Let’s put three current Warriors topics in some context, before the free-agent mayhem begins tonight at 9 …
First, there’s Steve Kerr’s new contract extension agreement, reported to be very close on Friday by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and today confirmed by Kerr himself to NBC Sports Bay Area’s Monte Poole.
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This, of course, was almost a procedural matter in the Warriors universe. Kerr’s original five-year, $25-million deal only had one more season left, Joe Lacob and Bob Myers always wanted to extend it (and in fact had discussions with Kerr about doing it last summer) and Kerr always wanted to keep coaching this team.
If Lacob was willing to pay Kerr $5 million a year back in 2014, before Kerr had ever coached a game, yeah, now, after Kerr has led the franchise to three titles in his four seasons, I’d think the Warriors are just fine with extending him at a higher salary (I would guess in the $7-million to $8-million range) for a few more years and well past the opening of Chase Center in fall 2019.
The Warriors are winning championships and making tons of money. Kerr is at the forefront of it. There is nobody better to do this job. He wants to keep doing it for a long time. Pretty simple.
The only delay last summer, Kerr told me in October, was that he wanted to make sure he was feeling healthy enough to commit over the long term. But by October, he was already pretty certain that a new deal was inevitable.
“I’ve got two years left on my deal and wanted to make sure that everything went well this year health-wise,” Kerr said then. “And I don’t anticipate any issues going forward.
“I don’t have any desire to be anywhere else. So I’m sure when we get down to it, we’ll come to an agreement pretty quickly.”
Which just happened. Timed precisely: Kerr told Monte and others that he wants this deal to go under the radar, right before the wave of free-agent news, and that obviously is a large possibility starting at 9 tonight.
But the Kerr extension does deserve some conversation, at least to finally wipe away some of the outside chatter that he might walk away or that there were any scenarios that could lead to somebody else coaching this team next season and into the next many seasons.
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There are no such scenarios if Kerr is feeling all right, and as he says and those close to him say, he is feeling all right these days — not 100 percent, and he may never feel 100 percent while dealing with the after-effects of a botched back surgery in 2015. But he just coached all 103 regular-season and playoff games and probably looked more energized at the end of it than he did at the start.
He wasn’t going to play this out, either. No hints about bolting to another team in 2019, no fiddling around with salary terms.
“Yeah, I’m a horrible negotiator,” Kerr said in October. “But I’m not going anywhere else. I have no desire to coach anywhere else. I love living here, I love the Warriors, I love working with Bob and Joe. Love the players. I’m not going anywhere.”
Why do I think it’s in the $7-8 million salary range? It could be higher — that’s always possible, especially coming off of back-to-back titles.
But the general parameters I heard back in October were to lift Kerr to the top of the coaching salary ranks (about $7 million per) — but below the level of coaches who also have front-office power, including San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich (reportedly $11 million per) and the Clippers’ Doc Rivers ($10 million, though Rivers has since been stripped of personnel power).
Also, Myers is considered just as vital to the Warriors’ formula; he’s currently making less than $5 million and he could be due for an extension himself relatively soon. If Kerr is at $7-8 million, it’s easy to slot Myers right in there at the same level, eventually.
As Anthony Slater noted on Twitter, there are indications that Kevin Durant could be leaning toward taking a 1+1 deal (one guaranteed year plus one year at his option) from the Warriors instead of anything longer.
If Durant does the shortest term feasible, it’s a two-way situation for him and the Warriors:
It would start at $30 million, $5.4 million less than Durant’s ultimate max (because the Warriors don’t yet have his full Bird Rights), which would save the Warriors a lot of salary plus luxury-tax charges …
AND it would give Durant the option to become an unrestricted free agent again next July (for the fourth straight summer), which is when he’d be eligible for a five-year max deal from the Warriors (who would then hold his full Bird Rights) …
AND it would provide Durant the chance to peruse the Warriors situation for another year (or two, if he doesn’t opt out), while keeping all options on the table, including the possibility that he might want to talk to other teams.
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In summary: Doing the shortest-term deal available would save the Warriors a lot of money this summer and allow Durant to remain with this team after two titles in two seasons, while he keeps all of the leverage for another full season or maybe more.
In recent days, I’ve guessed that a 2+1 deal (two guaranteed years plus a third at Durant’s option) would be the most likely contract result, which would get Durant access to his max salary (using Early Bird Rights only accessible via a guaranteed multiyear deal) and take him through the opening of Chase Center.
But yes, Durant could keep playing it out one year at a time. He has said he doesn’t want to go through this time and again … and yet it could be happening like that, and it’s hard to argue against the logic.
Not a lot of players have the clout and inherent value to do this over a series of summers without risking long-term security, but Durant and LeBron James are two of them — maybe the only two who know they’ll retain max values into their 30s, even if they get hurt — and it is smart business to maintain that leverage for as long as you want it.
If Durant signs a 1+1, then July 2019 (months before the Chase Center opening, interestingly) would be the first time you could seriously consider the chance that he leaves the Warriors.
It’d depend on how next season goes and where he wants his career to continue, of course, and I would think that the odds always favor Durant staying with the Warriors long term. But if he’s OK with taking less money up front once again (remember, he took almost $10 million less than he could’ve gotten when he re-signed with the Warriors last summer), he deserves all the leverage he can accumulate.
Remember, that Durant discount last summer helped prod the Warriors to sign Nick Young to the taxpayer mid-level exception … and meet the asking prices of both Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.
So, could the Warriors land DeAndre Jordan with their mid-level exception? I highly, highly, highly doubt it, though I don’t at all doubt that, as the New York Times’ Marc Stein has reported, the Warriors have had internal discussions about making that offer to Jordan, who declined his player option for next season with the Clippers and is about to become an unrestricted free agent.
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The Mavericks, spurned by Jordan in July 2015 when he agreed to a deal with them then reneged to return to the Clippers, still very much want Jordan. They can offer a starting salary upwards of $24 million. The Warriors can offer a starting salary of about $5.3 million.
Yes, I know Jordan once signed a restricted free-agent offer sheet from the Warriors in December 2011 (that the Clippers matched), yes, he’s one of Durant’s closest NBA friends, and yes, he used to be represented by Myers.
But no, I think the chances of Jordan taking $19 million less per year to sign with the Warriors … are infinitesimal. Of course, the Warriors might call him. They call everybody who is any good and available. Everybody.
So … Dwight Howard for the mid-level, if he’s interested, as USA Today’s Sam Amick is reporting? I can see that one a little more, just because there isn’t a mega offer coming for Howard at this point in his career. He might get the mid-level from somebody else, he might get a little more, but he doesn’t have that huge deal in the offing that Jordan has coming from Dallas.
But still, I don’t think Howard is a fit for the Warriors for obvious and non-obvious reasons.
One, if the Warriors use their mid-level on a center, I think they’d want a mobile, thinking, offensive-minded guy with leadership abilities (to help guide Jordan Bell and Damian Jones) and some youth … and Howard, 32, is not young, has had health issues, and is not quite known as a mentor to younger big men.
Two, Howard has grumbled his way through seasons when he wasn’t the offensive focal point and stopped the offense when was out there and he absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, absolutely would not be the focal point of the Warriors offense if they signed him.
He might barely play in the regular season — and certainly wouldn’t have much of a role in the playoffs against 3-point-focused offenses (read: Houston) — and would Howard, an eight-time All-Star, handle that with the same understanding that Zaza Pachulia and JaVale McGee did last season?
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Three, if they can land 28-year-old Knicks center Kyle O’Quinn, somebody who actually could help this team for many years and is considered a great teammate … why wouldn’t the Warriors do that, instead?
I think they should. And would. Or sign a wing player. OK, let’s see how it all goes.
(Top photo: Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)