Manchester United’s Casemiro-shaped hole: Who will replace him?

Casemiro’s importance to Manchester United can be seen in the numbers when he plays compared to when he does not. It is a rudimentary gauge of individual influence perhaps, but simply looking at a team’s performance with and without a player reveals fundamental truths.

In Casemiro’s case, the statistics are meaningful, as the table below shows. It’s a breakdown of United’s performances in the Premier League this season split between games Casemiro has started and has not.

Apportioning those four games when he arrived as a substitute to the “without” column feels fair given he was on the pitch for a cumulative total of 82 minutes and none of the results changed in that time (wins against Southampton, Leicester, Arsenal and the defeat to Manchester City).

Most notable is the difference in points per game. Were 1.7 to be stretched out over the campaign so far, United would be on 44 points (rounded to the nearest whole). At 2.1, the level achieved with 31-year-old Casemiro in midfield, the figure would be 55 points.

The average goals per game figure is actually lower when Casemiro starts, from 1.8 to 1.4, but the average goals conceded per game drops even more, from 1.7 to 1.1. The numbers fit the eye test when watching United matches that Casemiro detects the state of the game and acts accordingly. The margin does not necessarily matter. A crucial detail is the shots United concede per game being 16.2 when he doesn’t start and 10.2 when he does.

Casemiro has shown an attacking flair in certain matches, scoring twice and registering three assists in the Premier League. Those five goal contributions put him joint-fourth in the United squad, behind only Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and Christian Eriksen.

But it is his defensive nous that has proved most telling, giving United a platform to build from. On average this Premier League campaign, he makes an interception every 56 minutes and wins a tackle every 46 minutes (this is when the ball goes to a United player). He makes his presence felt, touching the ball 79 times every 90 minutes.

These are standout numbers among United’s midfielders, as the table shows.

Fred has a shade greater frequency than Casemiro for tackles won, but the player who is the closest fit on these screening metrics is Marcel Sabitzer, albeit his sample size is much smaller at just 274 minutes in the Premier League. Casemiro has played 1,339 minutes.

It was Sabitzer who came in for Casemiro during the Brazilian’s last suspension. The Austrian partnered Fred in midfield to pretty good effect. Their start was a little shaky as United required a comeback to draw 2-2 at home to Leeds, but then came the 2-0 win away to Leeds and the 3-0 victory over Leicester.

Sabitzer has missed the last two games with an injured knee, however, so depending on his recovery, Erik ten Hag may only be left with Fred and Scott McTominay as natural deeper midfield options for the four matches in which Casemiro is suspended: Fulham in the FA Cup, Newcastle, Brentford and Everton in the Premier League.

United considered appealing Casemiro’s red card against Southampton but decided there was not a high chance of success. The break will at least allow him to recuperate given he looked short of his standards in the 7-0 loss to Liverpool. It was speculated he may have been carrying an injury, but those close to him — who wish to remain anonymous to protect relationships — insist he was fit.

Ten Hag has been creative with his solutions to problems this season, but the most obvious answer is the return of a United staple under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer: McFred. Not a midfield to win titles, but it might be enough to do the job for the next four fixtures.

McTominay was the player called upon to fill the gap left by Casemiro’s sending-off on Sunday, probably selected because he could also go up top if required and for his height at set pieces, with Wout Weghorst coming off.

Scott McTominay came on against Southampton at the weekend following Casemiro’s red card (Photo: Nathan Stirk via Getty Images)

It feels a long time ago, but McTominay kept Casemiro out of the team at the start of the season, with Ten Hag appreciating his ability to drive with the ball from the base of midfield. A McTominay-Eriksen pivot was good for wins against Liverpool, Southampton, Leicester and Arsenal, before being exposed by Manchester City’s movement at the Etihad.

McTominay’s passing accuracy does stand up to comparison with Casemiro, and indeed Eriksen, but he does not hit the killer balls or pass through the lines like them. His 51 touches per 90 minutes also suggest he needs to be partnered alongside a player more involved on the ball.

Could that be Fernandes? Ten Hag selected his captain alongside Casemiro for the Southampton game in the hope United would control possession and be able to hurt their opponents with a greater range of attacking play. As shown in the pitch map for the first 30 minutes — before the red card for Casemiro (18) — Fernandes (8) was in reality more advanced. That is how Ten Hag’s midfield has generally been operating.

As a comparison, the positions were similar between Eriksen (14) and McTominay (39), the midfield pairing for Southampton away, in August, which is shown below.

Still, in Sunday’s match, Fernandes found himself in more defensive situations than usual and a precursor to Casemiro’s sending-off could be seen in the build-up to Theo Walcott’s headed chance which was saved by David de Gea. Carlos Alcaraz was dribbling through the middle of the pitch and Fernandes ran back to try to halt him. Fernandes slipped and impeded Alcaraz but he kept on, provoking Casemiro to dive into a tackle. He missed the ball but also Alcaraz’s quick feet. It could have been a foul. Casemiro was of course later dismissed for a lunge on Alcaraz in a similar part of the pitch.

It is not Fernandes’ natural game to have deeper defensive responsibility. He enjoys hunting the ball down higher up the pitch. His passing accuracy speaks to his risk-taking, which is necessary for an advanced role but detrimental when trying to keep hold of the ball in the build-up. He lost the ball 29 times against Southampton, the most of any Premier League player at the weekend, but he creates a chance every 32 minutes, which is by far the best ratio at the club.

It would be a bold move by Ten Hag to repurpose Fernandes in the same way again, even if it does enable a greater goal threat — including Jadon Sancho possibly getting a run of games at No 10.

With Donny van de Beek out injured for the rest of the season, the only other midfielder who could feature in Casemiro’s absence is Kobbie Mainoo. He is not 18 until next month but didn’t look out of place in the 10 minutes he got at the end of the Leicester game. Mainoo was the best player on the pitch in United under-21s’ recent Premier League 2 game against Chelsea.

Whatever Ten Hag decides, he will hope Casemiro’s third suspension of the season doesn’t harm United’s position in the Champions League places.

(Top photo: Nathan Stirk via Getty Images)