The Kansas City Royals do not necessarily need Zack Greinke. Club officials project free agents Ryan Yarbrough and Jordan Lyles will combine for 300 innings. Greinke would add perhaps another 150, making the Royals better in 2023 but not necessarily in ’24 if it deprives younger pitchers of the opportunity to grow.
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Still, we’re talking about Zack Greinke, potential Hall of Famer. He might not be a forever Royal, but he was first a Royal and most recently a Royal. To protect against his departure, the team signed Lyles to a two-year, $17 million free-agent deal in late December. The Royals’ fear, then and now, was that Greinke would want a contract reflecting the surge in the market for starting pitchers — a contract beyond their reach.
For Greinke to return to Kansas City, he probably would need to accept a low base salary that could grow with incentives based on innings pitched, according to sources familiar with the team’s thinking but not authorized to speak publicly. The Royals are leaving the possibility open, even if it potentially would leave fewer innings for their younger pitchers.
Greinke, 39, means that much to their fans, their franchise.
The last Hall of Famer to play for the Royals was George Brett, who was elected to Cooperstown in 1999. Carlos Beltrán could be the next, though he might opt for the cap on his plaque to include a Mets logo or none at all. Greinke could be the last, and it’s possible he, too, would not choose a Royals logo.
After that? Salvador Pérez, 32, stands perhaps an outside shot. Bobby Witt Jr., 22, could develop into a Hall of Fame-caliber player. But the chances of a low-revenue team keeping a talent such as Witt for most or all of his career are increasingly remote. As a shortstop, a position that already includes four $300 million players — Carlos Correa would have made five — Witt is perhaps even less likely to stay.
Greinke, then, carries a certain sentimental value for the Royals, the team that drafted him sixth overall in 2002. His first stint with the club was not always easy. Greinke left camp and considered quitting baseball in the spring of ’06. But three years after doctors diagnosed him with social anxiety disorder, he won the American League Cy Young Award.
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After the 2010 season, the Royals traded Greinke to the Brewers, starting him on a career merry-go-around that included tours with the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros. He finally returned to the Royals last season on a one-year, $13 million contract, produced a 3.68 ERA in 137 innings and endeared himself to teammates with his unique personality.
With estimated career earnings of $330 million, Greinke does not need to hold out for every last dollar. But players, no matter how much money they have made, are like anyone else, wanting to be paid what they believe they are worth. Greinke is an intense student of the game. In assessing some of the free-agent contracts less accomplished pitchers received this offseason, he surely has a certain dollar figure in mind. For him to return to the Royals, both sides likely will need to give.
Hey Cardinals, what about Pablo?
Of all the teams that could benefit from a trade for Miami Marlins right-hander Pablo López, the St. Louis Cardinals would rank near the top of the list.
Four Cardinals starting pitchers — Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery — are eligible for free agency at the end of the season. López, who turns 27 on March 7, is under club control for two more years.
The Cardinals, who will face a potential surplus of outfielders once they promote top prospect Jordan Walker, are in position to satisfy the Marlins’ need for offense. And Skip Schumaker, the Cardinals’ bench coach last season, is the Marlins’ new manager.
Lars Nootbaar is perhaps the best fit for the Marlins, who currently project Bryan De La Cruz to be their center fielder. But Nootbaar, under club control for five more seasons, is perhaps the outfielder the Cardinals are least likely to move. The team has been more open this offseason on Dylan Carlson, who has four years of club control remaining. Tyler O’Neill, with two years left, has the least trade value coming off a season in which his OPS+ was barely league average.
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The teams have engaged in at least preliminary trade discussions, sources said. Of course, the last time these clubs made a big trade, it didn’t work out so well for the Cardinals. Who can forget Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Daniel Castano and Magneuris Sierra for Marcell Ozuna in December 2017?
Starting pitchers make gains in arbitration
For some reason, starting pitchers are far more successful in free agency than in salary arbitration. But three of the settlements on Friday’s exchange date represented significant breakthroughs from the players’ perspective.
For more than a decade, David Price and Jered Weaver shared the record salary in arbitration for first-time eligible, non-Cy Young Award winners — $4.365 million, including bonuses. Logan Webb ($4.6 million), Zac Gallen ($5.6 million) and Dylan Cease ($5.7 million) all surpassed that mark in their new deals. Webb is represented by ACES, Gallen and Cease by Scott Boras.
Some on the players’ side considered Webb’s accomplishment the most meaningful, considering he was comparable to other pitchers who failed to exceed $4.365 million in recent years. Gallen was at a higher level, producing nearly the same career ERA+ in his pre-arb seasons as 2020 American League Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, who earned $6 million as a first-time eligible (two other Cy Young Award winners, Dallas Keuchel and Corbin Burnes, earned $7.25 million and $6.5 million, respectively, as first-timers). Cease, coming off his second-place finish to Justin Verlander in the AL Cy Young Award voting last season, had the most compelling case of all.
At first glance, it might seem curious that Cease ended up with only $100,000 more than Gallen. Boras settled Gallen first, knowing Cease would be higher. At that point, Cease could have used Gallen as a baseline, and perhaps pushed the envelope with the White Sox. But because Cease has not won a Cy Young Award, his ceiling still might have been Bieber’s $6 million.
Cease’s career ERA+ is 20 percent above league average. Gallen’s is 36 percent above — higher than even Keuchel’s and Burnes’ were as first-timers.
Astros GM search continues
As spring training approaches, Astros owner Jim Crane has yet to name a replacement for James Click, whom he fired as general manager more than two months ago.
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Crane, though, is actively interviewing candidates for the open position. Among those interviewed, according to sources with knowledge of the team’s process but who are not authorized to speak publicly:
• Former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill, who has spent the past two seasons as Major League Baseball’s senior vice president of on-field operations.
• Atlanta Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown, who has overseen the drafting of outfielder Michael Harris II, infielder Vaughn Grissom and right-hander Spencer Strider since joining the team from the Toronto Blue Jays in January 2019.
• Former San Francisco Giants general manager Bobby Evans, who also interviewed with the Astros before Crane’s hiring of Click in January 2020.
The lack of a GM did not prevent the Astros from signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero, first baseman José Abreu and outfielder Michael Brantley earlier this offseason, or from reaching agreements with six of its eight arbitration-eligible players Friday.
The exceptions were Kyle Tucker, who asked for $7.5 million while the Astros offered $5 million, matching the Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette for the biggest gap between player and club, and righty Christian Javier, who filed at $3.5 million while the team offered $3 million.
Why Giants, Mets are silent on Correa
Carlos Correa spoke freely with me Friday about his problematic physicals, mentioning that the New York Mets took the advice of the same ankle specialist who flagged him as a risk for the San Francisco Giants. Correa’s agent, Scott Boras, also has opined publicly about the process, saying his client’s “orthopedic functionality” should be more telling than his MRI.
Club officials, however, are at a disadvantage in such situations, unable to explain their medical rationales for declining to sign a player. A federal law enacted in 1996, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), protects sensitive patient health information from being disclosed without the patient’s consent or knowledge. The end result, when issues like Correa’s arise, is that only one side of the story often gets told.
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One more note on Correa: He told me he plans to participate in the World Baseball Classic for Puerto Rico, playing the same position he would have for the Mets — third base, alongside shortstop Francisco Lindor.
A’s strike in Asia
The Oakland A’s cannot be considered a force in Asia even after their free-agent signings of right-handers Shintaro Fujinami, a 10-year veteran out of Japan, and Drew Rucinski, who pitched the last four seasons in Korea. The additions cost only a combined $6.25 million in salary, plus a posting fee of $650,000 to Fujinami’s Japanese team, the Hanshin Tigers.
Still, give the A’s credit for pursuing creative ways to upgrade their roster, and for the diligent scouting that prompted the two additions. Fans generally are not aware of such work, and general manager David Forst said several members of the organization contributed to the signings.
A’s assistant GM Dan Feinstein, who oversees the team’s international scouting, makes annual trips to Asia, as well as multiple trips per year to Latin America. Lewis Kim, the A’s scout in Korea, saw Rucinski extensively. And two A’s scouts in Asia played critical roles in the signing of Fujinami.
Toshiyuki Tomizuka, the A’s full-time scout in Japan, began following Fujinami when the pitcher was in high school and continued monitoring him through his struggles in the Japanese minors and majors. In 2019, Tomizuka insisted the team’s Pacific Rim Coordinator, Adam Hislop, see Fujinami in a minor-league game.
Fujinami pitched well, and both Tomizuka and Hislop followed him closely over the next three-plus years. Hislop attended every one of Fujinami’s starts when the 6-foot-6 righty surged in August, and remained positive about his prospects through the posting and negotiating processes.
Both Rucinski and Fujinami figure to start for the A’s next season. Paul Blackburn is coming off surgery to repair a tear in his right middle finger, but is expected to join Cole Irvin in the Opening Day rotation. James Kaprielian, coming off surgery on his AC (shoulder) joint, is perhaps less certain to be ready, potentially opening a spot for Kyle Muller, who came from the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade.
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Other candidates include Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Adam Oller and Adrián Martinez, all of whom made starts for the A’s last season.
And finally …
The free-agent market for relievers has thinned, but several interesting possibilities remain. Among them: Righty Michael Fulmer (.697 opponents’ OPS in 63 2/3 innings last season) and lefties Andrew Chafin (.619 opponents’ OPS in 57 1/3 innings) and Matt Moore (.564 opponents’ OPS in 74 innings.
(Top photo of Greinke: Denny Medley / USA Today)