Greetings folks,
The Houston Rockets are 17-52 but have won two straight with victories over the Boston Celtics and L,A, Lakers. Needless to say, there are plenty of things to talk about. No need to waste time, let’s dive right into it.
Questions have been lightly edited for style, length and clarity.
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You sort through the top 5 draft prospects yet? Victor Wembanyama No. 1 is obvious and doesn’t need discussion. A lot of draft “experts” have slid Brandon Miller into the No. 2 spot ahead of Scoot Henderson, then it’s a bit more users’ choice for No. 4 and 5. Who ya got? Miller over Scoot? Upside or floor at 4 and 5? — John W.
Hey, Kelly, do you know what the team’s big board is for the draft? I’m guessing Vic and Scoot are top two, but in a scenario where we get the third-fifth pick, does the team have clear preferences between Miller, Amen (Thompson), (Jarace) Walker, (Cam) Whitmore, etc.? Draft experts seem to rank them pretty evenly. — Mateo C.
I’m going to assume Houston’s big board in mid-March has a sizable demarcation between Victor Wembanyama and the rest of the field. Sorting out the rest of the field of the presumed front-end lottery talents is an exercise in preference, upside and potential impact.
A few months ago, this was a two-man draft: Metropolitan’s Wembanyama and G League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson. After that, a second tier existed with Miller, Amen and Ausar Thompson of Overtime Elite and Villanova’s Cam Whitmore. Then came a third tier featuring the likes of Kansas’ Gradey Dick, Houston’s Jarace Walker and so on.
Things have changed a bit. The gap between Henderson and Miller is closer than it once was — some believe he’s overtaken him. A combination of Henderson’s untimely mini-slump, the reported decision to end his season early, Miller’s upward trajectory and the prospect of him taking tournament favorite Alabama on a deep run all play a factor. NBA teams will certainly attempt to learn more about Miller after a police investigator testified in court last month that Miller brought then-teammate Darius Miles the gun that was used in the Jan. 15 fatal shooting of 23-year-old Jamea Jonae Harris. Miller’s attorney rebutted the report, and Miller has remained an active member of the team. Miles and Michael Lynn Davis, who is not associated with the university, have been indicted on capital murder charges.
As it pertains to the Rockets, though, a Henderson/Miller choice would boil down to the higher necessity. The difference between them right now is the equivalent of splitting hairs. But what does Houston need more of right now — quality playmaking or quality wing play?
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I would lean in the playmaking department, thus giving an edge to Henderson, but man it’s incredibly thin. Taking a step back and looking at Houston’s season as a whole, one can wonder what its half-court execution and overall offensive efficiency would look like with a natural lead ballhandler like Henderson. Kevin Porter Jr. has been fine at times as a makeshift option but it’s not his natural position. I still believe his best position is a wing creator/scorer.
Henderson didn’t finish the year on a particularly high note but he’s still head and shoulders above the other point guards in his class. He has all the tools that translate to the next level: power, grace, vision, explosiveness and leadership.
Miller has a great opportunity to capitalize on Henderson’s absence and firmly etch himself into the “next after Wembanyama” sweepstakes — he’s also an NBA dream with his size, shooting, creation ability and defensive upside. He had a strange tournament opener, going scoreless in 19 minutes, but coming into the game he was flirting with a 20-and-10 season, shooting 40 percent from 3 on high volume. The good stuff.
After those three, I’m going floor over upside in Houston’s case. These rebuilds can get long in the tooth if care isn’t taken. The quicker a player can come in and help, the better. With that being said, Amen Thompson is the best of the rest in my opinion.
The athleticism is next-level. There’s enough on tape to predict he’s going to be a team defender. He’s not as gifted as Henderson as a passer but he’s far from a slouch, either. Away from that, Walker needs to have a strong showing over these next few weeks to give evaluators confidence in putting him over the likes of Whitmore and Ausar Thompson. But if the Rockets somehow end up picking that low, I’d be surprised if they did’t explore moving that pick anyway.
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Jabari Smith Jr. has been turning it on as of late, which is a welcome sight to see. Is this possibly a similar trend to Jalen Green’s rookie season, both turning it on in the final quarter of the year? — Ethan J.
Is there anything or anyone behind Jabari Smith Jr.’s recent uptick in shooting? Has there been any changes to his training or preparation, or has he just become more comfortable shooting throughout the season? — Leon H.
More than anything, No.3 pick Smith needed to get back to the basics. In the midst of his struggles, a myriad of things could have been the reason. The Rockets’ offensive woes (although Smith was missing open looks), his individual mechanics and the one aspect no advanced metric can measure — confidence. Smith looked like a shell of the playfully cocky, competitive kid who walked into Houston’s locker room ready to make an impact from the get go.
Recently, Smith has looked more like the player the Rockets watched on tape and were impressed by leading up to the 2022 draft. And from the looks of it, his father played a big part.
Here’s what @jabarismithjr & his dad told me has been helping the rookie: pic.twitter.com/qDDww1a3rC
— Vanessa Richardson (@SportsVanessa) March 16, 2023
“He went through the struggles and continued to work through them,” head coach Stephen Silas said this week. “Didn’t pout, didn’t deviate from his work and snapped out of it. Stay true to what’s right, the work, the coaching part of it. He’s been a pleasure to coach with the way he is, how competitive he is but also the worker that he is. I’m so happy for him to see him break out of it.”
Most of you will remember Green’s post-All-Star surge, which gave real internal affirmation to the decision to bring him into the organization in the first place. I get the sense it’s a similar case with Smith, even more so because of his two-way potential and how he’s unlocked another version of himself in their small-ball lineups.
“It’s similar,” Silas said. “Getting down to the end of the season, some of the pressure is off, but he’s figuring things out as well. Finding confidence where he can get his shots, the best places to be successful on the floor on offense and defense. This is the time of the year that you want to see a spike going into the summer.”
Comparing the two, Green has shot nearly twice as many 3s (8.0) as Smith (4.6), but the latter’s efficiency is off the charts from deep in March, with him connecting on 45.9 percent of his attempts. Couple his rediscovered shooting stroke with some of his defensive moments (stay tuned) and you have the makings of something to hold on to in a rebuild.
I know we’re still a ways away, but do you see the Rockets trading up or down in the lottery in any scenario? — Colin C.
They’ll be disappointed if they don’t get the No. 1 pick (again). They would be aggressive in trading down if the pick is outside the top 3. Three years into a rebuild with a boatload of incoming cap space, this team wants to flip the page sooner rather than later. If they’re not getting their hands on Wembanyama, Henderson or even Miller, especially after a difficult season, that pick is as good as gone.
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What would it take to get Alperen Şengün to consistently play hard on defense? New coach? Better attitude and work ethic? Other? — Glen N.
Everything with defense boils down to conditioning and effort. There were a few possessions in Wednesday’s win against the shorthanded Lakers featuring Şengün playing hard defensively and getting rewarded for it.
I don’t think I’ve seen many sequences in his two seasons where he’s shown that kind of inside-outside aggression. That sort of effort can have a trickle-down effect and I have no doubt he can develop into an offensive machine who doesn’t have to be played off the floor in meaningful minutes.
It’s all attitude. In a vacuum, the Rockets don’t have to stick to a rigid drop defense when Şengün is on the floor. They prefer that because it puts less pressure on Şengün and simplifies his tasks. Playing a switching defense requires an incredible amount of exertion of defensive energy, something Şengün doesn’t do on a routine basis. Now, you could argue he’s not the only culprit in that arena but your center is supposed to be the last line of defense.
When Şengün moves with intent, the other teammates on the floor feel more comfortable switching knowing Şengün has their backs. All he has to do is be there.
Where Şengün needs to improve to get himself more playing time when it matters is again, effort. One of the most important parts of defensive stances is sealing the possession with a rebound. Şengün did a solid job with everything before D’Angelo Russell’s shot. Once the ball was in the air, Şengün needed to seal this possession with a rebound or at least box out or attempt to jump for the ball. But his feet never left the ground. Coaches see that.
He can be better and everyone else around him can as well, but he’s the key to the puzzle at center. It starts with him — you’re as strong as your weakest link.
Green, Sengun and Smith are recent No. 1 picks who seem mostly locked into the Rockets’ future. As we reach the end of the year, what do you, and the Rockets staff, believe is the future potential for the other recent No. 1 picks? Have they developed the way the staff expected at this point? Thanks! — Chad F.
I’m going to assume you mean first-round picks here. So, looking at Kenyon Martin Jr. and Tari Eason, the organization is pleased with how both have developed, especially with Martin.
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This season started out with him seeking a trade due to a fear of being squeezed out of the rotation, and by the end of it, he’s become an integral part of the rotation.
Eason has had a wild rookie season, but defensively, he’s going to be really good once he settles down — he’s already miles better than many of his peers in the rebounding department.
The jury is still out on Josh Christopher and Usman Garuba, and I imagine there’s some level of disappointment with both, but it’s not entirely their fault. There haven’t been enough minutes to go around to get both on the floor consistently.
The Houston Rockets have a lot of young players and draft picks, as well as ample salary cap space, so it appears they could also acquire valuable veteran players through trades. If that’s the case, who might the Rockets be targeting? And if they were to make a trade, which players on the Rockets team would be traded away? — Min Gyu S.
This team needs a strong defensive presence in the middle (think Myles Turner, Brook Lopez). It needs smart defensive-minded wings (think Dillon Brooks, Cam Johnson, O.G. Anunoby). The Rockets need shooting help and they need a point guard (Mike Conley, Fred VanVleet or hello, James Harden).
So, they should be targeting everything and everyone talented. The only problem is all of these desirable players are difficult to obtain. Any trade the Rockets make this offseason is going to require a talented young player (or multiple). And honestly, a 17-win team shouldn’t have any untouchables. That’s the reality of rebuilding.
(Photo of Alabama’s Brandon Miller: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)