projected starters. What is yet to be determined is the order of the rotation, but an Opening Day starter is expected to be announced by Thursday.
The position-playing group more or less represents most of the names we will see in the starting lineup each day. The only quirk here is Donovan, who will likely play every day, but his position and spot in the batting order will vary — similar to how the Cardinals used him last year.
As for the high-leverage relievers, Helsley and Gallegos are expected to split closing duties again. Helsley looks as if he’s picking up where he left off last season. The right-hander has 10 strikeouts in five innings this spring. As of now, however, there are again no plans for Helsley to pitch on back-to-back days, which means Gallegos will be counted on again in high-leverage scenarios when Helsley is unavailable. While there were initial concerns about Gallegos adapting to the pitch clock, he impressed the organization with how he handled the change before departing for the World Baseball Classic. Gallegos has performed well in that aspect also. He has two saves for Team Mexico, including an impressive ninth inning against Puerto Rico, a win that knocked Yadier Molina’s team out of the tournament.
Ryan Helsley has struck out his last six batters faced. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/zHoTP23dr6
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 15, 2023
The most likely
Position players (2): Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman
Relief pitchers (5): Jordan Hicks, Andre Pallante, Chris Stratton, Wilking Rodríguez, Drew VerHagen
Perhaps no two players entered camp with more pressure to perform than Carlson and Gorman. After a tumultuous rookie season, Gorman quickly put any offensive concerns about his game to rest. He’s hitting .324 with three home runs and a 1.014 OPS in 37 at-bats. Beyond the box score, Gorman has shown a more disciplined approach, especially against the high fastball, which was something the Cardinals were heavily evaluating. He’s also shown some defensive value with his versatility. With Arenado missing time at the World Baseball Classic, Gorman has seen ample time at third base — his natural position. He’s impressed there and also at second base, and the Cardinals are toying with the idea that he could be Arenado’s backup at the hot corner.
Gorman Gone! pic.twitter.com/f0164sPhDJ
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 19, 2023
The Cardinals mapped out their ideal starting outfield with Carlson in it, though the battle for the starting center-field job still seems to be wide open. The biggest area of emphasis for Carlson is increased power from the left side, and he’s making strides. Two of his three home runs this spring came batting left-handed. Overall he’s 10-for-38 with an .886 OPS. The only damper on Carlson’s spring campaign is an uptick in strikeouts (he has 13), though a higher strikeout rate often accompanies players who are trying to increase power.
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Hicks and Pallante were staples in the bullpen last year and should factor into the late-innings blueprints once more. One thing to note: Though Pallante is listed as a right-hander, the organization plans to use him as if he was left-handed, based on his reverse splits. So for all intents and purposes, a left-handed bullpen spot is basically allotted to Pallante, since he’ll be used primarily against left-handed hitters.
Stratton, Rodríguez and VerHagen all have contractual obligations, though VerHagen’s spring has been so encouraging to the Cardinals, he might not need it. The stats are encouraging, sure — VerHagen has allowed just one earned run in five innings while walking one and striking out four — but it’s his pitch makeup that has the Cardinals especially intrigued. Now that he’s healthy, the organization believes his numbers, both from a stat line perspective and from data, are much more indicative of what they saw in VerHagen when they signed him last season.
Rodríguez’s line hasn’t been as clean as some of the others, though he does have six strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings, and his triple-digit fastball is certainly a force. With Rodríguez, Hicks and Helsley, the Cardinals could have three relievers whose fastball velocity averages over 100 mph. As a Rule 5 draft pick, the Cardinals must keep Rodríguez on their active roster all season or risk returning him to his previous club (the Yankees). There are ways around this; St. Louis could work a trade, for example, but it remains to be seen if that option is actually in play. The Cardinals signed Stratton to a $2.8 million deal, avoiding arbitration, last November and expect him to play a multi-inning role from the right side.
The spring standouts
Position player: Jordan Walker
Relief pitcher: Zack Thompson
Welcome to the Jordan Walker section, and hello to those of you who skipped the above just to read this first.
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The biggest question surrounding camp this spring has been if Walker will make the Opening Day roster. After a month of spring training games, the results have been nothing but telling. Walker has played 14 games and has a slash line of .378/.391/.667. He’s clubbed three home runs, four doubles and driven in nine. On top of the production, he’s wowed the organization with his poise, maturity and composure and more or less has performed up to his five-tool expectations.
If the question is if Walker has earned a spot on the roster, the answer is an unequivocal yes. Walker was given an opportunity and he ran with it. However, the Cardinals must now figure out how the rest of the roster would look. Walker would not make the Opening Day team to be a bench bat or to serve as a full-time designated hitter. If he makes the team, the internal preference is Walker will play every day as a starting outfielder. Is there room for O’Neill, Carlson, Nootbaar and Walker to play every day? Marmol likes to switch up the lineup on a near-daily basis. With that same logic in mind, the Cardinals could use that strategy with a rotating DH in the outfield, as Carlson, Nootbaar and O’Neill can all play center field, and ensure Walker gets the reps he needs.
The left-handed reliever competition has been arguably the most competitive battle all spring. With Pallante taking up one spot, there is essentially one role remaining for a lefty (if the above-mentioned all make the roster).
It’s a tough decision, and that’s putting it mildly, but Thompson has aced every test the Cardinals have thrown at him this year. In addition to not allowing a run this spring, his fastball velocity is up 3 mph and his spin rate, vertical break and horizontal break on his curveball have all improved as well.
The tricky part here is how well the other lefty relievers have performed. Packy Naughton has impressed in camp and the organization believes Génesis Cabrera and JoJo Romero to be two of their best options in regard to pitch profile and arsenal.
Nastiness from Zack Thompson! pic.twitter.com/61WjEFi1uV
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) March 16, 2023
The ones to watch
Position players (6): Tres Barrera, Alec Burleson, Paul DeJong, Andrew Knizner, Taylor Motter, Juan Yepez
Pitchers (9): Génesis Cabrera, Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Packy Naughton, Anthony Misiewicz, JoJo Romero, Andrew Suarez, Jake Woodford, Guillermo Zuñiga
Knizner, the incumbent reserve catcher, looks likely to keep his job, even if his spring numbers have been short of expectation so far. He works well with many returning members of the pitching staff — most notably with Mikolas. Burleson and Yepez are essentially competing for the same role, even though Yepez bats right-handed and Burleson left-handed. They are both bat-first players whose prime value comes in pinch-hit or designated-hitter situations. Both can play the corner outfield positions if absolutely necessary, but with the amount of defensive versatility projected in the starting lineup, they shouldn’t need to. If Walker makes the team, only one of them will follow suit. Burleson profiles for solid contact, while Yepez is the power hitter of the two. How each player ends the spring could be the deciding point for who makes it and who doesn’t.
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It’s been a disappointing spring for DeJong, who was set for significant playing time with various teammates participating in the World Baseball Classic. However, arm fatigue and lower back soreness limited DeJong’s action. The hope is DeJong will be back Tuesday (he hit in the cage Sunday) but his chances to prove himself are dwindling. The Cardinals will evaluate DeJong’s performance, yes, but with such a limited sample size, they will also base their decision on aspects such as swing path, plate approach and chase rate. Defensively, DeJong is more than serviceable. However, the club will also have to take Motter’s power bat — and his ability to also play several positions — into consideration.
Jake Woodford could hardly have had a better spring. His velocity ticked up, his slider is much more effective and, perhaps most importantly, he’s delivered consistent results. From a performance perspective, he should be on the roster. But with so many players competing for limited spots, the number of options a player has will play into the decision. It’s a business, after all. The Cardinals also need to make sure there is length in Triple A. That way if a starter is hurt, there is considerable backup at the ready. Woodford, Hudson and Liberatore all have options remaining. So do Romero, Cabrera, Naughton and Thompson. The bullpen decision is going to come down to the wire. This is a good problem to have, of course, but it also means the last week of play will be heavily scrutinized.
The projection
Starting rotation order: Adam Wainwright (RHP), Jack Flaherty (RHP), Jordan Montgomery (LHP), Miles Mikolas (RHP), Steven Matz (LHP)
Starting position players: Willson Contreras (C), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Brendan Donovan (2B), Tommy Edman (SS), Nolan Arenado (3B), Tyler O’Neill (OF), Lars Nootbaar (OF), Jordan Walker (OF), Dylan Carlson (OF/DH), Nolan Gorman (INF/DH)
Reserves: Andrew Knizner (C), Paul DeJong (SS), Juan Yepez (OF)
Relievers: Ryan Helsley (RHP), Giovanny Gallegos (RHP), Jordan Hicks (RHP), Andre Pallante (RHP), Zack Thompson (LHP), Chris Stratton (RHP), Drew VerHagen (RHP), Wilking Rodríguez (RHP)
The Cardinals front office caught some flack for not making more offseason acquisitions, but one look at the names left off this projection will show that there is considerable depth in the organization. Even though the Cardinals prioritized and didn’t block their younger talent, St. Louis still has a position logjam. You can make the argument that many of the names left off this projection deserve to be on it. Chances are, there are those inside the organization who would agree with you.
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That’s what has made this spring so interesting, and so complicated, for the Cardinals brass as they work to compile their best 26 players. And that’s also what makes the final week of spring so imperative. The reality is the Cardinals haven’t fully come to a set decision. They’ll likely need the maximum amount of time to do so, and even that might not be enough.
(Photo of Jordan Walker: Rich Storry / USA Today)