One of the best systems in baseball, the Guardians’ farm offers position players and pitchers, possible stars and a lot of depth, and a huge group of players who play either up the middle or at third base and give the team a ton of options for moving them around or including them in future trades. They’ve done a tremendous job developing pitching of late, and their international signing classes continue to produce strong prospects.
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MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Brayan Rocchio, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 22)
Age: 22 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Rocchio got off to a slow start in Double A last year, although he was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League at age 21, but improved as the season went on, hitting .316/.383/.539 in his last 50 games (of 99) before he was promoted to Triple A for the last five weeks of the season. He’s a smaller guy but makes hard contact, hitting 15 homers in 2021 and 18 last year, although he puts the ball on the ground a little too often for this type of hitter. He’s always had a compact, direct swing, and over the past few years he’s learned to stay back on the ball, with great balance through contact. He hits well from both sides but his swing is slightly better right-handed. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop with good hands and 55 speed, although once again, he was bad at the whole base-stealing thing, going 14-for-23 (61 percent) to bring his career success rate down to 64 percent. I guess it’s a good thing he can field, hit, and hit for power. He could stand to walk a little more, although some of his impatience may stem from him always being young for his levels, and he needs to continue to put the ball in the air. I still see All-Star upside here, a shortstop who saves a few runs a year with his glove and adds a ton more with .280-.300 averages, adequate walk rates and 15-20 homers a year.
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2. George Valera, OF (No. 27)
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Valera and Rocchio have been on nearly parallel tracks the past two years, moving up from High A to Double A and then Double A to Triple A within two weeks of each other. Rocchio is the safer bet with the higher floor, but Valera offers more upside, especially with the bat, where he could be a high-OBP, 30-homer guy if he can keep his contact rate intact. Valera works the count extremely well, rarely chasing fastballs out of the zone, and is comfortable hitting with two strikes, only expanding slightly in those counts. He has very easy power to pull and the other way, with 30 homers a realistic projection for him, especially as he continues to learn which pitches to take and which to attack. After barely facing southpaws in 2021, he showed only a small platoon split in 2022, hitting better against right-handers but making almost as much contact against lefties. He’s a “flashy” player, but I say that as a compliment, as I think the game needs more guys who play with flair and energy. With average defense in right, he could be a huge impact bat who has OBPs near .400 with the aforementioned power, as long as he can hold or reduce his strikeout rate (25.6 percent last year) as he moves up the ladder.
3. Danny Espino, RHP (No. 33)
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2019
Espino looked incredible in spring training and in April, when he made four starts for Akron and punched out 35 of the 68 hitters he faced — not literally, that would be battery — for a strikeout rate of 51.4 percent. Then he suffered patellar tendinitis in his knee, going on the injured list in May … and never returned, as his shoulder came up sore while he was trying to return from the knee injury in late June and early July. When healthy, he shows a four-seamer in the mid- to upper-90s, touching 100, that he works with up in the zone, and then works down with a plus slider with fierce vertical break. He has a curveball that he’s largely dismissed in favor of the slider, and a changeup that’s still a work in progress but was mostly solid-average in late 2021. He also came out throwing strikes in 2022, which was the main area left for him to improve after his incredible season the year before. Now it’s down to health; he’s supposed to be ready for spring training, and if we had a crystal ball that said he was going to hold up all year, he’d be the Guardians’ top pitching prospect — which is really saying something.
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4. Tanner Bibee, RHP (No. 36)
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 156 in 2021
Bibee is yet another command right-hander taken by Cleveland from a California college whose last name starts with B who has entered their system and seen his velocity jump from fringy to plus. The other guy was a fourth-rounder, and Bibee was a fifth-rounder, so the symmetry isn’t quite perfect, but work with me here. Bibee saw his velocity increase across most of the season, to the point where he hit 99 mph a few times in July and August, and was still sitting 93-97 when I saw him at the start of September. His fastball has some ride to it, but it’s probably his third-best pitch. He has a wipeout changeup at 82-84 with late, biting fade to it, and it’s so effective that hitters whiff on it more than half of the time they swing. (Maybe they should stop swinging?) He also has an above-average slider in the mid-80s, up to 88, with solid tilt, that he uses almost exclusively to right-handers, and a show-me curveball that looks pretty but that he probably shouldn’t use more than a few times a game. Even with the big jump in velo, he’s still a strike-thrower, with a walk rate of just 5.2 percent, thanks to a repeatable delivery that keeps him online to the plate, with added deception from his high three-quarters slot. He looks like a potential No. 2 starter, especially if he goes heavy changeup/slider and doesn’t rely too much on the fastball.
5. Gavin Williams, RHP (No. 42)
Age: 23 | 6-6 | 255 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 23 in 2021
Williams fell to the 23rd pick in the 2021 draft despite having clear top-10 stuff and results because some teams were concerned about the health of his back at the time. Cleveland has a history of taking pitchers with medical concerns in the first round, hitting on some (Danny Espino) and whiffing on others (Brady Aiken, Ethan Hankins). Williams might be another hit, as his elite fastball helped him tear through High A and Double A in his full-season debut last year, with strikeout rates of 40 percent and 29 percent at the two levels and an ERA on the season of just 1.96. His fastball is up to 98 mph and he’ll sit 95 with big-time vertical break, while his power slider is an above-average pitch at 86-89 and he’ll show an average curveball with good shape and tight spin. His changeup is a below-average pitch, lacking much deception or action, even though he has a good idea of when and how to use it. Lefties hit for 100 more points of OBP and 200 more points of slugging against him last year, yet he still struck a third of them out on the season, so there’s reason to think he can close that platoon split at least part of the way. The fastball/slider and his above-average control point to a No. 2 starter ceiling if he does.
6. Bo Naylor, C (No. 55)
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 29 in 2018
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Naylor returns to the top 100 after a year off the list — he was No. 42 going into 2021, but had such a disastrous year at the plate, hitting .189/.280/.332 in Double A after the off year and a two-level jump from Low A, that I couldn’t include him last year no matter how much I liked the player. Naylor returned to Double A to start 2022, hit well enough to earn a promotion to Triple A, then hit well enough there (.257/.366/.514) to get a brief call-up to the majors in September. Naylor is still quite young, turning 23 in late February, and shows a broad mix of skills as well as the athleticism to continue improving. He’s a disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase much and has fared better against breaking stuff than most hitters his age at the higher levels. He doesn’t miss many fastballs or changeups, and the power he showed in the minors last year (21 homers) is backed up by his solid contact quality and tendency to put the ball in the air, although he can get too pull-happy. He’s become a solid defender with work and time, but there is still skepticism around whether he stays there long-term. I think he’s a solid regular as a catcher who could also move to some other positions if needed, with mediocre batting averages but strong walk rates and 20-odd homers a year.
7. Will Brennan, OF
Age: 25 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 250 in 2019
Brennan was the Guardians’ eighth-round pick in 2019, so he lost 2020 and went to High A at 23 to start his first full season in 2021, but he’s hit his way to the majors and could end up their starter in center at some point this season. He’s a high-contact hitter who makes enough hard contact for doubles power with maybe 8-12 homers a year, able to stay in center or move between all three outfield spots. He has some platoon split, still making contact against lefties but without the same impact, enough that maybe he needs a right-handed caddy on a good club, which is the only thing keeping him from projecting as a solid-average or better regular right now.
8. Angel Martínez, SS/2B
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 186 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Martínez has one of the best approaches in the Guardians’ system paired with great bat speed, so depending on how much he fills out, he could end up a high-OBP guy with average power. He’s athletic enough for any spot in the infield, but he’s much better at second base and as he gets stronger he’s likely to outgrow shortstop anyway. It comes down to what sort of bat he’s going to have — with more strength, he’ll have more power and better contact quality, and that will give him a chance to be a 55 or better everyday player at second.
9. Jack Leftwich, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 216 in 2021
Leftwich pitched mostly in relief as a fourth-year junior at Florida in 2021, sliding to the seventh round, where Cleveland took him with the intent of returning him to the rotation. His first full year in pro ball was a huge success — he struck out 33 percent of batters he faced, walked just 5.6 percent, and posted a 2.72 ERA between Low A and High A. He’s always had a good arm, so Cleveland worked with him after the draft to develop a better changeup (ditching his split grip) and refine the slider to tighten its spin. He’s got some natural deception to the delivery as well, which should help him as he faces more disciplined hitters. He looks like a clear starter, at least a No. 4 and trending up from there.
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10. Jose Tena, SS
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017
Tena was on the top 100 last year but his aggressive approach caught up with him in Double A last year, as he walked less than 5 percent of the time and posted a .299 OBP with too little contact. He did show similar power to the year before and improved at the plate as the year went on, not to the level that you could handwave away the first half but enough to hold out hope for further improvement. He’s a plus defender at short who doesn’t have to hit a ton to have major-league value, which is how he’s still ninth in a strong system — there’s some floor here, but also still the upside of a strong regular or a bit more.
11. Jhonkensy Noel, 1B
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 250 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2017
Noel is an all-or-nothing prospect. His power is next-level — he hit 32 homers and 26 doubles last year, mostly in High A and Double A, but he makes exceptionally hard contact often enough to believe it’ll carry forward to the majors. He swings so hard, however, that there’s a lot of swing and miss as well, with a 27 percent strikeout rate last year. He’s huge, listed at 6-foot-3, 250, and he’s probably bigger but moves well for a man of his size. He’s played third, left, right, and first, but only the last of those is realistic. If he hits enough to get to the power, it won’t matter, and he’ll be an impact cleanup-type bat.
12. Gabriel Arias, SS
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 217 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016
Arias’ best attribute has always been his age — he’s been young for every level, so his mediocre offensive performances were easy to handwave away as a matter of youth. I think it’s more that he’s not that great of a hitter who has never hit decent-quality stuff, but can play shortstop and has a little pop, which gives him a role as a utility infielder but probably no ceiling.
13. Chase Delauter, OF
Age: 21 | 6-4 | 235 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 16 in 2022
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Delauter was the Guardians’ first-round pick in 2022 but hasn’t played since late March, when he broke his foot while playing for James Madison, and it wasn’t healed enough for him to play last summer or fall. Before the injury, he had a strong track record of performance against weaker competition but struggled when facing better stuff. He opens his front side way too early, cheating to try to get to velocity, which makes him more vulnerable to offspeed stuff away from left- or right-handed pitchers. He played mostly center as an amateur but projects to move to a corner. He did hit well on the Cape in the summer of 2021, looking better with the wood bat, so the Guardians weren’t basing the pick on nothing. He really has to prove he can hit better stuff, though, before I can project him as the sort of above-average regular teams want in the first round.
14. Logan Allen, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 56 in 2020
Allen dominated Double A in the first half of the season, then … uh … was dominated in Triple A in the second half? There’s got to be a better way to say that. Anyway, Allen’s got two good offspeed pitches, but his fastball is just average and Triple-A hitters teed off on it, which forced him to try to work away from contact with it. It’s a vicious cycle that can entrap a lot of finesse pitchers, requiring them to be much better with fastball command to get over the hump. He has some funk and deception in the delivery to help him, but without a ton of life or movement on the fastball, he has to be more precise to avoid becoming a quadruple-A starter.
15. Justin Campbell, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-7 | 219 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 37 in 2022
Beware: The Guardians took another college right-hander with an average fastball and plus control, a demographic with which they have had, shall we say, some modest success before. He’s also got a plus changeup and a solid-average curveball. He’s 6-foot-7 with a little room to add some muscle, but he’ll have to show he can avoid losing velocity moving from pitching once a week to every fifth day — and then add some on top of that. As is, he’s probably a fifth starter, maybe a little better, but I would like to see what his fastball looks like next spring, given what they’ve done with Bibee, Shane Bieber and others.
16. Jacob Zibin, RHP
Age: 18 | 6-4 | 218 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 301 in 2022
The Guardians gave Zibin $1.2 million in the tenth round in 2022 to buy the Canadian right-hander, who was pitching in Florida, out of his commitment to South Carolina. He’s up to 95 with an above-average changeup and promise to his curveball, with a good body for a starter’s workload. He slid to the tenth round in part due to makeup concerns, with reports he didn’t get along with coaches as an amateur. The physical upside here points to the middle of a rotation, though.
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17. Angel Genao, SS
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Genao was one of the best hitters in extended spring training in Arizona last year, and then one of the best hitters in the Arizona Complex League, all at age 19 and as a potential shortstop to boot. Signed in January of 2021 for $1.175 million, Genao is a switch-hitter who takes a big cut, especially left-handed, but gets the bat to the ball more than you’d expect from how hard he attacks the ball. He’s not a lock to stay at short, but moves well enough and has the arm for the position. He’ll move to Low A this year at 20, and if he continues to hit like he has while adding a little strength and power, he’ll be a top 5 guy in the system.
18. Bryan Lavastida, C
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 463 in 2018
Lavastida struggled at Triple A last year, hitting .209/.289/.349, a huge falloff from 2021, although he’s still a potential backup catcher in the majors, good enough to catch infrequently with some power to give him some value.
19. Dayan Frías, SS
Age: 21 | 5-7 | 180 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Frías is strong for his size, with strength in his hands and wrists for some present pop, along with a cannon of an arm that should allow him to slide over to third base or just to end up an infielder who bounces between three positions. He struck out just under 25 percent of the time in Low A last year, slightly high for a shorter guy with a swing that should generate a ton of contact. He might be a year-per-level guy but there’s at least a utility infielder in here.
20. Gabriel Rodríguez, IF
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Rodríguez’s full-season debut in 2021 was disappointing, but he stepped it up with the move to High A in 2022, boosting his walk rate by about 50 percent and gaining over 100 points of slug. He has 60-65 power, especially to his pull side, combining strength and a super-quick bat. He’s played all over the infield but should settle in at third base. His season ended a bit early due to a minor shoulder injury, but this year in Double A could be his breakout.
Others of note
Cleveland signed Jaison Chourio, brother of #3 overall prospect Jackson Chourio, last January for $1.2 million, and the then-17-year-old hit .280/.446/.402 in his pro debut in the DSL. He’s an excellent athlete who can run, throw, and projects to stay in center, with the frame to grow into power but not much on him yet. … Jake Fox is a 55 runner who split time between center and second base this year, looking much better in the outfield, while at the plate he shows good ball/strike recognition but no impact with the bat, and I worry he’s more passive than patient. He’s a pretty good athlete and was just 19 in Low A, finishing fourth in the Carolina League in walks and sixth in OBP. He has to get a lot stronger before he projects as more than a soft utility guy. … Johnathan Rodríguez, the team’s third-round pick way back in 2017 out of Puerto Rico, hit .292/.346/.573 in High A last year before a mid-summer promotion to Double A, where his aggressiveness at the plate was his undoing and he struck out 43 times in 113 plate appearances. It’s real power, though, and he can handle either outfield corner. He’ll return to Double A at 23 to see if he can make further adjustments at the plate. … Second baseman Juan Brito walked more than he struck out last year, with very little power, and he’s a switch-hitter with equal production from both sides last year. The Guardians acquired him from Colorado this winter for Nolan Jones. … Xzavion Curry has two 50/55 breaking pitches with a fringy fastball, getting to the majors briefly last year, with a chance to make the Guardians’ bullpen at some point this year. … Parker Messick was their second-round pick in 2022, a soft-tossing and soft-bodied lefty from Florida State with big spin and deception, coming in at hitters from a low attack angle that fools them into swinging under his fringy fastball. He has a plus change and plus control, so he could end up a finesse lefty in the last spot or two of a rotation. … They took right-hander Tanner Burns with the 36th overall pick in 2020 out of Auburn, but his stuff has backed way up, and he’s working with a 45 fastball and average breaking stuff, walking too many guys and giving up hard contact. … Cody Morris and Hunter Gaddis could be bullpen pieces for Cleveland this year, Morris working 94-95 mph with a good changeup, Gaddis with a 45 fastball but plus curveball and good extension, but I don’t see either as more than a decent reliever. … Isaiah Greene has a great eye at the plate, not just patient but selective, and he’s a plus runner with great baserunning instincts, but there’s still no impact with the bat — he slugged .340 last year as a 20-year-old in Low A. He’s one of two prospects remaining in the system from the Francisco Lindor trade, along with right-hander Josh Wolf, who walked 19 in 22 2/3 innings at the same level. … Doug Nikhazy, their second-round pick in 2021 out of Ole Miss, can spin a plus breaking ball but his fastball is just average and he walked 79 guys in 102 1/3 innings last year. The consensus on him out of college was that he’d have to go to the pen. … Yordys Valdes is an incredible defender at short who puts the ball in play but might have 20 power and doesn’t get on base — like, really. He hit .243/.312/.308 in Low A last year, so there isn’t much hope for the team’s second-round pick from 2019, except that he’s so good defensively I don’t want to omit him completely. … Ethan Hankins, their supplemental-round pick (35th) in 2018, underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-2021, made one rehab appearance in August of 2022, and then was shut down again with further soreness. He was already a big injury risk when they drafted him as a very short strider who missed a month as a high school senior with a sore shoulder, and now he’s thrown one inning in the past three seasons.
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2023 impact
Naylor should be their everyday catcher by midyear. Brennan could take Myles Straw’s job if the incumbent centerfielder has another bad year at the plate. Morris and Gaddis should end up getting spot starts or some relief work. Arias might be their best option for a fifth infielder.
The fallen
Carson Tucker was a reach in the first round in 2020 anyway, but he has just 44 pro games in two years since the minors resumed, with a .139/.267/.234 line, missing most of last year with a forearm strain.
Sleeper
Do I have to choose just one? Fine, I’ll go with Angel Martínez, the position player who combines tools with a fairly advanced approach for his age.
(Top photo of Brayan Rocchio: Allan Henry / USA Today)