Welcome to Getting Technical, a new feature from the women’s basketball writers at The Athletic. Every so often, we’ll let you in on our conversations that happen behind the scenes as we process big news, break down changes in the sport and experience basketball in real time.
With Breanna Stewart’s official announcement that she’s joining the New York Liberty, we processed what this means for the Liberty and the league, if we’re entering a new era for the sport and how this will affect rosters across the WNBA.
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Sabreena Merchant: The biggest free agent is off the market, now that Stewie has decided to join the Liberty, and my first question is: Will Courtney Vandersloot join her?
Chantel Jennings: I mean, she’s finally officially off the market. Was there ever any real doubt that she’d end up in New York? The only surprise to me is that she announced on the same day as Tom Brady’s second retirement. Though, Tom’s felt a bit more spur of the moment and I’m guessing Stewie didn’t want to wait any longer to share her news. Also, it’s his second retirement. C’mon, Tom.
As to Vandersloot, there were two retracted tweets today about her ending up in Seattle. Her agent later said that her options were still open, but my gut tells me she still lands in New York, giving the Liberty one of the most — if not, the most — impressive free agencies in league history. (Obviously, it’s a short history given how the CBA has impacted players’ abilities to move and prioritize themselves, but still, this was one hell of an offseason for New York.)
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Sabreena: The fact that the Liberty brought in Jonquel Jones and Stewart this offseason and could still get to about $175,000 — about $30K short of a max salary — for Vandersloot (assuming Marine Johannès and Han Xu come back at the minimum and they waive one wing) is a testament to how well their front office has prepared for this moment. They deserve to be the favorites for Sloot, even if it would probably mean no Allie Quigley.
Chantel: It would probably, but not definitely, mean no Quigley. There would have to be some interesting math (that has already been done this free agency; see: The Aces securing Candace Parker for $100,000). But I also haven’t been convinced she’s coming back this season. She made a comment after last season’s 3-point contest that she was officially done competing in it and that it was nice to retire — from that contest, specifically — in front of her home crowd. Fast-forward to this offseason: First the reports came out of Stewart and Vandersloot wanting to team up, then came the fact that Chicago wasn’t even a finalist for Stewart … and at that point, I really began to wonder if we’ve seen the last of Quigley in a WNBA uniform.
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So does Sloot end up in New York? I say yes, and for the sake of this story, let’s work under that assumption. They don’t say anything about assumptions, right? Right?
Anyway, this gets me to a larger question. Are we entering the era of WNBA super-teams? And if so, is it a good thing for the league?
Sabreena: I’d argue that we’ve already been here before. We saw the Minnesota Lynx and Los Angeles Sparks face off multiple times in the WNBA Finals in the past decade with a handful of Hall of Famers on both sides. The key difference is that those teams were basically constructed by the draft and trades, whereas players are now deciding where they go, so we’ve combined the super-team and player empowerment eras in one.
As a coastal elitist, having a great team in New York is good business.
Chantel: As a Los Angeles resident, does it also feel good to have Candace Parker and Chelsea Gray so close to home?
Sabreena: As several former Sparks have pointed out, L.A. and Vegas are indeed in close proximity. What a luxury for them!
Despite the leanings of Sparks fans, the Aces were so lovable last year that I don’t think they would be a natural villain this season, even as a super-team. Creating another super-team to challenge them is the best thing that could have happened for the WNBA, especially because it would have been easy for other franchises to wait them out until A’ja Wilson and Parker are free agents after this season. Kudos to the Liberty for going for it.
Chantel: Yeah, there have been super-team eras before (don’t come for me, Comets fans) but the specific concentration of talent on two teams just feels different, at least in contrast to the Lynx’s reign from 2011-17, and the fights put up by the Sparks. During those years, Minnesota still lost seven to 12 games a year. (The Comets, notably, only lost three-to-five during their dominant era, so maybe that’s a closer comparison.)
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I’m looking at how these rosters are shaping up for Las Vegas and New York, and I’m genuinely curious … which other teams (other than each other) could beat them? I don’t know how you defend a front court of JJ and Stewie (Becky Hammon laughs at me as she sits down to watch film), and I don’t know how you slow the scorers for the Aces without somehow throwing a sixth or seventh defender on the court (which maybe Sandy Brondello is looking into? The Liberty have dealt with penalties before for the greater good of their players, maybe it’s no different here!).
Sabreena: Washington provided a good blueprint for how to defend Vegas last year because the Mystics had three perimeter defenders who could each handle one of the Aces’ guard trio without help, leaving EDD/Shakira Austin to tag team on A’ja Wilson. That obviously gets more challenging with Parker as the fifth starter now, but there’s at least some template for success provided a team has strong guard defenders.
As for New York, I think the opposite path is probably correct, where you want your guards to attack theirs as much as possible because Ionescu and Sloot’s defense is the team’s weak link. Still not sure how you’re stopping the Liberty, but at least you can score with them?
Chantel: Teams will just have to settle for beating New York from the outside. But the question is: Can other teams keep up the scoring pace against the Liberty? I think back to last year and how Crystal Dangerfield allowed Ionescu to get into more of an off-ball role, where she flourished in college (she had 8,543 NCAA triple-doubles), and if you’re replacing Dangerfield with Vandersloot, that’s one hell of an upgrade for Ionescu in getting to her spots.
But all of this New York/Las Vegas talk has me thinking of some of the other finalists that Stewart (and the potential Stewart-Vandersloot combo) had on the list. … Where do Seattle and Minnesota go from here?
⛈️ 🐺 🏛️🗽
— Breanna Stewart (@breannastewart) January 20, 2023
Sabreena: The 2024 WNBA Draft should be really good! That’s where I’d start for Seattle. Let Jewell Loyd try to win a scoring title this year, then bring in Cameron Brink (or Paige Bueckers, Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese or any number of other star juniors) to play with her in 2024. Other than Indiana, it doesn’t appear that any teams are trying to tank this season, so the path to a lottery pick shouldn’t be too challenging for the Storm.
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Minnesota is in a weird middle ground now. Cheryl Reeve says they want to win, but the Lynx are not good enough to contend with Vegas and New York. With Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride and the No. 2 pick, they should still make the playoffs. But is that best for their future?
Chantel: Tanking in the W is just so tough given that it’s a two-year total and not just the previous season’s win-loss record. So there are teams that could certainly choose to do that — Minnesota, as you noted, would be one. But if Indiana has another rough year, well, that’s just a talent issue.
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The Sparks are in an interesting position with two first-round picks in 2024 (theirs and the Aces’). Their roster doesn’t currently scream playoff-bound at this point, but a lot more has to shake out still.
I agree with you on the 2024 draft being the place to start for Seattle. I just think of Loyd. Not long ago, she had the prospect of playing with a two-time Finals MVP and the best point guard in the league. Now? What does she think about this season? What does GM Talisa Rhea do with the roster? Loyd is on a one-year deal. You’ve got to build something — even pieces of something — this year to make her want to re-up again next year, right?
Sabreena: I guess the hope in Seattle is that Loyd feels ownership of the franchise and wants to be the foundation of the next great Storm team, similar to Nneka Ogwumike sticking around with the Sparks even as the house fell apart in Los Angeles.
Chantel: Chicago might start looking pretty nice if you’re going to build something though, right? Might be nice to actually be home to build that thing?
(Let’s be clear here: I’m rooting for Gwendolyn Loyd in all of this.)
Sabreena: The idea of another homecoming has to scare the crap out of Seattle, doesn’t it? (Admittedly, I realize the irony of this if Sloot ends up there.) I wonder if you can get out ahead of Loyd’s free agency and try to trade her to Chicago now to expedite the rebuild and get more picks in 2024. The Sky aren’t working with a ton, but the World Cup gold-medalist duo of Kahleah Copper and Loyd would be a strong starting point if Loyd indicates she would prefer a new setting.
But we can’t go this long without talking about the Las Vegas Aces. They may not have added as much talent as the Liberty this winter, but I still think they’re the winners of free agency. They brought in Parker and Alysha Clark and still have the entire closing lineup from last year’s championship win. Has New York done enough to eclipse them yet?
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Chantel: It’s tough, because this is almost like the MVP debate in that there are different ways to look at it — with that award, do you go with the most valuable player or the best player? Both answers are correct. Every team is in a different position, so their starting lines are all different and it makes the finish line hard to gauge. But, Las Vegas did the most with what seemed like not a ton of room to move (while adding a former MVP) while the Liberty did the most to transform their team (while adding multiple former MVPs). Obviously, the reigning champs don’t need to transform that much, so it’s apples and oranges, but still, they both had really successful free-agency periods in very different ways.
Again, a lot of this rests on the assumption that Vandersloot ends up in New York, because without her there, I do have questions about what their PG situation looks like knowing that you want to get Ionescu off-ball (but, I also don’t think you trade Dangerfield to Dallas without feeling confident about some incoming PG).
There’s a lot of offseason and free agency still ahead of us, but it’s always fun to make predictions when you only have 60 percent of the picture, right? So, let’s do it. Who are you 2023 champs and MVP?
Sabreena: My calculus teacher used to say the best predictor of today’s weather was whatever yesterday’s was, and I feel bound by that inertia. The Aces will repeat as champions, ending our 20-plus year drought of no back-to-back winners. As for MVP, the WNBA loves to award the best player on the best team, but I think all of these super-teams will diminish individual player cases. I think we’ll see a truly excellent season from Collier in Minnesota, so she’s my dark horse pick. What about you?
Chantel: I had an English professor who would always say, “If past be present,” and in this case, the past proves that repeating in the league is really freaking tough. The present situation is that we have two teams that are stacked with talent, and a five-game series between these two ends up with a lot of wins — for the sport, for the league, for everyone who gets to watch. As to the team that actually hoists the trophy? (“Hoist” might be a generous term given the league’s recent history in trophies, but that’s for another discussion.) I’ll go with the Liberty. Parker’s homecoming brought Chicago its first championship, and Stewie’s will do the same for New York.
I do think these super-teams could diminish individual play, but maybe that’ll mean that Vandersloot will finally get the recognition she deserves. It’s nearly impossible for a point guard to win MVP, but with how she’s going to set the table for every single person on this New York roster, perhaps the discussion will center on how valuable she is to this team. Because I believe that piece stands true: New York won’t be able to win it all unless Vandersloot is on the roster.
(Top photo of Candace Parker: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)